Loading…
Sunrun Inc.
$2.1B
Market Cap
10.8
P/E
0.92
PEG
-0.6%
ROCE
-22.1%
ROE
2.90
D/E
-4.3%
OPM
-57.4%
% from 52W High
12
α RS
🔍 RUN is showing an earnings-catalyst setup because an ECS of 77.4 last quarter and it matches 2 of 37 tracked screener presets. Net: Partial signal stack, not a recommendation. ? ECS Conviction
Sources
ECS 77.4 · Conviction 2/37
⚖️ Compare 🔒 Generate Report 🔒 Research Packet 📚 Guides
🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for RUN including FX impact
🌏
Click 🌏 Returns tab to load data
📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
Poor
By Category
📊 Sector Averages
About

Sunrun Inc. designs, develops, installs, sells, owns, and maintains residential solar energy systems in the United States.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📈 Growth Pattern
📊 Quick Scorecard
Loading…
⭐ Superinvestors Holding RUN
View All Superinvestors →
Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 2.07M $28.0M 0.04% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

🔒
Premium Feature
AI-generated 10-section company profile — business model, financials, strengths, risks & management quality
Upgrade to Premium
Already a member? Log in
📐
3-Statement Financial Model
Bear / Base / Bull projections · DCF fair value · Reverse-DCF
Open Model →
🎙 Management Tone Confident Specific → Stable 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
📊 MIXED Sunrun adds 19k customers, 73% storage attach, FY26 cash gen $250-$450M.
Revenue & Profitability
Sunrun added nearly 19,000 customers in Q1 2026. Aggregate Contracted Subscriber Value was $1.1 billion, above the guidance range of $850-$950 million. Contracted Net Value Creation was $108 million (guided $25-$125 million). Cash Generation was negative $31 million excluding $28 million of equipment safe harbor investments, due to the timing of project finance transactions. The company ended the quarter with $680 million of unrestricted cash and $626 million of parent recourse debt. Full-year 2026 Cash Generation guidance is reaffirmed at $250-$450 million.
Outlook
Management sees surging customer demand driven by America's need for more power from AI data centers and electrification, alongside an aging grid. The sunset of the consumer ITC (Section 25D) has negatively impacted smaller dealers and affiliates, but Sunrun's subscription model is unaffected. The tax credit transfer market is growing (up ~50% in 2025), with a broadening base of corporate buyers. Full-year 2026 guidance is maintained despite near-term capital market lumpiness.
Growth Drivers
Growth is being driven by a ramping direct sales force, which has grown over 20% since the start of the year. Sunrun hired more than 1,000 salespeople year-to-date, with March seeing over 30% month-on-month growth in sales bookings. The company is on track to resume year-over-year growth in overall installations later in 2026. Higher-value geographies and a storage attachment rate of 73% (up 2 points from Q4) are expanding margins.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Sunrun is prudently investing in equipment safe harboring to maximize ITC levels through 2030. The full-year 2026 guidance includes approximately $50-$100 million of net investment in equipment safe harbor. In Q1, a $28 million net investment in safe harboring was made. The company expects to complete safe harbor investments by mid-2026 (July Fourth deadline) to cover the solar ITC through 2030.
Margins
Upfront Net Subscriber Value per customer was $5,136 in Q1, up over $4,000 year-over-year, driven by higher system sizes, storage attachment, and lower capital costs. Aggregate Creation Costs were up 18% year-over-year on a unit basis due to higher system sizes, higher storage attachment, and adverse fixed cost absorption from lower volumes. However, margins for new customers are expanding, and operating leverage is expected to improve as volumes inflect later in 2026.
Key Risks
Key risks flagged include the pause by certain multinational tax equity investors awaiting FIAC ownership guidance, which could impact pricing and availability of capital. Consumer credit defaults are currently trending slightly above historical levels (low single-digit annual default rates, less than 1% per year). The company also faces general execution risk from ramping direct operations and the potential for continued lumpiness in project finance transaction timing.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
🔒
Free Account Required

Create a free Finmagine account to access Finmagine™ Scorecard.

See how this company scores across 5 dimensions — Financial Health, Growth Prospects, Competitive Position, Management Quality, and Valuation — powered by 30+ computed ratios.

Create Free AccountLog In
🔒
Premium Feature

Upgrade to Finmagine Premium to unlock Ask AI.

Get 25 expert AI analysis templates — Business KPIs, Comprehensive, Forensic Governance, Peer Comparison, Risk-Reward, Full Research Report, IPO Decoder, Red Flag Detector, and more — ready to paste into ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, or Perplexity.

Upgrade to PremiumCreate Free Account
🔒
Premium Feature

Upgrade to Finmagine Premium to unlock Peer Comparison.

Compare this company side-by-side against its sector peers with financial metrics, ratio benchmarking, and relative performance across all key dimensions.

Upgrade to PremiumCreate Free Account
✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
🔍
🔎 See cross-company document search → ?
📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-05
Transition to a direct business model drove higher margins and record storage attachment rates, with positive cash generation and strong growth in storage assets. Guidance was revised downward due to affiliate channel contraction and higher capital costs, but direct business growth remains robust.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-06
Q1 saw 19,000 customer additions, a 73% storage attachment rate, and $1.1B in Aggregate Subscriber Value, with Cash Generation impacted by finance timing shifts. Guidance for 2026 is reiterated, with strong direct sales momentum and expanding market share in storage and solar.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-26
Delivered strong 2025 results with $377M cash generation, 71% storage attachment, and margin-focused growth. 2026 guidance targets $250–$450M cash generation, high single to low double-digit direct business growth, and continued deleveraging.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-06
Reported strong year-over-year growth in subscriber value and cash generation, driven by storage adoption, cost efficiencies, and innovative product offerings. Reiterated 2025 guidance and highlighted expanded capital access and disciplined margin focus.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-06
Q2 saw record subscriber value, net value creation, and storage attachment rates, with strong cost efficiencies and positive cash generation. Guidance for 2025 was raised or reiterated, and the company is well-positioned for upcoming policy changes and market shifts.
🔒
Premium Feature

Upgrade to Finmagine Premium to unlock Catalyst Timeline.

Every result, order win, insider trade, ECS update, earnings-call, and SEC announcement for this company — in one chronological lane.

Upgrade to PremiumCreate Free Account
🔒
Premium Feature

Upgrade to Finmagine Premium to unlock Full Report.

Read the complete Finmagine™ investment research report — comprehensive fundamental analysis, business model assessment, competitive positioning, and investment recommendation.

Upgrade to PremiumCreate Free Account

📊 Analysis Methodology

This comprehensive investment analysis was conducted using The Finmagine™ Stock Analysis & Ranking Methodology, a proprietary framework that systematically evaluates stocks across five critical dimensions: Financial Health, Growth Prospects, Competitive Positioning, Management Quality, and Valuation.

🎯
Discover Our Proven Investment Framework Learn how we analyze and rank stocks using advanced quantitative models, multi-dimensional scoring systems, and dynamic discriminatory ranking techniques that have guided successful investment decisions across market cycles.
📊 Explore The Finmagine™ Methodology

A comprehensive, bias-free framework for analyzing and ranking stocks by Financial Strength, Growth Potential, Competitive Edge, Management Quality, and Value.

Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

⚠️ Important Disclaimers — Please read without fail.

Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

Not SEC-Registered:
Finmagine is not registered as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or any state securities authority. Nothing on this platform constitutes investment advice as defined under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.

Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
The author and/or analyst may currently hold or have previously held positions in the securities discussed. Any such positions are not intended to influence the objectivity or independence of the analysis. This research is produced independently and is not sponsored, endorsed, or commissioned by any company or institution.

Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

Forward-Looking Statements:
This analysis may contain forward-looking statements, forecasts, or projections that are inherently subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Finmagine does not undertake any obligation to update such statements in the future.

Limitation of Liability:
The content is provided "as is" without any warranties, express or implied. Finmagine expressly disclaims any liability for errors, omissions, or any losses incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided. Readers assume full responsibility for their investment decisions.