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Triumph Financial, Inc.
NYSE: TFIN Financials Bank 🔎 Screen
🏹 Trader: 🎯 Near 52W High | BRS 64 Forming View all →
$1.8B
Market Cap
67.3
P/E
5.77
PEG
ROCE
2.8%
ROE
0.12
D/E
OPM
-9.3%
% from 52W High
62
α RS
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for TFIN including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
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Average
Poor
By Category
📊 Sector Averages
About

Triumph Financial, Inc., a financial holding company, provides banking, factoring, payments, and intelligence services in the United States.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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3-Statement Financial Model
Bear / Base / Bull projections · DCF fair value · Reverse-DCF
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📊 MIXED Triumph Financial: Transportation revenue up 23% YoY, targeting 20%+ growth in 2026
Revenue & Profitability
Transportation revenue grew 23% year-over-year in Q1 2026, with expectations of at least 20% growth for the full year. Factoring segment revenue is expected to grow in the low teens. The banking segment saw yield compression due to declining rates and mortgage warehouse deposits. Operating earnings per share remained around $1 in Q1 2026, consistent with the Q4 2025 run rate.
Outlook
Management sees a structural change in trucking capacity due to regulatory enforcement, potentially ending a four-year freight recession. Average invoice prices rose from $1,769 a year ago to $2,011 quarter-to-date in April. They are optimistic about a tighter market but cautious about risks from higher oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and the Supreme Court case on broker liability.
Growth Drivers
Key growth levers include Factoring client growth (pipeline stronger), Payments repricing (three-to-four-quarter ramp), LoadPay account growth, and Intelligence net new logos (50 added in past two quarters). Management expects transportation revenue to grow at least 20% in 2026, driven by organic customer gains and improving invoice prices.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Not discussed in this earnings call.
Margins
Factoring operating margin improved 80% year-over-year, on track to exit 2026 at around 40%. Payments EBITDA margin is progressing toward 50%, currently near 40%. Intelligence gross margins are being maintained while revenue grows. Overall expenses are expected to stay relatively flat, creating operating leverage from 20% revenue growth.
Key Risks
Risks include the Supreme Court case on broker liability (could inject volatility), higher oil prices slowing demand, geopolitical instability, and regulatory changes. Management also noted the asset sensitivity of the bank segment as rates decline. The freight recession has suppressed margins, but structural capacity shifts are now a tailwind.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-22
Strong Q2 results driven by higher invoice prices and robust organic growth, with the factoring segment achieving 40% operating margin and LoadPay nearing EBITDA breakeven by 2027. Transportation revenue growth is expected to materially exceed targets, supported by favorable market normalization.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-22
Factoring and Payments segments delivered strong revenue and margin growth, with Factoring operating margin up 80% year-over-year and Payments EBITDA margin approaching 50%. Transportation revenue rose 23% despite a tough freight market, and expenses are expected to remain flat, driving operating leverage.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-01-27
Fourth quarter results showed strong margin expansion in payments and factoring, with core payments EBITDA margin at 29.5% and factoring pre-tax margin at 33%. LoadPay is set to triple revenue in 2026, and expense savings from asset sales are now part of the run rate.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-16
Revenue and margin growth continued despite market headwinds, with a 5% expense base reduction and a 20% annual transportation revenue growth target. Payments and Intelligence segments are driving incremental revenue, while efficiency and technology investments support flat expenses into 2026.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-17
Strong revenue growth in transportation segments, improved credit quality, and successful USPS dispute resolution highlighted the quarter. Greenscreens integration is driving higher contract values, while payments and intelligence segments are set for accelerated growth and improved margins.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
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Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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