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SM Energy Company
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$4.4B
Market Cap
3.3
P/E
0.55
PEG
10.9%
ROCE
14.3%
ROE
0.59
D/E
33.0%
OPM
-7.4%
% from 52W High
93
α RS
🔍 SM is showing a multi-screen setup because it matches 6 of 39 tracked screener presets, Sector RRG has Energy in the Leading quadrant with the trail still strengthening, RS Rating is 93 (top decile vs market), and it has maintained a 24-day Stage 2 momentum persistence. The main caution: the Price Pessimism preset's Backtest win rate is only 45%. Net: Mixed signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RRG RS Rating Momentum Streaks Backtest
Sources
Conviction 6/39 · Energy in Leading quadrant · RS Rating 93 · Stage 2 streak: 24d · Backtest win rate 45%
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for SM including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
— Excellent
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About

SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas, Uinta Basin, and DJ Basin. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company and changed its name to SM Energy Company in May 2010. SM Energy Company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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3-Statement Financial Model
Bear / Base / Bull projections · DCF fair value · Reverse-DCF
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📊 MIXED SM Energy delivers Q1 results above guidance, raises full-year production outlook.
Revenue & Profitability
Adjusted net income was $309 million ($1.55 per diluted share). Adjusted EBITDAX was $970 million. On a GAAP basis, the company reported a net loss due to a non-cash mark-to-market adjustment on the hedge book. Adjusted free cash flow was $20 million after $180 million of one-time integration costs.
Outlook
Management sees commodity price tailwinds but remains disciplined, not increasing activity based on short-term disruptions. They highlight uncertainty in the market regarding the Strait of Hormuz and infrastructure impacts, and plan to monitor conditions before setting 2027 plans.
Growth Drivers
Growth is driven by merger synergies, operational improvements (e.g., simul-frac, longer laterals), and strong well performance. The company raised full-year production midpoint from 410 to 420,000 BOE per day and expects second half run rate of approximately 430,000 BOE per day and 238,000 barrels of oil per day.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
First quarter capital spending was $672 million, below guidance. Full-year capital expenditure guidance remains unchanged at $2.65 billion to $2.85 billion. The company is maintaining capital while raising production, indicating improved efficiency across basins.
Margins
Lease operating expense and transportation came in below guidance. Completion efficiency improved across basins: 4% in Permian, 6% in South Texas, and 25% improvement from simul-frac in the DJ Basin. The Uinta basin achieved a cash production margin of nearly $40 per barrel, the highest in the portfolio.
Key Risks
Risks include potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and infrastructure constraints affecting the commodity market. Leverage and free cash flow are sensitive to oil prices. One-time integration costs ($180 million in Q1) are largely behind. Cash taxes could increase if oil prices remain high.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-06
Strong free cash flow and rapid synergy capture marked the first full quarter post-merger, with $467 million in adjusted free cash flow, $137 million returned to shareholders, and leverage nearing target levels. Operational efficiencies and asset high-grading are driving improved returns.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-07
Q1 results exceeded expectations with higher production, lower capital, and accelerated synergy capture post-merger. Leverage improved ahead of schedule, enabling share buybacks in Q2, while full-year production guidance was raised and CapEx held steady.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-26
Record 2025 results included higher cash flow, reduced debt, and expanded scale via the Civitas merger. 2026 guidance targets lower CapEx, increased capital efficiency, and a higher dividend, with most free cash flow allocated to debt reduction and buybacks.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 (Q&A) 2025-08-01
Net proved reserves and production grew over 60% since 2020, with strong Uinta Basin performance and improved capital efficiency. Leverage is near target, capital guidance increased for non-op projects, and oil production guidance was raised.
Q1 2025 Q1 2025 (Q&A) 2025-05-02
Integration of new assets is exceeding expectations, with a 30% oil production increase and 20% total production growth targeted for 2025. Free cash flow supports debt reduction, and operational plans remain robust at $55 oil, with flexibility to adjust if prices change.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
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Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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