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The Progressive Corporation
NYSE: PGR Financials Insurance 🔎 Screen
S&P 500
🏹 Trader: 🎯 Near 52W High | BRS 61 Forming View all →
$128.5B
Market Cap
11.8
P/E
1.40
PEG
41.2%
ROCE
40.4%
ROE
D/E
16.5%
OPM
-5.3%
% from 52W High
49
α RS
🔍 PGR is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 14 of 37 tracked screener presets, an ECS of 62.9 last quarter, and it's within 5.3% of its 52-week high. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction ECS 52W High
Sources
Conviction 14/37 · ECS 62.9 · 5.3% from 52W high
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for PGR including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
Poor
By Category
📊 Sector Averages
About

The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📈 Growth Pattern
📊 Quick Scorecard
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding PGR
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Andreas Halvorsen Viking Global Investors 1.62M $320.5M 0.90% Mar 2026
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 559.8K $111.0M 0.17% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Company-wide PIFs
40M+
+2.8M PIFs added
Personal Lines PIF Growth
+8%
vs +16% prior year
Direct Auto PIF Growth
+10%
YoY
Agency Auto PIF Growth
+8%
YoY
Property Combined Ratio
75% in 2025
78% YTD 2026
Q2 Advertising Spend
$1.4B
+16% YoY
What Went Right
  • Became the largest U.S. personal auto writer by trailing 12-month DPW and captured ~75% of 2025 industry premium growth.
  • Property turnaround substantially complete: 2025 combined ratio 75%, YTD 2026 78%; growth-ready states expanded from 18 to 41, covering 82% of the property market.
  • Surpassed 40M PIFs; Q2 was the sixth-best direct auto new-business sales quarter ever, and since 2023 Progressive has created nearly 500,000 Robinsons.
What to Watch
  • Growth is moderating: PL PIF growth slowed from 16% to 8%, June auto PIF adds were 45,000, and auto PLEs were down.
  • Competition is intensifying: average carriers returning rates on comparative raters are up ~30% since Q1 2024, property win rates have fallen, and shopping activity is levelling off.
  • Property availability is still constrained in some states — only 41 of 50 states are growth-ready, with weather/exposure management and regulatory dynamics limiting appetite.
Management Guidance
  • No formal next-quarter revenue or EPS guidance was provided.
  • Reiterated growth objective: grow as fast as possible while staying at or below a 96% combined ratio.
  • Expects to move most insurance entities to a 3.5x premium-to-surplus ratio by the end of 2026.
  • Targeted auto new-business rate cuts: Q2 in 16 states representing 37% of NWP; YTD in 30 states representing 63% of NWP.
Investor Lens
The thesis is stronger after this call: the property turnaround is substantially complete, with 41 growth-ready states and availability more than doubled since Q3 2024, setting up the Robinsons bundled auto/home opportunity. Auto remains a powerful compounding engine with 40M+ PIFs, strong direct and agency PIF growth, and continued segmentation-led rate cuts, though growth will moderate from the 2024-25 peak. The key swing factor is whether agency Robinsons conversion improves as property distribution, availability, and agent incentives expand. Capital flexibility from the 3.5x premium-to-surplus move adds a shareholder-return backstop.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Strong quarter: 40M PIFs, 78% property CR, 8% PL PIF growth.
Revenue
Consolidated revenue was not disclosed on the call. Management cited PL PIF growth of +8% (agency auto +8%, direct auto +10%, property +1%, special lines +6%) and Q2 advertising spend of $1.4B, up 16% YoY; total company PIFs surpassed 40M.
Profitability
Consolidated net income/operating income was not disclosed. Property combined ratio was 75% in 2025 and 78% YTD 2026, down from above 100% in 2022. Auto frequency was down ~2.5% in Q2 and 2% trailing 12 months, with vehicle miles travelled down ~4 points.
Margins
Operating margin was not disclosed. Property underwriting margin improved materially: net combined ratio fell from above 100% in 2022 to 75% in 2025 and 78% YTD 2026. Advertising cost per sale remains below target acquisition cost despite a 16% increase in ad spend.
Balance Sheet
No cash, debt, or free cash flow figures were provided. Over the past two decades, Progressive has generated more than $50B of net income and returned more than $30B to shareholders; management is moving most entities to a 3.5x premium-to-surplus target by end of 2026 and will prioritise reinvestment, then dividends/buybacks.
Key Risks
Competition is increasing — more carriers taking risk and average carriers returning rates on comparative raters up ~30% since Q1 2024 — while shopping activity is levelling off. Auto PLEs were down, and June auto PIF adds slowed to 45,000. Property comparative-rater win rates have fallen after repricing, and weather/exposure risk remains managed via nonrenewals and tighter appetite.
Outlook
No formal guidance was provided. Management reiterated its target to grow as fast as possible at or below a 96% combined ratio, is taking targeted auto rate decreases (Q2: 16 states, 37% of NWP; YTD: 30 states, 63% of NWP), and expects to complete the move to 3.5x premium-to-surplus for most entities by year-end 2026.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-04
Personal lines surpassed 40 million PIFs, with strong auto and property growth, and record direct written premiums. Property turnaround is largely complete, enabling disciplined expansion, while capital flexibility supports increased share repurchases and ongoing investments in technology and distribution.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-05
Q1 delivered exceptional profitability and market share gains, with strong growth in personal and commercial auto segments. Capital efficiency improved through higher premiums to surplus and new debt issuance, while technology and media investments support ongoing expansion.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-03-03
2023 saw record growth in premiums, policies, and profitability, with a 40% ROE and strong capital generation. The company remains focused on disciplined growth, capital flexibility, and innovation, while navigating regulatory and market changes.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-04
Q3 saw strong growth in premiums, policies, and income, with a standout 89.5% combined ratio and robust return on equity. A $950M Florida policyholder credit was recognized due to legislative changes and low storm activity, while competitive pressures and margin management remain key focuses.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-05
Strong profitability and rapid growth continued in 2025, with record market share gains and robust new business across personal and commercial lines. Expense ratios improved, and rate adjustments remain dynamic amid macroeconomic uncertainty and competitive pressures.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
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Information Sources:
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