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Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
$452.8B
Market Cap
P/E
PEG
-9.1%
ROCE
-14.7%
ROE
0.59
D/E
-11.1%
OPM
-26.8%
% from 52W High
24
α RS
🔍 SPCX is showing a notable setup because it matches 2 of 39 tracked screener presets and Sector RRG has Industrials in the Improving quadrant with the trail still rolling over. The main caution: rising_margins's Backtest win rate is only 45%. Net: Mixed signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RRG Backtest
Sources
Conviction 2/39 · Industrials in Improving quadrant · Backtest win rate 45%
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Currency-adjusted total returns for SPCX including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
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By Category
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About

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. provides satellite-based broadband services in the United States, Ireland, Canada, and internationally. It operates through three operating segments: Space, Connectivity, and AI. The Space segment designs, manufactures, and launches reusable rockets to provide access to space. It also provides launch services for the deployment of payloads to intended orbits for commercial and government customers utilizing Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy; and engages in the launch and development for the development of spacecraft and the provision of launch and mission services for government agency space programs utilizing Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Starship, and Dragon. Its company's Connectivity segment operates broadband data and communications network by various Starlink satellites in low-earth orbit, delivering connectivity to various consumers, enterprise, and government customers. The company's AI segment operates a vertically integrated AI platform spanning a frontier LLM Grok; AI solutions for consumer and enterprise customers; X, a real-time information, entertainment, and free speech platform; and AI computational infrastructure. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Starbase, Texas.

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Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Revenue
$7.8B
+92% YoY
Operating Income
-$0.1B
+$0.8B YoY (loss narrowed)
Operating Margin
-1.8%
+22.0pp YoY
Net Loss
-$0.5B
+$0.5B YoY improvement
What Went Right
  • Total revenue grew 92% YoY to $7.8B and adjusted EBITDA jumped 191% to $3.5B.
  • Starlink added a record 1.7M net subscribers in Q2, with ARPU stable at $66 and over $6B in U.S. government contracts won.
  • AI segment revenue surged 247% YoY to $2.6B, turning adjusted EBITDA positive at $1.1B with cloud contracts achieving less than one-year payback.
  • Two successful Starship V3 flights were completed; management believes the heat shield problem is solved.
What to Watch
  • The company still posted a net loss of -$541M and a total operating loss of -$143M, with the AI segment losing $1.3B on an operating basis.
  • Heavy capex intensity: Q2 capex was $18.4B (about 86% for AI), and the CFO guided that the next two quarters would be similar.
  • Starlink blended ARPU could decline as geographic expansion shifts toward lower-ARPU markets.
  • Elon flagged the memory supply-demand imbalance (supply +20% vs demand +200% per year), which could push compute costs higher.
  • Execution still depends on regulatory approvals for Starship launch cadence and EchoStar spectrum integration.
Management Guidance
  • No explicit Q3 revenue guidance given; the company expects to reach $100B+ annualized revenue run-rate by December 2026.
  • CapEx: the next two quarters should be very similar to Q2's $18.4B level.
  • Compute capacity: more than 2 GW nameplate by end of 2026; roughly 10 GW (or close to 15 GW at power/cooling level) by end of 2027.
  • Starship: attempt to catch the ship on the next flight; at least one flight per day in about a year.
  • Starlink V3: roughly 1,000 satellites needed for critical mass, expected around Q2 2027.
Investor Lens
The investment thesis is stronger after this call: revenue growth accelerated to 92%, AI cloud contracts are paying back in under a year, and Starlink V3 promises a capacity step-change. The offsets are still large absolute capex and a net loss, but adjusted EBITDA and backlog are building rapidly. Management's confidence in $100B ARR by December and a pulled-forward $1T revenue target suggests momentum is durable.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Strong quarter: revenue +92% to $7.8B, adjusted EBITDA +191%
Revenue
Q2 total revenue rose 92% YoY to $7.8B. Connectivity was the largest segment at $4.3B (+66% YoY), AI hit $2.6B (+247% YoY), and Space delivered $962M (+29% YoY).
Profitability
Net loss narrowed to $541M from $1.0B YoY, a $467M improvement. Adjusted EBITDA rose 191% to $3.5B, and the AI segment turned adjusted EBITDA positive at $1.1B.
Margins
Total operating loss improved to $143M from $970M YoY, lifting operating margin by roughly 22pp to -1.8%. Connectivity operating income grew 79% to $1.7B with about three points of operating margin expansion.
Balance Sheet
Ended Q2 with $100B of cash, equivalents, and marketable securities and $47.5B in backlog. Quarterly capex was $18.4B, of which $15.8B funded AI compute infrastructure.
Key Risks
Management flagged possible Starlink ARPU dilution from geographic expansion, continued heavy AI capex, and a memory supply/demand imbalance. Analysts also probed regulatory approval and GPU supply dependence for compute and Starship ramp plans.
Outlook
SpaceX expects to exit 2026 at a $100B+ annualized revenue run-rate, with compute capacity above 2 GW by year-end. Capex is expected to remain near Q2 levels for the next two quarters, and Starlink V3 should reach critical mass around Q2 2027.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (1 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (1)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-04
Q2 2026 saw 92% revenue growth to $7.8B and adjusted EBITDA up 191%, driven by Starlink and AI expansion. IPO and bond offerings bolstered liquidity, while Starship and Starlink V3 advances set the stage for $100B ARR by year-end.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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