📈 Price History

Ratio Health

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— Good

— Average

— Poor

By Category

📊 Sector Averages

About

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. operates as an education services company in the United States.

Key Ratios Snapshot

📈 Growth Pattern

⚡ Latest Quarter —

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📊 Quick Scorecard

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⭐ Superinvestors Holding LOPE

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Manager	Shares	Value	% of Fund	Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC	215.1K	$36.6M	0.06%	Mar 2026
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management	123.5K	$21.0M	0.03%	Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

🔍 Concall Decoded

🎙 Management Tone Tracker Confident Specific → Stable 4 quarters analysed

Q2 2025

Confident Specific

Management used precise figures (10.1% online growth, 15.4% hybrid growth, $0.16 beat on consensus) and repeated phrases like 'exceeded our expectations' and 'significantly exceeds long-term objectives'. The tone is assertive about momentum continuing despite tougher comps.

Q3 2025

Confident Specific

Management used specific growth percentages (online 9.6%, hybrid 19.3%), described detailed enrollment trends and new initiatives, and explicitly stated 'momentum that exists will continue' despite acknowledging the military tuition assistance headwind.

Q4 2025

Confident Specific

Management uses strong, specific language: 'remarkably consistent, positive results', 'extremely flexible', 'tremendous scale', 'all-time highs' on licensure exam scores, and states online enrollment growth of 8.7% 'significantly exceeds long-term objectives'. They also provide detailed figures on new programs and workforce development outcomes.

Q1 2026 latest

Confident Specific

Management repeatedly used definitive language like 'strong quarter,' 'remarkably consistent positive results,' and 'significantly exceeds long-term objectives.' They cited specific growth numbers (8.8% online, 20.3% hybrid) and stressed the model's flexibility, speed, and scale. The tone was forward-leaning, with CEO saying 'I believe AI will make our current advantages even greater.'

Guidance Reliability Pending · <3Q data

Investor Lens

The investment thesis is stronger after this call. GCE delivered online and hybrid enrollment growth above long-term targets, exceeded consensus EPS, and expanded operating margins. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance with confidence and highlighted AI as a durable future advantage. The strong free cash flow and aggressive buyback program are being executed at a time when the board considers shares materially undervalued. Key areas to watch next quarter: fall ground campus new starts (registrations currently ahead of last year), hybrid capacity constraints as 14 locations near capacity, and whether the re-acceleration in RN-to-BSN nursing enrollment sustains. The mix shift toward lower-revenue-per-student programs is a manageable headwind that also improves retention and graduation rates. Overall, the consistent execution, scale advantages, and expanding partnerships support a positive outlook.

AI-generated concall tone analysis · Updated 2026-06-08 · Not investment advice

🎙 Management Tone Confident Specific → Stable 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →

📊 MIXED Grand Canyon Education Q1 2026: Service revenue $308.8M, online enrollment up 8.8%.

Revenue & Profitability

First quarter 2026 service revenue was $308.8 million, up 6.7% year-over-year from $289.3 million. Operating income was $95.5 million (30.9% margin) versus $88.0 million (30.4%) in Q1 2025. GAAP net income was $75.3 million; adjusted non-GAAP diluted EPS was $2.86, $0.08 above consensus. The company repurchased 724,408 shares in Q1 for $120.4 million.

Outlook

Management believes AI will create winners and losers within higher education; institutions that are flexible, fast, and scalable will flourish. They see AI increasing demand for formal higher education in licensure-requiring fields (nursing, teaching, counseling) and making curriculum more targeted while supporting student outcomes. The lead generation environment is shifting due to AI-driven consumer behavior, but GCE's employer-direct channel and strong brands position it well.

Growth Drivers

Online enrollment grew 8.8% in Q1 2026, exceeding long-term objectives, driven by 20+ new programs annually, employer partnerships (30% of starts), strong retention, and competitive pricing. Hybrid enrollment (excluding closed/teach-out sites) grew 20.3% year-over-year, fueled by ABSN programs and online prerequisite courses (23,104 pre-req students enrolled). GCU's ground traditional campus saw fall 2026 registrations ahead of last year, supported by the Honors College expansion and a new state-of-the-art facility.

Balance Sheet & CapEx

Q1 2026 CapEx was $8.1 million (2.6% of service revenue), including spending for new off-campus classroom and laboratory sites. Full-year 2026 CapEx is guided between $30 million and $35 million. The company is investing in technology services, AI implementation, partner initiatives, and new hybrid site openings (1–2 more expected in H2 2026, with some delayed to early 2027).

Margins

Q1 2026 operating margin was 30.9%, up from 30.4% a year ago, driven by higher revenue and contract modifications. Management expects margin expansion in 2026, though pressure comes from the mix shift to lower-tuition licensure programs, increased technology and benefit costs, and upfront costs for new hybrid sites. Full-year margin guidance is reaffirmed, with revenue guidance slightly updated for the Q1 beat.

Key Risks

Management flagged several risks: the shift in lead generation due to AI reducing reliance on organizational websites; capacity constraints at 14 hybrid locations that are at or near capacity, limiting growth; and pressure on margins and revenue per student from the mix shift to lower-tuition programs. The effective tax rate is rising due to state tax exposure and declining excess tax benefits. Macro trends and tough year-over-year comps may challenge ground enrollment growth.

Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice

✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter

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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)

Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-30

Q2 2026 saw strong financial results with service revenue up 6.7% and EPS beating consensus by $0.14. Online and hybrid enrollments grew, and new initiatives in honors, construction, and law are set to drive future growth. Amended MSA reduces revenue but has minimal impact on operating income.

Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-30

Q1 2026 saw strong online and hybrid enrollment growth, a 6.7% YoY revenue increase, and margin expansion. Adjusted EPS beat consensus, and guidance for 2026 was reaffirmed despite minor revenue headwinds from contract changes. Share repurchases and AI-driven strategies remain key priorities.

Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-18

Q4 2025 saw 8.7% online and 18.7% hybrid enrollment growth, with revenue up 5.3% year-over-year and EPS beating consensus. 2026 guidance projects continued enrollment and margin growth, with strong investments in AI, workforce programs, and share repurchases.

Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-05

Q3 2025 saw 9.6% online and 19.3% hybrid enrollment growth, with service revenue up 9.6% year-over-year. Adjusted EPS rose to $1.78, and guidance remains strong despite a $3M Q4 impact from the government shutdown on military tuition assistance.

Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-06

Q2 2025 saw strong enrollment and revenue growth, with online and hybrid segments outperforming expectations. Net income rose 19.1% and guidance for the full year was raised, supported by robust demand and new program launches.

📊 Analysis Methodology

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