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Norfolk Southern Corporation
S&P 500
🏹 Trader: 🎯 Near 52W High | BRS 75 Ready View all →
$78.9B
Market Cap
22.6
P/E
3.36
PEG
11.2%
ROCE
19.2%
ROE
1.06
D/E
35.8%
OPM
-0.1%
% from 52W High
73
α RS
🔍 NSC is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 9 of 37 tracked screener presets, RS Rating is 73, and it's within 0.1% of its 52-week high. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RS Rating 52W High
Sources
Conviction 9/37 · RS Rating 73 · 0.1% from 52W high
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📈 Price History
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About

Norfolk Southern Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods in the United States.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding NSC
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Daniel Loeb Third Point LLC 100.0K $28.7B 1.38% Mar 2026
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 8.3K $2.4M 0.00% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Revenue
$3.5B
+11% YoY
Adjusted Operating Income
$1.2B
+5% YoY
Adjusted Operating Ratio
65.5%
+210 bps YoY
Adjusted Diluted EPS
$3.52
+7% YoY
What Went Right
  • Record Q2 revenue of $3.5B, up 11% YoY, with record revenue even excluding fuel and 4% volume growth.
  • Adjusted EPS rose 7% to $3.52, and adjusted operating income rose 5% to $1.2B, ahead of internal expectations.
  • Commercial momentum broad-based: Merchandise revenue ex-fuel +4%, Intermodal revenue ex-fuel +7%, and Coal volumes +3%.
  • Safety improved: personal injury index down 16% YoY and train accident rate down 25% YoY; on-time originations up 20% in the last month.
What to Watch
  • Adjusted operating ratio worsened 210 bps YoY to 65.5%, with fuel alone contributing ~110 bps of headwind and inflation another ~190 bps.
  • 2026 OPEX guidance was raised by $400M–$500M due to fuel, lifting the range to $8.8B–$8.9B from $8.2B–$8.4B.
  • Network service is still recovering from winter disruptions and volume surges, with crew shortages and terminal variability requiring continued attention.
  • Merger-related intermodal share losses were roughly 3 points of growth, and tariff/trade uncertainty continues to weigh on international volumes.
Management Guidance
  • 2026 operating expense guidance raised to $8.8B–$8.9B from $8.2B–$8.4B, driven by ~$400M–$500M of incremental fuel expense.
  • 2026 CapEx guidance unchanged at approximately $1.9B.
  • Cost takeout target remains at least $150M in 2026 and at least $650M cumulative over the three-year period.
  • Q3 adjusted operating ratio expected to beat normal sequential seasonality by up to 100 bps, despite the ~4% wage increase effective July.
Investor Lens
The thesis is stronger after this call: record revenue, 7% adjusted EPS growth, and an inflection across domestic intermodal, chemicals, and coal validate the volume recovery. The main negative is the 210 bps OR deterioration and the $400M–$500M fuel-driven OPEX increase, which show how much macro cost pressure still suppresses margin conversion. With service metrics now improving and the truck market firming, the setup into H2 is better, but the proof point is whether Q3 really beats normal seasonality by up to 100 bps despite wage inflation.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Record Q2 revenue and 7% adjusted EPS growth, but OR headwinds linger.
Revenue
Q2 revenue was $3.5B, an all-time quarterly record, up 11% YoY on 4% volume growth and six points from fuel surcharge. Merchandise revenue ex-fuel rose 4%, Intermodal revenue ex-fuel rose 7%, and Coal volumes rose 3%.
Profitability
Adjusted operating income rose 5% to $1.2B, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 7% to $3.52, with net income also up 7%. GAAP EPS was $3.26, down 4% after $51M of merger-related expenses, $15M of Eastern Ohio-related costs, and $6M of restructuring charges.
Margins
Adjusted operating ratio was 65.5%, 210 bps worse YoY, with fuel driving ~110 bps and inflation ~190 bps of headwind; volume and RPU helped offset some of that pressure. Management expects Q3 OR to beat normal sequential seasonality by up to 100 bps even with a ~4% July wage increase.
Balance Sheet
2026 CapEx guidance remains unchanged at approximately $1.9B. Debt, cash, and free cash flow were not discussed on the call; the quarter included $51M in merger-related costs and $15M in Eastern Ohio incident costs.
Key Risks
Management flagged sustained high fuel prices as a potential demand risk if crude stays elevated for a prolonged period, plus tariff and trade uncertainty weighing on international intermodal. Service is still normalizing from winter disruptions and volume surges, and merger-related share losses created roughly 3 points of intermodal growth headwind.
Outlook
2026 operating expense guidance was lifted to $8.8B–$8.9B from $8.2B–$8.4B, reflecting $400M–$500M of incremental fuel. Core operating costs are trending toward the higher end of the prior range on stronger volumes, while cost takeout of at least $150M in 2026 and cumulative savings of at least $650M remain intact.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-23
Q2 saw 7% growth in net income and EPS, driven by strong volume and revenue gains across key markets, despite higher fuel and inflationary costs. Updated expense guidance reflects fuel headwinds, but margin improvement is expected as fuel costs ease and operational efficiencies continue.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-24
Q1 saw flat revenue and a 1% cost increase despite inflation and fuel headwinds, with strong safety gains and productivity improvements. Intermodal and coal volumes diverged, while merger progress and new partnerships support future growth.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-01-29
2025 saw strong productivity and safety gains, with record merchandise revenue offsetting softness in Intermodal and coal. Cost discipline and asset efficiency enabled a $300 million CapEx reduction for 2026, while the pending merger and macro uncertainty remain key risks.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-23
Third quarter results showed modest revenue growth and strong productivity gains, offset by macro headwinds and competitive pressures from the pending merger. Intermodal volumes declined, coal revenue faced export weakness, and cost controls remained a focus.
Q1 2025 Q1 2025 2025-04-23
Q1 2025 saw 8% adjusted EPS growth and a 1% volume increase despite severe winter storms and $35M in restoration costs. Operational improvements, cost savings, and strong insurance recoveries supported results, while full-year guidance for 3% revenue growth and 150 bps OR improvement was reiterated.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
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