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Shift4 Payments, Inc.
NYSE: FOUR Technology IT 🔎 Screen
$3.2B
Market Cap
58.3
P/E
0.69
PEG
6.9%
ROCE
9.9%
ROE
2.36
D/E
8.4%
OPM
-49.5%
% from 52W High
16
α RS
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for FOUR including FX impact
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📈 Price History
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About

Shift4 Payments, Inc. engages in the provision of software and payment processing solutions in the United States and internationally.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📈 Growth Pattern
📊 Quick Scorecard
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding FOUR
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 424.5K $18.6M 0.02% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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3-Statement Financial Model
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🎙 Management Tone Confident Specific ~ Volatile 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
📊 MIXED Shift4 Q1 2026: GRLNF +49% to $549M, Adj EBITDA $234M, 39% YoY growth
Revenue & Profitability
Q1 2026 gross revenue was $1.12B. Gross revenue less network fees was $549M (+49% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA was $234M (+39% YoY, 43% margin). Adjusted free cash flow was $88M (+26% YoY). Non-GAAP EPS was $0.97. Adjusted free cash flow per share was $0.95.
Outlook
Management sees neutral same-store sales trends in the Americas, with a modest positive in Q1 better than expectations. They are not forecasting a dramatic recovery in H2 2026. The full-year guidance remains unchanged, calling for 26%-31% GRLNF growth. The Middle East conflict created a travel headwind of $4M-$6M per month for the tax-free shopping business in March, which is baked into Q2 guidance.
Growth Drivers
International expansion is scaling: Shift4 One (combining payments, DCC, tax-free shopping) is in 7 countries, targeting 15 by year-end, with 70,000 SMB prospects. Americas payments revenue grew 15%, worldwide (ex-Americas) grew 51%. Sports and entertainment wins include Inter Miami, Chicago Fire, Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs, and LA 2028 ticketing. Cross-selling from acquisitions (Givex, Global Blue) adds gift cards and loyalty.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Not explicitly discussed for infrastructure or capacity. AI investments were highlighted as enabling faster scaling in new markets with fewer resources and improving operational efficiency across functions (legal, HR, marketing). The company intends to continue investing in international market expansion.
Margins
Adjusted EBITDA margin was 43% in Q1, in line with guidance. Management sees a path back to 50% margins as international operations sufficiently scale. Cost structure is variable in early-stage markets (residual commissions) and fixed as density grows (direct sales in SG&A). The company emphasizes disciplined expense management and AI-driven efficiency.
Key Risks
Key risks flagged include the Middle East conflict disrupting travel, impacting the tax-free shopping category (estimated $4M-$6M monthly headwind in March). Same-store sales softness in U.S. restaurant SMBs has been ongoing since Q3 2025, though Q1 trends were slightly better. Seasonality of tax-free shopping (H1 cash consumptive, H2 generative) and potential continued travel disruptions are noted.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-06
Q2 2026 results exceeded guidance with 34% revenue growth and 51% GRLNF growth, driven by strong payments and international expansion. Despite travel disruptions from the Middle East conflict, diversified segments and disciplined capital allocation supported resilient performance.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-07
Record Q1 2026 results with 49% GRLNF growth and 39% higher Adjusted EBITDA, driven by resilient U.S. and international expansion. Guidance remains unchanged despite travel headwinds, with strong capital discipline and continued share repurchases.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-26
Record 2025 results driven by global expansion, M&A, and strong execution, with 46% GRLNF growth and 49% EBITDA margins. 2026 guidance targets 26–31% GRLNF growth, stable spreads, and continued disciplined capital allocation, despite macro and FX headwinds.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-06
Q3 results met guidance with 61% YoY growth in gross revenue less network fees and 56% YoY growth in Adjusted EBITDA. Full-year 2025 guidance was reaffirmed, a $1B share repurchase was announced, and Global Blue integration contributed positively despite currency headwinds.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-05
Q2 delivered record growth in payment volumes, revenue, and EBITDA, driven by international expansion, successful acquisitions, and strong core verticals. Guidance for 2025 was raised, with Global Blue expected to significantly boost results.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
The author and/or analyst may currently hold or have previously held positions in the securities discussed. Any such positions are not intended to influence the objectivity or independence of the analysis. This research is produced independently and is not sponsored, endorsed, or commissioned by any company or institution.

Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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