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ICF International, Inc.
🏹 Trader: 🎯 Near 52W High 💎 VCP Breakout | BRS 62 Forming View all →
$1.6B
Market Cap
17.2
P/E
0.78
PEG
7.5%
ROCE
9.1%
ROE
0.53
D/E
7.8%
OPM
-10.7%
% from 52W High
63
α RS
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for ICFI including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
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By Category
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About

ICF International, Inc. provides management, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services to government and commercial clients in the United States and internationally.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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📊 MIXED ICF Q1 2026: Revenue $437.5M, federal up 8.6% sequentially, maintains guidance.
Revenue & Profitability
Q1 2026 total revenue was $437.5 million, down 10.3% year-over-year due to federal contract cancellations and timing shifts. Net income was $20.5 million ($1.12 GAAP EPS), non-GAAP EPS was $1.50. Adjusted EBITDA was $48.9 million (11.2% margin). Backlog stood at $3.4 billion. Full-year 2026 guidance: revenue $1.89-$1.96 billion, GAAP EPS $5.95-$6.25, non-GAAP EPS $6.95-$7.25.
Outlook
Management sees strong secular tailwinds including rapidly growing electricity demand, increased frequency of natural disasters, and federal technology modernization needs. They expect 3% revenue growth at the midpoint in 2026 and a return to mid-to-high single-digit organic growth in 2027. Headwinds from federal contract cancellations are abating, with federal revenues expected to grow year-over-year in Q4 2026. The addressable market for commercial energy and disaster recovery is large and growing.
Growth Drivers
Key growth drivers include commercial energy (10% growth expected in 2026, driven by utility efficiency programs and data center demand), international government (17.5% YoY growth in Q1, with strong contract wins in EU and UK), and state/local government (mid-single-digit growth, led by disaster management). Federal technology modernization is stabilizing, with sequential revenue growth expected in Q2 and Q3. Data center and grid modernization demand is accelerating.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Capital expenditures in Q1 2026 were $2.8 million. Full-year 2026 CapEx guidance is $24.2 million to $26 million. Investments are focused on modernizing ERP systems, implementing AI tools in back-office processes, and funding organic growth initiatives in commercial energy, disaster recovery, and federal technology modernization.
Margins
Gross margin in Q1 2026 was 38.1%, up 10 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 11.2%, stable compared to 11.3% in Q1 2025. Management expects 10-20 basis points of margin expansion for the full year, driven by cost optimization (ERP modernization, AI tools) and favorable business mix. Indirect expenses declined nearly 10% year-over-year as a percentage of revenue.
Key Risks
Risks flagged include timing shifts in revenue recognition (approximately $12 million pushed from Q1 to later quarters), potential volatility from agentic AI affecting federal tech modernization work, and a higher-than-expected Q1 tax rate (25.1% vs. full-year guidance of 20.5%). Federal contract cancellations from 2025 continue to create challenging year-over-year comparisons, but sequential improvement is expected.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-06
Second quarter results were stable year-over-year, with strong growth in commercial and international segments offsetting federal declines. Margins and EPS improved, and the business pipeline expanded to $9.3 billion. Guidance for 2026 was reaffirmed, with sequential revenue growth expected in the second half.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-07
Q1 2026 saw strong execution, with federal and international government revenues up and commercial energy advisory growing mid-teens year-over-year. Despite a 10.3% revenue decline due to timing shifts, guidance for 3% full-year growth and margin expansion is reaffirmed.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-26
2025 results were resilient despite federal headwinds, with non-federal revenues up 14% and commercial energy leading growth. 2026 guidance anticipates a return to revenue and EPS growth, driven by double-digit gains in non-federal segments and ongoing margin improvement.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-30
Q3 revenues declined year-over-year due to federal headwinds and the government shutdown, but strong growth in commercial energy and non-federal segments offset some impact. Guidance for 2025 remains intact, with a return to growth expected in 2026.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-31
Q2 2025 results showed stable revenues and margin expansion, with strong growth in commercial energy offsetting federal declines. Guidance improved, with less than 10% revenue decline expected for 2025 and a return to growth in 2026, supported by robust demand and new AI offerings.
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📊 Analysis Methodology

This comprehensive investment analysis was conducted using The Finmagine™ Stock Analysis & Ranking Methodology, a proprietary framework that systematically evaluates stocks across five critical dimensions: Financial Health, Growth Prospects, Competitive Positioning, Management Quality, and Valuation.

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
The author and/or analyst may currently hold or have previously held positions in the securities discussed. Any such positions are not intended to influence the objectivity or independence of the analysis. This research is produced independently and is not sponsored, endorsed, or commissioned by any company or institution.

Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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