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Moderna, Inc.
NASDAQ: MRNA Healthcare Pharma 🔎 Screen
S&P 500
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$56.5B
Market Cap
8.9
P/E
PEG
-72.0%
ROCE
-28.9%
ROE
0.15
D/E
-158.1%
OPM
-14.2%
% from 52W High
99
α RS
🔍 MRNA is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 5 of 37 tracked screener presets, RS Rating is 99 (top decile vs market), and it's within 14.2% of its 52-week high. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RS Rating 52W High
Sources
Conviction 5/37 · RS Rating 99 · 14.2% from 52W high
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About

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally.

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⭐ Superinvestors Holding MRNA
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 881.2K $44.8M 0.07% Mar 2026
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 197.8K $10.1M 0.01% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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Mixed quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Revenue
$145M
+2% YoY
Net Loss
$782M
improved 5% YoY
Loss Per Share
$1.97
improved from $2.13 YoY
Cash & Investments
$6.9B
down from $7.5B at Q1-end
What Went Right
  • Q2 revenue of $145M exceeded the top of company guidance; net loss improved 5% YoY to $782M.
  • mRNA-1010 seasonal flu vaccine received a unanimous VRBPAC recommendation; U.S. PDUFA date is August 5.
  • Five-year phase II intismeran update at ASCO showed durable benefit and translational confirmation of neoantigen-specific T-cell induction.
What to Watch
  • Norovirus mRNA-1403 phase III failed to meet early statistical criteria at interim; an additional cohort is being enrolled and the trial remains blinded.
  • A $950M litigation settlement was paid in July and is embedded in the $1.7B cost-of-sales guidance.
  • 2026 guidance assumes further COVID vaccination-rate declines, especially in the U.S., making H2 performance dependent on market uptake.
Management Guidance
  • 2026 revenue growth of up to 10%; Q3 expected to be ~55% of second-half revenue; full-year U.S./international split ~50/50.
  • Cost of sales lowered to ~$1.7B, R&D to ~$2.9B, SG&A ~$1.0B; cash costs ~$4B excluding the $0.9B litigation charge.
  • Year-end 2026 cash projected at $4.7-$5.2B; CapEx $0.2-$0.3B; no revenue assumed from mFLUSIVA or mCOMBRIAX.
Investor Lens
The thesis is mixed: the revenue beat, lower cash burn and improved full-year cost guidance provide near-term support, while positive INT melanoma durability and flu approval momentum keep key catalysts intact. The norovirus interim miss adds pipeline risk, and the INT RCC readout could slip into 2027 because it is event-driven. Balance-sheet discipline, strategic partnerships, and the lowered 2026 opex outlook cushion downside, but the next meaningful step-change depends on INT adjuvant melanoma interim and PA data in H2 2026.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📊 MIXED Revenue beat at $145M but norovirus interim miss keeps quarter mixed.
Revenue
Q2 revenue was $145M, up 2% YoY and above the top of management guidance. Geographic mix was 60% US / 40% international for the quarter; first-half revenue was $0.5B with 69% international, driven by strategic partnerships.
Profitability
Net loss improved 5% YoY to $782M, or $1.97 per share versus $2.13. R&D expense fell 7% to $651M and SG&A expense fell 6% to $216M on lower late-stage clinical costs and continued cost discipline.
Margins
Cost of sales dropped 22% YoY to $93M, aided by lower unutilized manufacturing capacity, even with $41M of inventory write-downs. Operating margin was not explicitly disclosed, but full-year cost of sales and R&D guidance were each lowered by $0.1B, improving total GAAP operating expenses by $0.2B.
Balance Sheet
Cash and investments were $6.9B at June 30, down from $7.5B at the end of Q1 due to funding operations and pipeline investment. A $950M litigation settlement was paid in July, and 2026 year-end cash is guided to $4.7-$5.2B, excluding draws on the $0.9B undrawn credit facility.
Key Risks
The biggest pipeline setback was norovirus mRNA-1403 not meeting early success criteria at the phase III interim, requiring an additional cohort. Management also flagged COVID vaccination-rate declines, particularly in the U.S., and event-driven INT readouts that may slip into 2027, especially RCC.
Outlook
For 2026, Moderna reiterated up to 10% revenue growth and expects Q3 to be roughly 55% of second-half revenue. Full-year cash costs are now expected at ~$4B, a $0.2B improvement, supporting projected year-end cash of $4.7-$5.2B.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-31
Q2 2026 revenue exceeded guidance at $145 million, with improved cost discipline and a net loss of $782 million. Pipeline advanced with key regulatory milestones in flu and RSV vaccines, and oncology programs showed durable benefit. Revenue growth of up to 10% is expected for 2026.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-01
Q1 2026 saw strong revenue growth driven by international partnerships and new product approvals, despite a net loss impacted by a major litigation settlement. The company reiterated up to 10% revenue growth for 2026, advanced its late-stage pipeline, and expects pivotal data readouts later this year.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-13
2025 saw $1.9B in revenue, a 30% drop in operating expenses, and a net loss of $2.8B, with strong cash reserves and pipeline progress. 2026 guidance projects up to 10% revenue growth, driven by international expansion and new product launches, despite regulatory setbacks for the flu vaccine.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-06
Q3 2025 revenue was $1 billion, with a net loss of $200 million and strong cost reductions. Guidance for 2025 was tightened, with revenue expected at $1.6-$2 billion and year-end cash raised to $6.5-$7 billion. Pipeline progress and strategic partnerships are set to drive future growth.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-01
Q2 2025 saw revenues of $142 million and a net loss of $825 million, with significant cost reductions and three new FDA approvals. Updated 2025 revenue guidance reflects shipment timing shifts and market uncertainties, while the company advances its late-stage pipeline and maintains strong cash discipline.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

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Information Sources:
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