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Smurfit Westrock Plc
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NYSE: SW Consumer Discretionary Packaging & Containers 🔎 Screen
S&P 500
🏹 Trader: 🚀 Stage 2 + Near High 📈 Stage 2 🎯 Near 52W High 💎 VCP Breakout | BRS 80 Ready View all →
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$25.8B
Market Cap
29.1
P/E
0.30
PEG
4.1%
ROCE
3.9%
ROE
0.73
D/E
5.5%
OPM
-2.4%
% from 52W High
74
α RS
🔍 SW is showing a near-52W-high setup because it's within 2.4% of its 52-week high, RS Rating is 74, and an ECS of 67 last quarter. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? 52W High RS Rating ECS
Sources
2.4% from 52W high · RS Rating 74 · ECS 67
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Currency-adjusted total returns for SW including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
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About

Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and internationally.

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Mixed quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Revenue
$8.03B
+1.1% YoY
Adjusted EBITDA
$1.14B
-6.0% YoY
Adjusted EBITDA Margin
14.2%
-1.1pp YoY
Net Income
$88M
vs -$26M prior year
What Went Right
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $1.14B and 14.2% margin despite significant input-cost inflation, especially freight.
  • North America quality metric improved over 25% year-to-date; mill system is fully booked with no commercial downtime expected.
  • EMEA/APAC corrugated volumes rose 1.9% absolute and 1.5% same-day; Latin America kept delivering strong returns.
What to Watch
  • Freight costs are now a ~$300M year-on-year headwind versus a ~$50M assumption in April, driven by Middle East conflict and transport tightness.
  • Full-year adjusted EBITDA is guided to $4.9-$5.1B, but price recovery lags mean cost pressure is felt immediately while pricing flows through later.
  • North American box margins are only ~3-4% and roughly 20 loss-making converting plants remain; the turnaround is still in early innings.
Management Guidance
  • Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA expected to be approximately $1.3B.
  • FY2026 adjusted EBITDA expected in the range of $4.9B-$5.1B.
  • Quarterly dividend of $0.4523 per ordinary share, payable September 10, 2026.
Investor Lens
The thesis is broadly intact but the payoff has shifted later: Q2 was hit by a sharp freight-cost spike, while volume progress, pricing initiatives and operational execution are moving in the right direction. The $100/ton containerboard and €80/ton European recycled increases are unlikely to contribute much to 2026, making margin recovery largely a 2027 story. Sold-out paper mills and a strong new-business pipeline support confidence. However, the $300M freight headwind and modest North American box margins mean the medium-term plan still depends heavily on execution.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📊 MIXED Adjusted EBITDA $1.14B, but freight inflation pressures margins.
Revenue
Net sales were $8.03 billion, up about 1.1% year-on-year from $7.94 billion. North American corrugated volumes fell 4.8% on a same-day basis as the company exited low-margin business, while EMEA/APAC corrugated volumes rose 1.5% same-day and Latin America grew.
Profitability
Net income swung to $88 million from -$26 million in Q2 2025; adjusted basic EPS was $0.35 versus $0.44. Adjusted EBITDA declined to $1.14 billion from $1.21 billion.
Margins
Adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 1.1pp year-on-year to 14.2%. The main drag was freight, with costs now expected to be ~$300 million higher year-over-year versus a ~$50 million headwind assumed in April; lower economic downtime of ~$100 million partly offset.
Balance Sheet
Operating cash flow was $765 million versus $829 million a year ago. Full-year capital expenditure is expected to be $2.4-$2.5 billion, and the company retains investment-grade ratings: Moody's Baa2 positive, S&P BBB stable, and Fitch BBB+ stable.
Key Risks
Freight costs remain elevated and show no sign of abatement, with Middle East conflict and transport capacity driving inflation. Energy costs are volatile, with European TTF briefly above €60/MWh, requiring continued pricing actions. Realized price recovery is lagged, so cost pressures hit earnings before containerboard and box price increases flow through in 2026/2027.
Outlook
Management guides Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA to approximately $1.3 billion and full-year adjusted EBITDA to $4.9-$5.1 billion. The announced containerboard and SBS price increases are expected to mainly benefit 2027.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-29
Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.14B with a 14.2% margin in Q2, despite $300M in higher freight costs. Most paper grades are sold out globally, and price increases will mainly benefit 2027 earnings. Full-year adjusted EBITDA is guided at $4.9–$5.1B.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-30
Q1 results were solid despite weather impacts, with adjusted EBITDA of $1,076 million and strong margins across all regions. Demand and pricing are improving, with robust customer wins and a positive outlook for Q2 and the full year.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-11
Delivered record $4.939B Adjusted EBITDA in FY2025, with strong cash flow, margin expansion, and successful integration driving $400M+ in synergies. Outlook targets $5–$5.3B Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 and $7B by 2030, underpinned by operational improvements, disciplined capital allocation, and robust regional performance.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-29
Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.3B with a 16.3% margin, supported by strong North American and Latin American performance, despite challenging demand and market overcapacity. Full-year EBITDA guidance was revised to $4.9–$5.1B, with disciplined capital allocation and ongoing synergy realization.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-30
Q2 saw strong adjusted EBITDA and margin growth, with North America and LATAM leading improvements. Synergy realization and cost optimization are on track, while guidance remains cautious due to macro uncertainty and flat volume expectations for H2.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
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No Investment Recommendation:
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Information Sources:
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