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GXO Logistics, Inc.
$5.3B
Market Cap
188.0
P/E
2.01
PEG
1.1%
ROCE
1.2%
ROE
1.69
D/E
1.9%
OPM
-26.8%
% from 52W High
29
α RS
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for GXO including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
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About

GXO Logistics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services worldwide.

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⭐ Superinvestors Holding GXO
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 698.5K $36.2M 0.05% Mar 2026
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 56.3K $2.9M 0.00% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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3-Statement Financial Model
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📊 MIXED GXO Q1 2026: Revenue $3.3B (+11%), adj. EBITDA $200M (+23%), raises full-year guidance
Revenue & Profitability
Revenue was $3.3 billion, up 10.8% year-over-year, with organic growth of 4.1%. Adjusted EBITDA was $200 million, up 22.7% from Q1 2025. Net income was $5 million, and adjusted net income attributable to GXO was $58 million, up 70.6%. Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.50, up 72.4%. Operating cash flow was $31 million, free cash flow was an outflow of $31 million. The company ended the quarter with $794 million cash and a liquidity position of $1.6 billion; leverage was 2.5x.
Outlook
Management sees the contract logistics market as a $0.5 trillion opportunity, with ~70% of supply chains still insourced, driving a strong tailwind for outsourcing. Tariffs are viewed as a catalyst for supply chain efficiency, increasing demand for free trade zones and reshoring. Volumes from existing customers are expected to be roughly breakeven for the year, with organic growth accelerating in the second half from new contract wins. The company raised full-year 2026 guidance: organic revenue growth of 4%-5%, adjusted EBITDA of $935-$975 million, and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.90-$3.20.
Growth Drivers
GXO is targeting strategic growth verticals – aerospace & defense, industrial, life sciences, and technology/data centers – which comprised 40% of Q1 wins and a quarter of the record $2.7 billion pipeline. In Q1, $227 million in new business was won, including contracts in aerospace & defense, AI cloud infrastructure with hyperscalers, NHS (U.K.), and L'Oréal in Europe. The company has $870 million of expected incremental new business revenue already secured for 2026 (up 19% from last year), and North America pipeline grew 35% sequentially.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Not discussed in detail. The company mentioned investments in automation, AI, and the GXO IQ platform, with a target of more than 50 sites by year-end, but no specific CapEx guidance was provided. Free cash flow conversion guidance for the full year is 30%-40%.
Margins
Adjusted EBITDA margin was 6.1% in Q1, up 60 basis points year-over-year. The company raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $935-$975 million. Management is driving margin expansion through the GXO Way and AI-driven productivity, and expects continued cost synergies from the Wincanton acquisition ($60 million run-rate by year-end 2026). Margin improvement also benefits from pricing that reflects value delivered and disciplined execution.
Key Risks
Risks flagged include dynamic geopolitical environment (e.g., Middle East conflict, which has no material impact on GXO), tariff changes and associated volume volatility, slower consumer demand, labor market constraints, inflationary pressures, and fluctuations in foreign exchange. The company also notes that its results may be affected by global economic conditions and supply chain disruptions. Analysts raised questions about the competitive threat from Amazon, but management downplayed it.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-05
Q2 2026 saw 4% revenue growth and record commercial momentum, with $410M in new business wins and over $1B incremental revenue secured for 2026. Margin expansion and organic growth are expected to accelerate into 2027, driven by strategic verticals, AI deployment, and disciplined capital allocation.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-06
Revenue grew 11% to $3.3B with adjusted EBITDA up 23% and EPS up 72%. Guidance for 2026 was raised on strong new business wins, a record pipeline, and accelerating AI and automation initiatives. Integration of Wincanton and strategic verticals drive confidence in long-term growth.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-11
Record 2025 results with $13.2B revenue and $881M adjusted EBITDA, driven by strong organic growth and strategic wins in high-value verticals. 2026 guidance targets further margin expansion, robust cash flow, and accelerated AI-driven productivity, with North America as a key growth lever.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-05
Record Q3 revenue and EBITDA growth were driven by strong organic performance and new business wins, with robust momentum in high-growth verticals and successful Wincanton integration. Guidance for 2025 is reaffirmed, with margin expansion expected in 2026 as synergies materialize.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-06
Record Q2 revenue and EBITDA growth led to raised full-year guidance. Strong new business wins, robust pipeline, and successful Wincanton acquisition position the company for continued growth, with automation and e-commerce as key drivers.
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📊 Analysis Methodology

This comprehensive investment analysis was conducted using The Finmagine™ Stock Analysis & Ranking Methodology, a proprietary framework that systematically evaluates stocks across five critical dimensions: Financial Health, Growth Prospects, Competitive Positioning, Management Quality, and Valuation.

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

⚠️ Important Disclaimers — Please read without fail.

Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
The author and/or analyst may currently hold or have previously held positions in the securities discussed. Any such positions are not intended to influence the objectivity or independence of the analysis. This research is produced independently and is not sponsored, endorsed, or commissioned by any company or institution.

Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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