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Six Flags Entertainment Corporation
$1.7B
Market Cap
16.4
P/E
0.72
PEG
-18.5%
ROCE
N/M
ROE
6.86
D/E
-44.4%
OPM
-38.0%
% from 52W High
20
α RS
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Currency-adjusted total returns for FUN including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
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About

Six Flags Entertainment Corporation operates amusement parks and resort properties in North America.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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3-Statement Financial Model
Bear / Base / Bull projections · DCF fair value · Reverse-DCF
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🎙 Management Tone Mixed → Stable 3 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
📊 MIXED Q1 2026 attendance +4%, per capita +6%, net revenue +12% YoY
Revenue & Profitability
Net revenue increased 12% compared to the prior year. Attendance rose 4% and per capita spending increased 6% (admissions per capita +3%, in-park per capita +10%). Operating costs declined meaningfully, driving a $48 million improvement in adjusted EBITDA. No specific revenue or net income dollar figures were provided.
Outlook
Management cautions against extrapolating Q1 results to the full year, as Q1 represents only 6-8% of annual attendance and revenue, and is seasonally unprofitable. They note more competitive comparisons related to last year's marketing activity and promotional cadence but remain encouraged by positive momentum through April. No formal guidance is provided.
Growth Drivers
Key growth levers include pricing and revenue management enhancements, the introduction of a regional pass (new for 2026) that upgrades pass tiers and increases cross-park visitation, and the reintroduction of membership products with higher renewal rates. New attractions (Tormenta, MonteZOOMa, Looney Tunes Land) aim to expand the addressable audience.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
CapEx is expected to be in the range of $425-$450 million for the year, with a reallocation toward higher-return parks after the sale of non-core assets. Cash interest is forecast at $300-$320 million, and cash taxes at $25-$30 million, before a significant income tax refund. Q1 CapEx was lighter but expected to align with the annual range.
Margins
Management expressed dissatisfaction with a 2025 EBITDA margin of 27%, targeting improvement to the 30%+ range, consistent with industry comps. Cost levers include procurement savings, overhead reduction, and automation initiatives. Q1 operating costs were down meaningfully year-over-year, contributing to a $48 million EBITDA improvement.
Key Risks
Management flagged seasonality (Q1 is only 6-8% of annual results), more competitive year-over-year comparisons in marketing and promotions, potential maintenance cost pressure in Q2, and external factors such as weather. They emphasized an agile approach and focus on controllable levers rather than macro headwinds.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-06
Attendance grew 4% and net revenue rose 2% year-over-year on a same-park basis, with adjusted EBITDA up 7% in Q2 and 63% for the first half. Strategic focus on guest experience, expanded pass programs, and disciplined capital allocation is driving improved margins and long-term growth.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-07
Q1 saw double-digit revenue growth, higher attendance, and improved guest spending, driven by new pass offerings, cost discipline, and operational enhancements. Strategic asset sales and leadership changes sharpened focus on high-return parks, with CapEx and cash flow redirected accordingly.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-19
Q4 and full-year results showed strong per capita spending but lower attendance due to event cuts, with Adjusted EBITDA at $165M for Q4 and $792M for the year. Leadership is focused on operational discipline, tailored local strategies, and margin expansion, with CapEx and deleveraging as capital priorities.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-07
Q3 results were mixed, with flat adjusted EBITDA and a 2% revenue decline year-over-year, driven by strong summer attendance offset by a September downturn. The company revised full-year EBITDA guidance to $780–$805 million and is focusing on optimizing its park portfolio, advancing integration, and refining its strategy for 2026.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-06
Leadership transition and merger integration defined the quarter, with severe weather and macro headwinds driving a sharp attendance and EBITDA decline in early 2025. July saw a strong rebound, and cost synergies plus asset sales are expected to support deleveraging and future growth.
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📊 Analysis Methodology

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
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Information Sources:
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