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Neptune Insurance Holdings
NYSE: NP Financials Insurance 🔎 Screen
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$3.5B
Market Cap
P/E
PEG
252.6%
ROCE
-21.2%
ROE
D/E
44.5%
OPM
-2.6%
% from 52W High
80
α RS
🔍 NP is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 9 of 37 tracked screener presets, Sector RRG has Financials in the Improving quadrant with the trail still strengthening, and RS Rating is 80. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RRG RS Rating
Sources
Conviction 9/37 · Financials in Improving quadrant · RS Rating 80
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for NP including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
Poor
By Category
📊 Sector Averages
About

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, Neptune Flood Incorporated, operates as an insurance agency that engages in selling residential and commercial flood insurance policies on behalf of insurance carrier partners in the United States.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding NP
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 160.7K $3.9M 0.01% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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📊 MIXED Neptune Insurance Q1: $37.8M revenue, 57% EBITDA margin, record sales, AI-native flood MGA
Revenue & Profitability
For Q1 2026, Neptune reported revenue of $37.8 million, up 29% year-over-year; net income of $7.3 million; adjusted net income of $13.4 million; and adjusted EBITDA of $21.6 million, up 26% YoY. Trailing twelve-month revenue per employee was $2.8 million and adjusted EBITDA per employee reached $1.7 million, both record levels. The company ended the quarter with $227 million of debt outstanding on its revolver (2.2x trailing EBITDA) and subsequently paid down $5 million.
Outlook
Management is highly optimistic about the industry opportunity, citing 20 million uninsured at-risk properties in the U.S. and the shrinking NFIP (60% of its policyholders could save by switching to Neptune). While government policy (FEMA) remains uncertain, the company sees bipartisan support for private flood insurance. Macro headwinds include a slow housing market and residual effects of prior storm seasons, but a pickup in housing turnover would be a major tailwind. For 2026, Neptune raised revenue guidance to $195 million and expects full-year EBITDA margins of 60-61%.
Growth Drivers
Growth is driven by record first-quarter new business sales, increasing agent engagement (over 45,000 agents signed up via the new user-based login system, with nearly 11,000 binding new business from December to March), and a growing panel of capacity providers (42 reinsurers). New AI-powered initiatives include Atlas Plus (agentic assistant), a ChatGPT-based quoting application, and a beta test for earthquake insurance in California. The company also benefits from positive rate on renewals (mid-to-high single digits in 2026 after a 13% average increase in 2025).
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Not discussed in this earnings call as a separate CapEx line item, but management emphasized significant investment in AI infrastructure (Proteus, Atlas Plus, ChatGPT app) and capacity expansion (renewed one of eight programs with increased size and two additional reinsurers). The company plans to fund its $100 million share repurchase program through free cash flow over two years, and continues to prioritize platform investment as the first dollar of capital allocation.
Margins
Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin was 57.1%, lower than full-year expectations due to seasonality (Q1 has lowest revenue at ~18% of annual) and front-loaded public company audit/compliance costs. Management expects full-year adjusted EBITDA margins of 60-61% and believes the current level represents a floor, not a ceiling, as AI-driven automation continues to improve efficiency. Trailing twelve-month revenue per employee ($2.8M) and adjusted EBITDA per employee ($1.7M) underscore operating leverage.
Key Risks
Key risks highlighted in the call include: variability in hurricane season activity (assumption of 1.8 landfall hurricanes on average); the ongoing slow U.S. housing market dampening policy turnover; potential changes in government policy (FEMA, NFIP reform); and the residual impact of prior storm-driven buying surges creating difficult comparisons. Additionally, the lack of a major hurricane in 2025 may lead to overconfidence and losses among newer competitors, but Neptune's portfolio is managed prudently.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (4 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (4)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-22
Record quarterly results with 33% revenue growth, 36% adjusted EBITDA growth, and a 62% margin, driven by technology, expanded distribution, and AI-powered agent tools. Raised 2026 guidance to $199 million revenue and 60%-61% EBITDA margin, with strong policy retention and loss ratio improvement.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-22
Record Q1 results with 29% revenue growth and strong profitability driven by AI-powered innovations and agent network expansion. Full-year guidance raised to $195M revenue and 60%-61% EBITDA margin, with a $100M stock repurchase program announced.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-18
Delivered record Q4 and 2025 results with 39% revenue growth and 60%+ EBITDA margins, driven by AI-powered underwriting, expanded capacity, and strong agent distribution. Raised 2026 guidance and maintained high retention, while prioritizing debt reduction and capital flexibility.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-12
Q3 2025 saw record revenue and profitability, driven by strong new business and retention, with 2026 guidance targeting $186–$189 million in revenue and a 60–61% EBITDA margin. The company expanded nationwide, added new capacity partners, and benefited from NFIP disruptions.
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📊 Analysis Methodology

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
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No Investment Recommendation:
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Information Sources:
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