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KeyCorp
NYSE: KEY Financials Bank 🔎 Screen
S&P 500
🏹 Trader: 🎯 Near 52W High | BRS 68 Forming View all →
$24.0B
Market Cap
13.6
P/E
0.54
PEG
ROCE
9.5%
ROE
0.49
D/E
OPM
-7.9%
% from 52W High
62
α RS
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for KEY including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
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About

KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding KEY
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 400.7K $8.0M 0.01% Mar 2026
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 376.7K $7.6M 0.01% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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3-Statement Financial Model
Bear / Base / Bull projections · DCF fair value · Reverse-DCF
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Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Revenue
$1.96B
+7% YoY
Net Interest Income
$1.258B
+9% YoY
Net Income
$472M
+22% YoY
Diluted EPS
$0.44
+26% YoY
What Went Right
  • C&I loans grew $2.1B, or 3% sequentially, lifting average loans $2.3B and underpinning NII growth of 9% YoY.
  • NIM expanded 2bps sequentially to 2.89%; total deposit costs fell 2bps to 1.63%.
  • Wealth AUM hit a record $74B and commercial payments gross fees rose 12% YoY; priority fee businesses grew 8% in H1.
What to Watch
  • NIM was lighter than expected due to wholesale funding and tighter spreads on higher-quality loans; full-year exit NIM was reset to 3%-3.05%.
  • NPAs jumped $126M sequentially to 74bps on three credits in real estate, consumer goods, and agriculture, though loss content is viewed as low.
  • IB fees came in short of expectations at $169M; middle-market M&A remains sluggish with H1 IB fees up only 4%, though Q3 is guided up >20% QoQ.
Management Guidance
  • FY2026 revenue growth raised to 7%-8% from ~7%; NII growth raised to 9%-11% from 9%-10%.
  • FY2026 average loan growth raised to 4%-5%; average commercial loan growth guided to 8%-10%.
  • 4Q26 NIM expected at 3%-3.05%; average earning assets expected to increase $1B-$2B vs 2Q26.
  • Q3 2026 investment banking fees expected up >20% sequentially.
  • Expense growth remains within 3%-4%; average client deposits expected to grow >2% through year-end.
Investor Lens
The thesis is stronger, not weaker: EPS rose 26% YoY, record AUM and strong C&I growth support the relationship-banking model, and management raised full-year revenue, NII, and loan guidance. The offset is a softer NIM trajectory—2.89% today and 3%-3.05% exit—plus still-slow middle-market IB activity. If deposit growth and fixed-asset repricing deliver, the 15%+ ROTCE by end-2027 and 3.25% NIM target remain credible. Capital returns also continue with $341M of Q2 buybacks.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Strong Q2: EPS $0.44, revenue +7% YoY; guidance raised.
Revenue
Total taxable-equivalent revenue was $1.96B, up 7% YoY, with NII up 9% to $1.258B and noninterest income up 2% to $706M. Priority fee-based businesses (IB, payments, wealth) grew 8% in H1, led by commercial payments fees +12% YoY.
Profitability
Net income was $472M, or $0.44 per diluted share, up 22% and 26% YoY respectively. ROTCE was 12.89%, and pre-provision net revenue grew 9% YoY.
Margins
NIM expanded 2bps sequentially to 2.89% (+23bps YoY), driven by commercial loan growth and fixed-rate asset repricing. Total deposit costs fell 2bps to 1.63%; expenses rose 5% YoY, keeping operating leverage positive at roughly 130bps YoY.
Balance Sheet
Period-end loans rose $1.2B, with C&I up $2.1B or 3%; deposits were flat on average and ended at $153B, including a temporary ~$4B transaction-related elevation. CET1 was 11.2% (9.8% marked), and the bank repurchased $341M of stock during the quarter.
Key Risks
Management flagged a softer NIM path—tighter spreads on higher-quality loans and use of wholesale funding—with only a 3%-3.05% 4Q exit. NPAs rose $126M on three idiosyncratic credits, and IB fees missed expectations as middle-market M&A lags large-cap activity.
Outlook
FY26 guidance was raised: revenue +7%-8%, NII +9%-11%, average loans +4%-5%, with NIM exiting at 3%-3.05%. Q3 IB fees are expected up >20% QoQ, and the 15%+ ROTCE by end-2027 target remains intact.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-21
Second quarter results showed strong EPS and revenue growth, robust commercial loan expansion, and disciplined capital deployment. Guidance for 2026 was raised on revenue, NII, and loan growth, with fee-based businesses and wealth management delivering solid performance.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-16
Q1 2026 delivered strong EPS and revenue growth, with robust commercial loan and fee-based business momentum. Guidance for net interest income and loan growth was raised, capital ratios remain strong, and significant investments in technology and share repurchases are planned.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-01-20
Fourth quarter and full-year results showed strong revenue and fee growth, improved asset quality, and robust capital returns. 2026 guidance calls for 7% revenue growth, positive operating leverage, and continued investment in technology and talent, with a focus on commercial and fee-based businesses.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-16
Q3 2025 saw strong profitability, with EPS of $0.41, 17% revenue growth, and record AUM. Net interest margin hit 2.75% early, CET1 reached 11.8%, and robust pipelines support a positive outlook for 2026. Share repurchases and disciplined capital management remain priorities.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-22
Q2 2025 saw strong revenue and loan growth, improved credit metrics, and record AUM. Guidance for NII and commercial loan growth was raised, with continued investments in people and technology and a resumption of share repurchases expected in the second half.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
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Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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