📈 Price History

Ratio Health

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📊 Sector Averages

About

StubHub Holdings, Inc. operates ticketing marketplace for live event tickets worldwide.

Key Ratios Snapshot

📈 Growth Pattern

⚡ Latest Quarter —

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📊 Quick Scorecard

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⭐ Superinvestors Holding STUB

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Manager	Shares	Value	% of Fund	Period
Stan Druckenmiller Duquesne Family Office	1.37M	$8.5M	0.25%	Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

🔍 Concall Decoded

🎙 Management Tone Tracker Confident Specific → Stable 3 quarters analysed

Q3 2025

Confident Specific

Management repeatedly cited concrete metrics (11% GMS growth, 24% ex-Taylor Swift, market share nearing 50%, 4x larger than nearest competitor) and provided clear narratives around strategic investments and long-term vision. They acknowledged headwinds (10% all-in pricing impact) but framed them as temporary and planned.

Q4 2025

Confident Vague

Management expressed confidence in market position and growth, but used vague language around specific metrics like international breakdown and exact timing of revenue from new initiatives. They emphasized 'durable advantages' and 'scaled marketplace' while avoiding precise near-term revenue commitments for direct issuance and advertising.

Q1 2026 latest

Confident Specific

Management uses positive language such as 'solid top-line growth', 'healthy cash flow', 'reiterating full year outlook', and provides specific numbers like GMS $2.2B, 16% adjusted EBITDA margin, 400 bps margin expansion, showing clarity and conviction in performance.

Guidance Reliability Pending · <3Q data

Investor Lens

The investment thesis is stronger after this call. StubHub is delivering on the promise of leveraging its scale to drive both growth and margin expansion, with Q1 showing 7% GMS growth and 400 bps adjusted EBITDA margin improvement. The company's focus on product-led Open Distribution (Distribution Manager, primary integrations) and nascent advertising offers optionality for future upside without reliance on external tailwinds. Strong free cash flow generation and continued deleveraging provide financial flexibility. Key risks to watch include: (1) whether margin expansion can continue at the pace management expects, (2) any macro softening in consumer demand for live events, and (3) regulatory developments (price cap proposals in jurisdictions like the UK or Ontario). Next quarter, focus on whether GMS growth remains on track for the full-year guidance and if further operating leverage materializes as the back-half event calendar (World Cup, sports leagues) ramps up.

AI-generated concall tone analysis · Updated 2026-06-08 · Not investment advice

🎙 Management Tone Confident Specific → Stable 3 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →

📊 MIXED StubHub Q1 2026: GMS $2.2B (+7%), Adj EBITDA margin 16%, reiterates FY outlook

Revenue & Profitability

Revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $446 million. Net income was $48 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $72.1 million, representing a 16% margin, a 400+ basis point improvement. GMS increased 7% to $2.2 billion. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow was approximately $298 million.

Outlook

Management reiterated full-year 2026 guidance: GMS of $9.9–$10.1 billion (8–10% growth) and adjusted EBITDA of $400–$420 million. The live events market remains healthy with strong consumer demand, a robust event calendar, and the upcoming World Cup as a tier-one event. No material macro headwinds have been observed despite some tour cancellations and price cap discussions.

Growth Drivers

Key drivers include continued North American resale growth, international expansion (LATAM and APAC outpacing overall), and market share gains from 2025 investments. Open Distribution with rights holders, advertising (in testing), and AI integrations (Claude, ChatGPT) are early-stage growth levers. The company also aims to expand supply via enterprise-scale sellers and self-serve tools.

Balance Sheet & CapEx

Capital expenditures were approximately 2% of revenue in Q1. Investments are focused on building the self-serve Distribution Manager (AI-powered), direct integrations with primary ticketing platforms, and advertising infrastructure. The company is also making internal AI investments for customer support, product development, and insights.

Margins

Gross margin expanded to 85% (+100 bps), driven by improved unit economics and lower inventory costs. Sales and marketing expense fell to ~50% of revenue (down 500 bps) due to scale efficiencies. Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 16%, expanding over 400 bps. Management expects further operating leverage in the second half of 2026 as the business scales.

Key Risks

Risks discussed include potential regulatory actions such as price caps in the U.K. and Ontario, though management views these as unlikely to gain traction or materially impact the business. Macroeconomic concerns (inflation, recession) have not affected demand, but the company acknowledges the resilience of live events historically. Dilution from equity awards is managed; low-to-mid single-digit dilution expected for remainder of 2026.

Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice

✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (4 quarters) submit a missing quarter

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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (4)

Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-12

Q2 saw record GMS and revenue, driven by strong World Cup demand and marketplace scale. Margins expanded, cash flow was robust, and guidance for full-year GMS was raised. Regulatory risks remain limited, and new monetization avenues like advertising and open distribution are progressing.

Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-13

Q1 2026 saw 7% GMS growth to $2.2B, 12% revenue growth, and adjusted EBITDA margin up to 16%. International outpaced North America, cash flow was strong, and guidance for 2026 was reiterated. Investments in AI, distribution, and advertising continue to drive scale.

Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-03-04

Delivered $9.2B GMS in 2025, up 6% year-over-year, with 50% North American market share and strong international growth. 2026 guidance targets 9% GMS growth and $400–$420M adjusted EBITDA, with continued focus on AI-driven product innovation and disciplined capital allocation.

Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-13

Q3 2025 saw 11% GMS growth to $2.4B and 8% revenue growth, despite a 10% headwind from U.S. all-in pricing. Strategic investments in market share, technology, and direct issuance drove gains, with new advertising products set to launch in late Q4.

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