📈 Price History

Ratio Health

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By Category

📊 Sector Averages

About

Mercury General Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in writing personal automobile insurance in the United States.

Key Ratios Snapshot

📈 Growth Pattern

⚡ Latest Quarter —

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📊 Quick Scorecard

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⭐ Superinvestors Holding MCY

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Manager	Shares	Value	% of Fund	Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC	823.6K	$72.6M	0.11%	Mar 2026
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management	32.6K	$2.9M	0.00%	Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

🔍 Concall Decoded

🎙 Management Tone Tracker Mixed → Stable 1 quarter analysed

Q4 2024 latest

Mixed

Confident about record results and underlying profitability ('the highest in the company's history', 'core underlying combined ratio of 88.3%') but becomes defensive and confrontational when pressed on wildfire loss estimates and methodology (accusing analyst of shorting stock, ending call abruptly).

Guidance Reliability Pending · <3Q data

Investor Lens

The investment thesis is weakened by the magnitude of wildfire losses but supported by strong underlying profitability and reinsurance coverage. The company's net loss estimate of $155M-$325M after tax is manageable relative to $398M quarterly operating income, but the gross loss range of $1.6B-$2.0B highlights the risk of tail events. Key watch items: (1) ultimate gross loss and net loss final numbers; (2) subrogation recovery—if Eaton Fire utility liability is confirmed, recoveries of 40%-70% could substantially reduce net losses; (3) FAIR Plan assessments beyond the initial $50M; (4) whether management classifies the fires as one or two events for reinsurance purposes; (5) ability to continue growing premium while maintaining underwriting discipline. The CEO's defensive tone and refusal to disclose TIV details may fuel skepticism, but the underlying auto and homeowners combined ratios remain strong. Next quarter's actual loss development and any subrogation progress will be critical to reassessing the value proposition.

AI-generated concall tone analysis · Updated 2026-06-08 · Not investment advice

🎙 Management Tone Mixed → Stable 1 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →

📊 MIXED Mercury General Q4 2024 ops income $398M; wildfires net loss $155M-$325M

Revenue & Profitability

Fourth quarter 2024 after-tax operating income was $398 million, the highest in company history. The combined ratio for Q4 was 91.4% (96% for full year 2024). Excluding catastrophe losses, the combined ratio was 88.3% for the quarter and 90.5% for the full year. Investment income after-tax was $61.5 million in Q4, an increase of 15% over the prior-year quarter. Net premiums written grew 16% to $1.3 billion in Q4 and 20.5% to $5.4 billion for the full year 2024. The company estimated gross catastrophe losses from the January wildfires at $1.6 billion to $2 billion, with net losses of $155 million to $325 million.

Outlook

Management expects 2025 core underlying earnings to provide capital generation to partially offset wildfire losses. The combined ratio is expected to move closer to the company's target of about 96% over time. The California Department of Insurance's Sustainable Insurance Strategy is seen as recognizing the need for appropriate rate actions, including allowing reinsurance costs and models. The company expects investment income in 2025 to be near 2024 levels.

Growth Drivers

Growth in net premiums written was primarily driven by higher average premiums per policy from rate increases. The company aims to grow its auto and homeowners business prudently. A 12% homeowners rate increase was recently approved and will be effective March 2025, with further rate actions being evaluated for the second quarter. The company is monitoring auto frequency and severity trends to support appropriate pricing.

Balance Sheet & CapEx

Not discussed in this earnings call.

Margins

The Q4 2024 combined ratio was 91.4%, and the full-year 2024 combined ratio was 96%. Excluding catastrophe losses, the combined ratio was 88.3% for Q4 and 90.5% for the full year. Management expects the combined ratio to move up closer to the target of about 96% over time as they monitor cost structure and trends. Auto frequencies showed small declines for property damage and collision and were flat for bodily injury; severities were low to mid-single digits for property damage and collision and mid-teens for bodily injury.

Key Risks

Key risks include the catastrophic wildfires, with estimated gross losses of $1.6 billion to $2 billion and net losses of $155 million to $325 million. Reinstatement premiums of $80 million to $101 million will be incurred. The FAIR Plan assessment is estimated at $50 million. The company also faces uncertainty regarding subrogation recoveries and the potential classification of the wildfires as one or two events under its reinsurance treaty. The premiums-to-surplus ratio may rise to high 2s or low 3s, but management expects core earnings to rebuild surplus.

Generated by AI · Q4 2024 results · Not investment advice

✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter

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🔎 See cross-company document search → ?

📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)

Q4 2024 Q4 2024 2025-02-12

Record Q4 operating income and strong premium growth were offset by significant wildfire catastrophe losses, with robust capital and liquidity positions maintained. Reinsurance costs are expected to rise, but core business and investment income remain strong, supporting future capital recovery.

Q2 2020 Q2 2020 2020-08-03

Q1 2020 Q1 2020 2020-05-04

Q4 2019 Q4 2019 2020-02-10

Q3 2019 Q3 2019 2019-10-28

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