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About

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of closeout merchandise and excess inventory in the United States.

Key Ratios Snapshot

📈 Growth Pattern

⚡ Latest Quarter —

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⭐ Superinvestors Holding OLLI

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Manager	Shares	Value	% of Fund	Period
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management	1.04M	$96.0M	0.12%	Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

🔍 Concall Decoded

🎙 Management Tone Tracker Confident Specific → Stable 4 quarters analysed

Q2 2026

Confident Specific

Management used phrases like 'very strong second quarter', 'operating with the wind in our sails', 'ahead of expectations', and 'raising full-year outlook across the board', supported by concrete details (e.g., 5% comp, 39.9% gross margin, 26.9% EPS growth, 85 new store target).

Q3 2026

Confident Specific

Management repeatedly used phrases like 'another strong performance', 'record number of new stores', 'industry-leading sales growth', and raised full-year guidance. Specific metrics were provided (e.g., 32 new stores, 3.3% comp, 12% membership growth) showing conviction.

Q4 2026

Confident Specific

Management repeatedly emphasized record performance, raised long-term comp and margin targets (2% comp, 40.5% gross margin), and announced a stepped-up share buyback commitment, using phrases like 'exceptional year', 'inflection point', and 'off the charts deal flow'.

Q1 2027 latest

Confident Specific

Management led with 'strong earnings growth' and 'outstanding performance' while explicitly detailing weather and fuel headwinds, e.g., 'unseasonable weather and surging fuel prices put pressure on key categories.' They provided granular regional comp differences and consumer trade-down data, showing both confidence and transparency.

Guidance Reliability Pending · <3Q data

Investor Lens

The investment thesis remains largely unchanged after this call. Management reaffirmed the mid-teens earnings growth algorithm and maintained full-year guidance despite Q2 headwinds from weather and the lower-income consumer. They cited strong deal flow and buying power that allows reinvestment in price without sacrificing margins. The raised EPS outlook and increased buyback ($125M) signal confidence. However, the dependence on weather normalization and the consumer's trip consolidation are near-term risks. Key watch items: whether Q2 seasonal pent-up demand materializes, how price investments impact comps, and if trade-down from higher-income consumers accelerates enough to offset lower-income pressure. Overall, the thesis is intact but with moderate caution tied to macroeconomic variables.

AI-generated concall tone analysis · Updated 2026-06-08 · Not investment advice

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3-Statement Financial Model

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🎙 Management Tone Confident Specific → Stable 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →

📊 MIXED Discount retailer with 672 stores, Q1 revenue $659M, comps +1.7%, 17.5M loyalty members.

Revenue & Profitability

Net sales increased 14% to $659 million, driven by new store openings and comparable store sales growth of 1.7%. Adjusted net income rose 21% to $56 million, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.91. Adjusted EBITDA grew 22% to $88 million, representing an 80-basis-point margin expansion to 13.3%. Full-year fiscal 2027 guidance includes net sales of $2.98-$3.00 billion, comparable store sales growth of approximately 2%, and adjusted net income per share of $4.45-$4.55.

Outlook

Management noted a challenging consumer environment, with lower-income customers consolidating trips due to surging fuel prices and shopping closer to need. Weather-sensitive categories underperformed, particularly in the South, while consumables remained strong. The company expects second-quarter comparable store sales to be similar to the first quarter (up 1.7%), with potential pent-up demand in seasonal categories if weather normalizes. Trade-down from higher-income consumers accelerated in Q1, but overall traffic was only slightly positive due to trip consolidation.

Growth Drivers

Key growth levers include opening 75 new stores in fiscal 2027, including entry into Minnesota and rapid expansion in the Midwest. Store-level productivity initiatives, such as replacing wall-to-wall carpet with living room furniture (improving sales productivity by over 100% in that space), are being tested and expanded. The Ollie's Army loyalty program is a priority, attracting new members and driving retention through exclusive events like Ollie's Army Night and Ollie's Army Days. Category optimization, including rightsizing books and flooring, is expected to further drive sales productivity.

Balance Sheet & CapEx

Capital expenditures for fiscal 2027 are guided at $103-$113 million, including approximately $20 million for distribution center expansions in Texas and Illinois. The Texas DC expansion is expected to be completed early in the third quarter, and the Illinois expansion will begin later this year, increasing overall network capacity to over 850 stores. Additional investments include upgrading warehouse execution systems; the Texas DC upgrade was completed in the first quarter, delivering productivity benefits. The company also repurchased $53 million of its common stock in Q1 and targets $125 million in buybacks for the year.

Margins

Gross margin increased 80 basis points to 41.9% in Q1, above expectations, driven by lower supply chain costs (tariff relief more than offsetting higher fuel costs) and slightly higher merchandise margins. Full-year gross margin guidance is 40.7%. SG&A expenses were flat as a percentage of sales, well managed despite higher utilities. Management expects gross margin cadence for the balance of the year to be similar to last year, with the bias to invest in price to drive market share while maintaining margin guidance. Lower shrink is also contributing to margin improvement.

Key Risks

Risks flagged by management include weather volatility, which pressured seasonal categories in Q1 and early Q2; surging fuel prices leading to trip consolidation among lower-income consumers; and tariff uncertainty, with higher pre-SCOTUS tariff assumptions embedded in second-half guidance and no assumed tariff refunds. The company also noted consumer shopping closer to need and deferring non-essential purchases, which could continue if economic stress persists. Supply chain constraints in the Texas distribution center due to slower selling of bulky seasonal products were a risk specific to the southern region.

Generated by AI · Q1 2027 results · Not investment advice

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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter

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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)

Q1 2027 Q1 2027 2026-06-03

Q1 2026 saw strong earnings growth, 14% sales increase, and margin expansion, despite weather and fuel headwinds. Guidance was raised for EPS and buybacks, with 75 new stores planned and robust loyalty growth. Closeout deal flow and supply chain productivity remain key strengths.

Q4 2026 Q4 2026 2026-03-12

Strong Q4 and FY25 results featured 17% sales growth, 3.6% comp growth, and record new store openings. Guidance for FY26 includes 75 new stores, 2% comp growth, 40.5% gross margin, and stepped-up share repurchases. Retail consolidation and value-seeking trends continue to drive performance.

Q3 2026 Q3 2026 2025-12-09

Q3 saw record store openings, strong sales and earnings growth, and robust customer acquisition, prompting a raised full-year outlook. Digital marketing and supply chain investments fueled momentum, while stores near closed competitors outperformed.

Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2025-08-28

Second quarter results exceeded expectations with 18% sales growth, strong new store performance, and record customer engagement. Full-year guidance was raised, supported by robust deal flow, margin expansion, and continued market share gains amid industry disruption.

Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2025-06-03

Record Q1 growth was driven by 25 new store openings and strong comparable sales, with Ollie's Army loyalty membership up 9%. Fiscal 2025 guidance was reaffirmed, targeting 75 new stores, 1.4%–2.2% comp growth, and a 40% gross margin, despite ongoing tariff and supply chain headwinds.

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Investment Risk:
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