📈 Price History

Ratio Health

— Excellent

— Good

— Average

— Poor

By Category

📊 Peer Medians

About

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) is a Private Debt, business development company and operates as an externally managed closed-end non-diversified management investment company. It invests in debt and minority equity investments in middle-market companies that are, in most cases, sponsored by private equity investors. It typically invests in diversified consumer services, automobiles, healthcare technology, insurance, health care equipment and supplies, hotels, restaurants and leisure, healthcare providers and services, IT services and specialty retails. It seeks to invest in the United States. It primarily invests in first lien traditional senior debt, first lien one stop, junior debt and equity, senior secured, one stop, unitranche, second lien, subordinated and mezzanine loans of middle-market companies, and warrants.

Key Ratios Snapshot

📈 Growth Pattern

⚡ Latest Quarter —

See full financials →

📊 Quick Scorecard

Loading…

🔍 Concall Decoded

🎙 Management Tone Tracker Confident Specific ~ Volatile 4 quarters analysed

Q3 2025

Confident Specific

Management repeatedly called the quarter 'good boring' and provided concrete numbers: adjusted NII $0.39, ROE 10.4%, non-accruals 60 bps. They made specific predictions about the credit cycle and M&A recovery, acknowledging humility but offering clear forecasts.

Q4 2025

Confident Specific

The CEO uses precise figures (e.g., 'adjusted NII per share was $0.39', '10.4% ROE', 'NAV per share $14.97') and directly acknowledges market headwinds while repeatedly stating GBDC's resilience and outperformance relative to peers. Language like 'solid quarter', 'strong end', and 'winners and whiners' reinforces a definitive, data-backed tone.

Q1 2026

Cautious

The CEO described the quarter as 'not great, but solid' and repeatedly emphasised four continuing headwinds, planning for a 'challenging 2026', and a 'Darwinian moment' in the industry, while also resetting the dividend downward.

Q2 2026 latest

Confident Specific

David Golub used language like 'We currently think that most of this quarter's fair value write-down will reverse in future quarters' and 'We're confident that Golub Capital and GBDC are gonna be among the winners.' He also provided specific predictions and framed temporary losses as non-permanent.

Guidance Reliability Pending · <3Q data

Investor Lens

The investment thesis is slightly stronger after this call. Management convincingly argued that the Q2 loss is temporary and driven by market spread widening, not credit deterioration. Non-accruals remain low at 1.4%, and performance ratings improved. The shift toward lender-friendly conditions should boost future earnings on new loans and allow reversal of markdowns. However, the dividend coverage is tight (adjusted NII of $0.34 vs distribution of $0.33), and management's outlook is contingent on M&A recovery and resolution of geopolitical risks. Key watch items for next quarter: the magnitude of spread reversal, actual credit stress in the broader market, and any further detail on AI risk in software.

AI-generated concall tone analysis · Updated 2026-06-08 · Not investment advice

🎙 Management Tone Confident Specific ~ Volatile 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →

📊 MIXED BDC with $8.3B portfolio, Q2 adjusted NII $0.34/sh, facing spread widening losses

Revenue & Profitability

For Q2 2026, GBDC reported adjusted net investment income (NII) of $0.34 per share and an adjusted net loss of $0.18 per share due to fair value write-downs from spread widening. Net asset value (NAV) per share stood at $14.35, and net debt-to-equity leverage was 1.24x. The board declared a $0.33 per share distribution. The company repurchased 2.2 million shares at a weighted average price of $12.43, an approximate 16% discount to prior NAV.

Outlook

Management expects the market to become more lender-friendly due to capital outflows from direct lending, leading to wider spreads and more attractive deal terms. However, they anticipate continued credit stress as a subset of companies still need to restructure, though non-accruals remain low at 1.4% of the portfolio. The CEO noted a 'Darwinian moment' for private credit where firms with sustainable advantages will take share from weaker competitors.

Growth Drivers

Key growth levers include a rebound in M&A activity—57% of new originations in Q2 supported M&A-driven transactions—and the company's selective focus on the core middle market ($10M–$100M EBITDA). GBDC also benefits from incumbency on existing sponsor relationships and the ability to lead deals. Share repurchases at a discount to NAV are an accretive capital allocation tool.

Balance Sheet & CapEx

Not discussed in this earnings call.

Margins

Net investment spread was 4.5% in Q2, with investment income yield of 9.7% (down 30 bps sequentially) and borrowing cost of 5.2% (down 20 bps). The decline in yield was driven by lower SOFR, partially offset by floating-rate debt funding. Management highlighted the company's low operating expense load as a structural advantage.

Key Risks

Key risks include fair value write-downs from spread widening (temporary vs. permanent), elevated credit stress in certain sectors (e.g., lower-end consumer, home-related businesses, outdoor sports), and AI disruption in the software portfolio (8% of software investments identified as having elevated AI risk). Geopolitical uncertainty, particularly oil markets and the Straits of Hormuz, could impact M&A activity and the broader economy.

Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice

✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter

🔍

🔎 See cross-company document search → ?

📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)

Q3 2026 Q3 2026 2026-08-04

Adjusted net income rebounded to $0.22 per share, with strong portfolio credit quality and robust liquidity. Share repurchases and disciplined underwriting supported NAV, while management expects continued credit stress but sees resilience and opportunity in core holdings.

Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-05-05

Reported a small quarterly loss due to fair value markdowns, but core credit performance and dividend coverage remain strong. Portfolio diversification increased, and management expects most losses to reverse as spreads normalize. Share repurchases and liquidity remain robust.

Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-02-05

Adjusted NII per share was $0.38 and NAV per share declined to $14.84 amid persistent industry headwinds. The base dividend was reset to $0.33 per share, and share repurchases contributed to NAV accretion. Management expects a challenging 2026, especially in software lending.

Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2025-11-19

Solid quarter and fiscal year with strong credit performance, resilient earnings, and NAV growth. Facing market headwinds from tighter spreads and credit stress, but maintains a highly diversified, first-lien portfolio and strong liquidity.

Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-08-05

Adjusted NII per share was $0.39 with strong credit quality and low non-accruals. Portfolio grew 4% and leverage remained within target, while management expects a prolonged credit cycle and gradual M&A improvement.

📊 Analysis Methodology

This comprehensive investment analysis was conducted using The Finmagine™ Stock Analysis & Ranking Methodology, a proprietary framework that systematically evaluates stocks across five critical dimensions: Financial Health, Growth Prospects, Competitive Positioning, Management Quality, and Valuation.

🎯

Discover Our Proven Investment Framework Learn how we analyze and rank stocks using advanced quantitative models, multi-dimensional scoring systems, and dynamic discriminatory ranking techniques that have guided successful investment decisions across market cycles.

📊 Explore The Finmagine™ Methodology

A comprehensive, bias-free framework for analyzing and ranking stocks by Financial Strength, Growth Potential, Competitive Edge, Management Quality, and Value.

⚠️ Important Disclaimers — Please read without fail.

Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

Not SEC-Registered:
Finmagine is not registered as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or any state securities authority. Nothing on this platform constitutes investment advice as defined under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.

Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
The author and/or analyst may currently hold or have previously held positions in the securities discussed. Any such positions are not intended to influence the objectivity or independence of the analysis. This research is produced independently and is not sponsored, endorsed, or commissioned by any company or institution.

Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

Forward-Looking Statements:
This analysis may contain forward-looking statements, forecasts, or projections that are inherently subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Finmagine does not undertake any obligation to update such statements in the future.

Limitation of Liability:
The content is provided "as is" without any warranties, express or implied. Finmagine expressly disclaims any liability for errors, omissions, or any losses incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided. Readers assume full responsibility for their investment decisions.