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Marathon Petroleum Corporation
S&P 500
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$110.0B
Market Cap
12.3
P/E
0.51
PEG
13.3%
ROCE
24.2%
ROE
1.31
D/E
6.3%
OPM
-0.7%
% from 52W High
92
α RS
🔍 MPC is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 7 of 37 tracked screener presets, Sector RRG has Energy in the Leading quadrant with the trail still rolling over, and RS Rating is 92 (top decile vs market). Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RRG RS Rating
Sources
Conviction 7/37 · Energy in Leading quadrant · RS Rating 92
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for MPC including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
Poor
By Category
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About

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States.

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Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Adjusted EBITDA
$8.5B
+158% YoY
Net Income
$5.1B
+325% YoY
Diluted EPS
$17.73
+348% YoY
R&M Adjusted EBITDA per barrel
$24.84
+266% YoY
What Went Right
  • Adjusted EBITDA surged to $8.5B from $3.3B a year ago, with EPS of $17.73.
  • R&M capture was 112% in Q2 and 108% in 1H26, helped by crude optimization and SPR barrels.
  • Gulf Coast ran at 100% utilization and R&M per-barrel EBITDA reached $24.84.
What to Watch
  • Q3 turnaround expenses are guided at ~$290M, with Gulf Coast/MidCon conversion work a capture headwind.
  • Jet-to-diesel spreads have pulled back and product margins are below Q2 levels early in 3Q.
  • Secondary product margins remain a drag; Q3 has historically been the weakest capture quarter, averaging ~95%.
Management Guidance
  • Q3 2026 R&M crude throughput guided to ~2.8M bpd, representing 94% utilization.
  • Q3 2026 turnaround expenses expected to be ~$290M.
  • MPLX 2026 growth capital outlook raised by $500M to $2.9B; expects mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026 and 12.5% annual distribution growth in 2026-2027.
Investor Lens
The thesis is stronger after this call: 112% capture and 108% 1H capture show durable self-help on top of a strong macro, while MPLX growth underpins 12.5% distribution growth and leading capital returns. Management expects an enhanced mid-cycle environment into 2027, but Q3 guidance embeds higher turnaround costs and a weaker product-margin setup. The capital-return story remains intact, with $2.8B returned in the quarter and $6.1B left on the buyback authorization.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG STRONG Q2: Adjusted EBITDA $8.5B; capture 112%; MPLX driving growth.
Revenue
Total revenue was not disclosed. The company reported $8.5B adjusted EBITDA, led by R&M at $6.7B, with Midstream at $1.8B and Renewable Diesel at $258M.
Profitability
Net income attributable to MPC was $5.1B, or $17.73 per diluted share, versus $1.2B, or $3.96 per share, a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA increased approximately $5.2B year-over-year.
Margins
R&M margin was $36.33 per barrel versus $17.58 per barrel a year ago, and R&M adjusted EBITDA per barrel was $24.84 versus $6.79. Refining operating costs were $5.72 per barrel, up from $5.34, partly due to MidCon planned downtime.
Balance Sheet
MPC ended Q2 with roughly $7.8B of consolidated cash, including about $1B at MPLX. The company returned $2.8B to shareholders, including $2.5B of share repurchases, and working capital was a $3.8B source of cash, partly tied to crude exchanges and an SPR repayment obligation.
Key Risks
Management flagged Q3 turnaround activity in the Gulf Coast and MidCon as a capture headwind, along with early-3Q product margins below Q2 levels and a pullback in jet-to-diesel spreads. RIN and RVO market volatility remains a risk, and secondary product margins continue to lag stronger clean product margins.
Outlook
MPC expects to remain in an enhanced mid-cycle environment through the end of 2026 and into 2027. For Q3, R&M throughput is guided at 2.8M bpd / 94% utilization with ~$290M of turnaround expenses.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-04
Q2 2026 saw record adjusted EBITDA, strong cash flow, and peer-leading profitability per barrel, driven by high utilization, advantaged crude sourcing, and disciplined capital allocation. Market tightness persists due to global supply disruptions, supporting a constructive outlook into 2027.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-05
Strong Q1 results driven by high refinery utilization, robust margins, and proactive maintenance, with $2.8B adjusted EBITDA and $1B returned to shareholders. Guidance points to higher Q2 utilization and continued capital returns amid favorable market conditions.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-03
Strong 2025 results featured record cash generation, high refining utilization, and robust capital returns. 2026 guidance calls for disciplined CapEx reductions, continued demand strength, and further shareholder distributions, with MPLX and refining investments positioned for long-term growth.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-04
Q3 saw strong cash generation, high utilization, and robust capital returns, despite margin headwinds from West Coast dynamics and regulatory uncertainty in renewables. Tight supply and strong demand support a positive outlook, with continued focus on capital returns and midstream growth.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-05
Q2 2025 saw record refinery utilization, 105% margin capture, and $3.96 EPS, with strong diesel demand and tight inventories supporting margins. Portfolio optimization included a $425M ethanol JV divestiture and a $2.4B midstream acquisition, while capital returns and growth investments remain priorities.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
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Information Sources:
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