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Murphy Oil Corporation
$5.4B
Market Cap
43.4
P/E
0.79
PEG
3.2%
ROCE
2.6%
ROE
0.37
D/E
11.2%
OPM
-17.5%
% from 52W High
73
α RS
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for MUR including FX impact
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📈 Price History
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About

Murphy Oil Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company in the United States, Canada, and internationally.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding MUR
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 45.4K $1.9M 0.00% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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🎙 Management Tone Confident Specific ~ Volatile 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
📊 MIXED Production beat guidance; cash flow $429M; adjusted net income $47M.
Revenue & Profitability
Murphy generated cash flow of $429 million and adjusted net income of $47 million in Q1 2026. This includes $67 million of exploration expense related to two unsuccessful wells in Côte d'Ivoire. The average realized oil price for the quarter was $72 per barrel, with March prices exceeding $90 per barrel. The company remains unhedged.
Outlook
Management noted ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, contributed to elevated volatility across energy markets and influenced realized pricing. While Murphy does not have direct exposure to the region, these dynamics reinforce the importance of discipline and a long-term mindset. For Vietnam, management expects long-run pricing of Brent plus $2-$3, but current disruptions in Asia have led to temporary elevated differentials. The company maintains a flexible approach and its capital guidance range of $1.2-$1.3 billion.
Growth Drivers
Key growth drivers include the Chinook #8 well in the Gulf of Mexico (expected online in second half 2026), the Lac Da Vang (Golden Camel) field in Vietnam (startup Q4 2026, ramping through 2027), and the Cello and Banjo developments (expected online late 2027). In the Eagle Ford, strong well performance from longer laterals and innovation is driving above-guidance production. The company also has a robust exploration program in Vietnam and the Gulf of Mexico for 2027-2028.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Murphy is maintaining its 2026 capital guidance range of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, which is front-loaded in the first half due to heavy onshore drilling and the exploration/appraisal program in Vietnam and Côte d'Ivoire. If the Bubale exploration well is successful, an appraisal well could be drilled immediately, potentially pushing capex to the high end or beyond the current range. Non-operated opportunities in the Eagle Ford may arise but are not expected to be significant.
Margins
Not discussed in this earnings call.
Key Risks
Key risks highlighted include geopolitical volatility (Middle East) impacting commodity prices, the slower-than-expected drilling progress at Bubale (hard rock in the Turonian section), unsuccessful exploration wells (as seen with $67 million expense from two wells in Côte d'Ivoire), and the inability to agree on gas pricing with the Ivorian government for the Paon development. The company also faces uncertainty regarding timing and execution of its capital return framework given extreme price volatility.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-06
Bubale discovery in Côte d'Ivoire and increased Eagle Ford investment drove a higher 2026 CapEx outlook, with strong free cash flow and liquidity maintained. Vietnam's HSV resource was revised down, but production and development plans remain robust.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-07
Q1 2026 saw strong financial and operational performance, with production exceeding guidance and robust cash flow, despite $67 million in exploration expense. Capital discipline and flexibility remain priorities, with significant upcoming projects and continued focus on shareholder returns.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-01-29
2025 delivered strong operational and exploration results, with cost reductions and reserve replacement above 100%. 2026 guidance calls for lower production but continued investment in high-value projects, especially in Vietnam and the Gulf of America, with capital flexibility to navigate market volatility.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-06
Production and cost performance exceeded guidance, with strong results from both onshore and offshore assets. Capital efficiency improved, and exploration programs in Vietnam and West Africa are advancing, while capital plans remain flexible amid commodity price volatility.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-07
Second quarter production exceeded guidance, driven by strong Eagle Ford and Montney results, while cost reductions and operational efficiency improved margins. High-impact exploration is underway in Gulf of America, Vietnam, and Côte d'Ivoire, with share repurchases prioritized over debt reduction.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

⚠️ Important Disclaimers — Please read without fail.

Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
The author and/or analyst may currently hold or have previously held positions in the securities discussed. Any such positions are not intended to influence the objectivity or independence of the analysis. This research is produced independently and is not sponsored, endorsed, or commissioned by any company or institution.

Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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