📈 Price History

Ratio Health

— Excellent

— Good

— Average

— Poor

By Category

📊 Peer Medians

About

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. engages in the production and export of non-thermal steelmaking coal for the steel production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. It offers hard-coking coal through the operation of underground mines located in Alabama. The company also sells natural gas extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.

Key Ratios Snapshot

📈 Growth Pattern

⚡ Latest Quarter —

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📊 Quick Scorecard

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⭐ Superinvestors Holding HCC

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Manager	Shares	Value	% of Fund	Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC	810.8K	$75.5M	0.12%	Mar 2026
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management	86.5K	$8.1M	0.01%	Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

🔍 Concall Decoded

🎙 Management Tone Tracker Confident Specific → Stable 4 quarters analysed

Q2 2025

Confident Specific

Management used phrases like 'strong operational results', 'excellent progress', 'ahead of schedule', 'we're confident that our world-class asset base... will allow us to navigate successfully', and directly addressed challenges without evasion, indicating a confident and specific tone.

Q3 2025

Confident Specific

Management repeatedly highlighted the 'remarkable' and 'almost unheard of' achievement of starting Blue Creek longwall eight months ahead of schedule on budget, and framed the quarter as 'showcasing strength' with 'strong financial performance' despite weak markets. Specific metrics like 10% production guidance raise and $71M Adjusted EBITDA were provided.

Q4 2025

Confident Specific

Management repeatedly described 2025 as 'transformative' and Blue Creek's ramp as 'remarkably smooth' and 'exceeding expectations', but also emphasized caution with phrases like 'we run our company to prepare for the downside risk' and 'hope we're conservative on our price assumptions', indicating a confident yet guarded stance.

Q1 2026 latest

Confident Specific

Management uses specific positive metrics: 'record quarterly sales and production volumes', 'ahead of schedule', 'on budget', 'better than expected'. They acknowledge uncertainties (inflation, Middle East) but frame them as manageable and outweighed by strengths.

Guidance Reliability Pending · <3Q data

Investor Lens

The investment thesis is stronger after this call. Blue Creek is now fully operational and contributing to record volumes and margins, with no debt associated. The company is generating strong EBITDA despite temporary negative free cash flow due to working capital timing. However, investors should watch for inflation impacts (diesel, raw materials), the Middle East conflict's effect on freight and pricing, and the pace of inventory reduction. The potential reinstatement of shareholder returns in H2 adds a catalyst. Overall, Warrior Met Coal is well-positioned with a low-cost structure and premium product, but near-term cash generation depends on working capital unwind and stable pricing.

AI-generated concall tone analysis · Updated 2026-06-08 · Not investment advice

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🎙 Management Tone Confident Specific → Stable 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →

📊 MIXED Warrior Met Coal Q1 2026: record sales 3M tons, EBITDA $143M, Blue Creek completed

Revenue & Profitability

Total revenues were $459 million in Q1 2026, up from $300 million in Q1 2025. Net income was $72 million ($1.37 per diluted share) compared to a net loss of $8 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA was $143 million, a 263% increase from $39 million in Q1 2025.

Outlook

Management expects steelmaking coal markets to remain generally consistent with recent trends, with prices above 2025 averages absent major disruptions. They see positive and resilient conditions, supported by strong Indian steel demand and rising European steel prices. However, they note uncertainty from the Middle East conflict and emerging inflationary cost pressures.

Growth Drivers

Growth is driven by the ramp-up of the Blue Creek mine, which contributed to record sales and production volumes in Q1 2026. Sales volumes increased 38% year-over-year. Management expects the sales mix to become more weighted toward High-Vol A products in Pacific Basin destinations over time.

Balance Sheet & CapEx

Capital expenditures in Q1 2026 were $80 million, including the final $66 million for the completed Blue Creek development project. Total project capital expenditure was a little over $1 billion, fully paid from operations. Full-year 2026 outlook and guidance for capex were reaffirmed.

Margins

Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 31% in Q1 2026 from 13% in Q1 2025. On a per-ton basis, adjusted EBITDA was $48, up from $18. Cash cost of sales per ton fell 14% to $96, and cash margins per ton increased 127% to $53, benefiting from the low-cost Blue Creek mine and the 45X tax credit.

Key Risks

Key risks include the Middle East conflict's impact on freight costs and global energy availability, inflationary pressures on materials (steel roof supports, shear bits, diesel), tariffs on raw materials, and potential supply chain disruptions. Additionally, working capital swings from timing of sales and inventory buildup were noted as a near-term risk.

Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice

✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter

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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)

Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-05

Record sales and margin expansion in Q2 2026 were driven by Blue Creek, with net income up to $87M and adjusted EBITDA up 193% year-over-year. Guidance was raised as strong free cash flow and liquidity position the company for increased shareholder returns.

Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-30

Record Q1 sales and production volumes were driven by the new Blue Creek mine, resulting in a 263% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA and a return to profitability. Despite negative free cash flow due to working capital and capex, guidance for 2026 is reaffirmed.

Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-12

Record production and sales in 2025 were driven by the early, on-budget start of Blue Creek, which lowered costs and expanded margins despite weak coal markets. 2026 guidance anticipates further volume growth, continued cost discipline, and a focus on shareholder returns.

Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-05

Early Blue Creek longwall startup and strategic reserve acquisition drove a 10% increase in 2025 production guidance, with record sales volumes offsetting weak pricing. Liquidity remains strong, and capital allocation will focus on dividends and buybacks as free cash flow improves.

Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-06

Q2 saw strong operational execution and early Blue Creek sales, but net income and margins declined sharply year-over-year due to weak coal prices. Guidance was updated for continued market headwinds, with Blue Creek's ramp-up and tax credits expected to support future results.

📊 Analysis Methodology

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