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International Paper Company
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S&P 500
$16.3B
Market Cap
34.3
P/E
0.28
PEG
6.4%
ROCE
-24.7%
ROE
0.71
D/E
5.1%
OPM
-32.3%
% from 52W High
24
α RS
🔍 IP is showing a sector-leadership setup because Sector RRG has Consumer Discretionary in the Leading quadrant with the trail still strengthening, it matches 2 of 39 tracked screener presets, and an ECS of 53.8 last quarter. The main caution: the Margin Expansion preset's Backtest win rate is only 39.4%. Net: Mixed signal stack, not a recommendation. ? RRG Conviction ECS Backtest
Sources
Consumer Discretionary in Leading quadrant · Conviction 2/39 · ECS 53.8 · Backtest win rate 39.4%
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Currency-adjusted total returns for IP including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
— Excellent
— Good
— Average
— Poor
By Category
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About

International Paper Company produces and sells renewable fiber-based packaging in North America, Latin America, Europe, South America, and North Africa. It operates through two segments, Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA. The company offers linerboard, medium, whitetop, and saturating kraft; and converts containerboard into corrugated boxes, bulk bins, shipping containers and specialty packaging through its converting facilities. Its products support customers in various industries, such as food and beverage, agriculture, industrial manufacturing, personal care pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. The company was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 652.5K $23.3M 0.04% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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🎙 Management Tone Mixed ↓ Deteriorating 5 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Revenue
$6.0B
-2.3% YoY
Adjusted EBITDA
$587M
-12.4% YoY
Adjusted EBITDA Margin
9.8%
-1.1pp YoY
Net Income
-$12M
vs +$75M in Q2 2025
What Went Right
  • Q2 Adjusted EBITDA of $587M came in above internal expectations despite roughly 2x normal planned maintenance outages.
  • North American box volumes grew 1.7% YoY on a daily basis, and IP expects to outpace the industry by ~2% for the full year.
  • Riverdale machine conversion was completed on time, and the second paper machine returned to service ahead of schedule.
  • EMEA delivered $182M Adjusted EBITDA, ahead of expectations, with cost-out actions accelerated and $210M+ of run-rate savings announced.
What to Watch
  • Pine Hill mill roof repair is expected to hit Q3 by ~$85M, with H2 impact of $70-100M before insurance recovery.
  • Macro headwinds worsened to ~$150M from ~$50M, driven by higher OCC, diesel, transportation spot rates and employee medical costs.
  • Second-half industry demand outlook was trimmed to roughly flat versus an earlier expectation of a ~1% pickup, with West Coast fruit/vegetable softness pressuring July volumes.
  • EMEA remains pressured by geopolitical uncertainty, higher distribution costs, and paper-price-driven packaging margin squeeze.
Management Guidance
  • Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations guided at $780-$830 million, including the ~$85 million Pine Hill impact.
  • Full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations guided at $3.20-$3.40 billion.
  • Packaging Solutions North America Q3 Adjusted EBITDA guided at $555-$585 million, including Pine Hill.
  • Packaging Solutions EMEA Q3 Adjusted EBITDA guided at $230-$250 million.
  • Riverdale conversion expected to reach full run rate in Q1 2027; Waterloo startup in Q4 2026 and fully operational by Q2 2027.
Investor Lens
The investment thesis is stronger after this call: management cleared its heaviest outage quarter and the Riverdale conversion while keeping North American box volume growth above market. The main offsets are higher macro cost inflation and the Pine Hill disruption, but insurance is expected to cover most of the Pine Hill impact. With price increases flowing through in the second half and EMEA cost-out/margin recovery on track, the $3.2-$3.4 billion full-year Adjusted EBITDA target remains credible.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Q2 Adjusted EBITDA $587M; heavy outages dented profits but execution beat expectations.
Revenue
Q2 net sales were $6.0B, down ~2% YoY from $6.14B as planned export exits and EMEA softness weighed. North America box volumes still rose 1.7% YoY on a daily basis.
Profitability
Loss from continuing operations was $12M versus a $75M profit a year ago, while Adjusted EBITDA was $587M versus $670M. Adjusted operating earnings were $18M.
Margins
Adjusted EBITDA margin was ~9.8% versus ~10.9% in Q2 2025. Maintenance outages were a $127M sequential drag in North America, partly offset by $21M favorable input costs.
Balance Sheet
Cash from operations was $526M and free cash flow was -$7M. Capital investments totaled $533M.
Key Risks
Management flagged macro headwinds rising to ~$150M, the Pine Hill outage costing ~$85M in Q3, and softer second-half demand due to affordability and West Coast fruit/vegetable disruption.
Outlook
Q3 Adjusted EBITDA is guided at $780-$830M, including ~$85M Pine Hill impact, and full-year guidance is $3.2-$3.4B. Management expects a significant H2 step-up, with North America segment EBITDA guided at $2.35-$2.45B and EMEA at $900M-$1.0B.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-30
Q2 2026 saw strong operational execution, with North America box volumes up 1.7% year-over-year and key investments advancing. Despite macro and geopolitical headwinds, full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance remains robust, with significant second-half improvement expected.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-30
Q1 results showed above-market growth in North America and ongoing transformation in EMEA, but macro headwinds and one-time costs led to a reduced 2026 EBITDA outlook. Significant cost-out, strategic investments, and a planned business separation position the company for stronger second-half and 2027 performance.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-01-29
Announced separation into two regional packaging leaders to accelerate value creation, with strong 2025 results and robust 2026 guidance. Transformation efforts have driven significant cost reductions and operational improvements, while both businesses will maintain investment-grade balance sheets and focus on tailored regional strategies.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-30
Transformation actions drove a 40% year-to-date adjusted EBITDA increase in North America and sequential margin expansion, despite persistent market headwinds in both North America and EMEA. Revised 2025 targets reflect softer demand, but $600 million incremental EBITDA is expected in 2026 from executed actions.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-31
Transformation remains on track with Q2 revenue meeting expectations and cost-out actions progressing. North America is closing its market share gap, while EMEA faces soft demand but anticipates recovery. 2025 EBITDA guidance is maintained, with significant sequential earnings growth expected in Q3.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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