📈 Price History

Ratio Health

— Excellent

— Good

— Average

— Poor

By Category

📊 Sector Averages

About

NextDecade Corporation, an energy company, engages in the construction and development activities related to the liquefaction of natural gas in the United States.

Key Ratios Snapshot

📈 Growth Pattern

⚡ Latest Quarter —

See full financials →

📊 Quick Scorecard

Loading…

⭐ Superinvestors Holding NEXT

View All Superinvestors →

Manager	Shares	Value	% of Fund	Period
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management	456.8K	$3.5M	0.00%	Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

🔍 Concall Decoded

🎙 Management Tone Tracker Confident Specific → Stable 2 quarters analysed

Q4 2025

Confident Specific

Management uses precise progress percentages (65% complete for Trains 1&2, 7.8% for Train 4), reaffirms budget and schedule, and cites strong customer demand. Executives repeatedly state 'high confidence' and 'on budget, ahead of schedule', avoiding hedging language.

Q1 2026 latest

Confident Specific

Management consistently used specific progress percentages (e.g., trains 1-2 67.8% complete, 175 TBtu early cargo sold with >$3/MMBtu margin) and forward-looking commitments ('tracking ahead of schedule', 'strong demand'), projecting certainty in execution without hedging language.

Guidance Reliability Pending · <3Q data

Investor Lens

The investment thesis is stronger after this call. Construction is tracking ahead of schedule with a buffer, early LNG cargoes have been partially sold at attractive margins, and the Iran conflict has tightened global LNG supply, boosting demand for long-term US contracts – directly benefiting NextDecade's expansion plans. Management provided specific progress metrics without hedging, increasing confidence in first gas and LNG timelines. However, the company still faces execution risk on commissioning and startup of the first train, and financing for Train 6 depends on project-level debt and equity markets. Key items to watch next quarter: update on first gas timing, any further early cargo sales, and progress on the FERC application for Train 6.

AI-generated concall tone analysis · Updated 2026-06-09 · Not investment advice

🎙 Management Tone Confident Specific → Stable 2 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →

📊 MIXED NextDecade progressing Rio Grande LNG; Train 1 first LNG expected first half 2027.

Revenue & Profitability

Actual revenue, net income, and operating income were not discussed in this call. The company provided guidance on distributable cash flow: early volumes at a $5/MMBtu margin could generate approximately $2 billion in NextDecade's share, and at $3/MMBtu margin, approximately $1.2 billion. Steady-state annual distributable cash flow is projected at $500 million pre-flip and $800 million post-flip in the base case.

Outlook

Management sees a tight LNG market due to the Iran conflict, which pulled approximately 14 million tons out of supply via the Strait of Hormuz closure. Repairs at Ras Laffan (13 MTPA damaged) are estimated to take 3-5 years. Demand for long-term U.S. LNG SPAs is increasing, with Henry Hub pricing providing a buffer. Tailwinds include current administration support and the Defense Production Act; headwinds include potential short-term demand destruction in price-sensitive markets.

Growth Drivers

Key growth levers include advancing Trains 6-8 development and permitting, with Train 6 FID targeted for second half 2027. The company is also focusing on commissioning Train 1 to generate early cash flows and selling forward cargoes to reduce market exposure. Commercialization efforts for Train 6 are underway, with a sales pipeline larger than its capacity.

Balance Sheet & CapEx

The company has over $9 billion in credit facility commitments for Phase I, about $3.8 billion for Train 4, and $3.6 billion for Train 5. Construction is within budget across all trains. They plan to refinance bank debt into bullet and amortizing securities. For Train 6, they expect project-level debt to cover up to 75% of costs, with equity funded via FinCo and other alternatives. No total CapEx figure was provided.

Margins

In February 2026, the company sold over 175 TBtu of early volumes on an FOB basis with fixed liquefaction fees, expected to achieve margins over $3/MMBtu (sales price less feed gas and fuel costs). Guidance assumes $5/MMBtu or $3/MMBtu margins for early volumes. Steady-state margins are projected on a $5/MMBtu basis in the base case, with upside potential from schedule improvements and above-nameplate production.

Key Risks

Risks flagged include: potential unexpected events during commissioning and startup of Train 1, delays in Bechtel's schedule despite current ahead-of-track progress, inflation and interest rate changes affecting Train 6 costs, and short-term demand destruction in price-sensitive markets (South and Southeast Asia) due to the Iran conflict. Management also noted the need to manage market exposure on uncontracted volumes.

Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice

✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (3 quarters) submit a missing quarter

🔍

🔎 See cross-company document search → ?

📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (3)

Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-30

Rio Grande LNG Phase 1 construction is ahead of schedule, with first gas expected in late 2026 and first LNG in early 2027. Major financings have strengthened the balance sheet, and Train 6 development is progressing toward a 2027 FID amid strong LNG market demand and ongoing global supply disruptions.

Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-01

Construction at the Rio Grande LNG facility is ahead of schedule and within budget, with first LNG from Train 1 expected in early 2027. Early LNG sales have reduced market risk, and strong demand supports future expansion, while financial guidance and leverage targets are reaffirmed.

Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-03-02

Major milestones achieved in 2025 include FIDs for trains four and five, robust long-term contracting, and construction ahead of schedule. Financial guidance remains strong, with flexible capital structure and significant upside from early LNG sales and future expansions.

📊 Analysis Methodology

This comprehensive investment analysis was conducted using The Finmagine™ Stock Analysis & Ranking Methodology, a proprietary framework that systematically evaluates stocks across five critical dimensions: Financial Health, Growth Prospects, Competitive Positioning, Management Quality, and Valuation.

🎯

Discover Our Proven Investment Framework Learn how we analyze and rank stocks using advanced quantitative models, multi-dimensional scoring systems, and dynamic discriminatory ranking techniques that have guided successful investment decisions across market cycles.

📊 Explore The Finmagine™ Methodology

A comprehensive, bias-free framework for analyzing and ranking stocks by Financial Strength, Growth Potential, Competitive Edge, Management Quality, and Value.

⚠️ Important Disclaimers — Please read without fail.

Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

Not SEC-Registered:
Finmagine is not registered as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or any state securities authority. Nothing on this platform constitutes investment advice as defined under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.

Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
The author and/or analyst may currently hold or have previously held positions in the securities discussed. Any such positions are not intended to influence the objectivity or independence of the analysis. This research is produced independently and is not sponsored, endorsed, or commissioned by any company or institution.

Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

Forward-Looking Statements:
This analysis may contain forward-looking statements, forecasts, or projections that are inherently subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Finmagine does not undertake any obligation to update such statements in the future.

Limitation of Liability:
The content is provided "as is" without any warranties, express or implied. Finmagine expressly disclaims any liability for errors, omissions, or any losses incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided. Readers assume full responsibility for their investment decisions.