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Credo Technology Group Holding
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$41.3B
Market Cap
73.5
P/E
0.33
PEG
97.8%
ROCE
34.4%
ROE
0.01
D/E
33.3%
OPM
-26.4%
% from 52W High
87
α RS
🔍 CRDO is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 20 of 37 tracked screener presets, RS Rating is 87, and an ECS of 92.6 last quarter. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RS Rating ECS
Sources
Conviction 20/37 · RS Rating 87 · ECS 92.6
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📈 Price History
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About

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd provides various high-speed connectivity solutions for optical and electrical Ethernet and PCIe applications in the United States, Taiwan, Mainland China, Hong Kong, and other international markets.

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Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q4 2026
Revenue
$437M
+157% YoY
Non-GAAP Net Income
$227M
+200% YoY
Non-GAAP Operating Margin
49.6%
flat QoQ
Non-GAAP Gross Margin
68.3%
+310 bps YoY (FY)
What Went Right
  • Q4 revenue of $437M beat high end of guidance; full-year revenue more than tripled to $1.3B.
  • ZeroFlap AEC adoption remains strong across hyperscalers and neo clouds, with 1,000x reliability advantage.
  • Optical portfolio on track for $600M+ revenue in FY2027, with DSPs, SiPho PICs and ZeroFlap Optics each >$100M.
What to Watch
  • Supply chain tightness for 3nm and optical components could constrain second-half ramp.
  • Customer concentration remains high with four customers each >10% of Q4 revenue (top at 34%).
  • Tariff regime remains fluid and could impact cost structure; guidance assumes current tariffs.
Management Guidance
  • Q1 FY2027 revenue: $465M-$475M.
  • Q1 non-GAAP gross margin: 67%-69%; non-GAAP opex: $86M-$90M.
  • Full-year FY2027 revenue expected to grow >80% YoY, with optical portfolio contributing >$600M.
Investor Lens
The thesis is stronger after this call. Credo is scaling rapidly with revenue tripling and net income quintupling in FY2026. The optical inflection in FY2027 provides a second growth engine, with each of three optical sub-segments (DSPs, SiPho PICs, ZeroFlap Optics) expected to exceed $100M. Management's confidence in supply chain commitments and the neo cloud expansion offset concentration and tariff risks. The balance sheet ($1.4B cash) supports further M&A and organic investment.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Record Q4 caps transformative year; optical growth to accelerate
Revenue
Q4 revenue was $437M, up 157% YoY and 7% sequentially, beating the high end of guidance. Full-year FY2026 revenue reached $1.3B, more than tripling YoY. Growth was driven by four domestic customers, each ≥10% of Q4 revenue. Copper AECs remain the largest contributor, but optical is poised to drive second-half FY2027 growth.
Profitability
Non-GAAP net income was a record $226.7M in Q4, more than tripling YoY. Full-year non-GAAP net income rose five-fold to $662M. GAAP net income was $169.1M. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $1.16, up from $0.88 in Q3. The company generated $182.2M in operating cash flow in Q4.
Margins
Non-GAAP gross margin was 68.3% in Q4, above the high end of guidance and 310 bps higher than FY2025 full-year gross margin of 68.1%. Non-GAAP operating margin held steady at 49.6% sequentially. The company expects FY2027 gross margins to be broadly consistent with FY2026 levels.
Balance Sheet
Credo ended Q4 with $1.4B in cash and equivalents, up $141.8M sequentially, driven by strong free cash flow of $177.5M. CapEx was modest at $4.8M. Inventory increased to $250.8M. Post quarter-end, the DustPhotonics acquisition closed for ~$750M net, but the company remains well-capitalized with no plans to raise additional capital.
Key Risks
Management flagged supply chain tightness across 3nm, 5nm and optical components, but expressed confidence in commitments. Customer concentration risk remains high with four customers each ≥10% of Q4 revenue. Tariff policy uncertainty was noted as a variable that could impact future cost structure. The 200G per lane transition may be slower than expected, with FY2027 light on that revenue.
Outlook
Q1 FY2027 revenue guided to $465M-$475M with non-GAAP gross margin of 67%-69%. For full-year FY2027, Credo expects >80% revenue growth, driven by optical portfolio (>$600M total) and continued AEC strength. Non-GAAP net margin is expected near 50% as opex grows ~50% YoY, well below revenue growth.
Generated by AI · Q4 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q4 2026 Q4 2026 2026-06-01
Fiscal 2026 saw revenue more than triple and net income rise over 5x, driven by AI infrastructure demand and strong adoption of connectivity solutions. FY 2027 guidance projects over 80% revenue growth, with optical products contributing more than $600 million.
Q3 2026 Q3 2026 2026-03-02
Record Q3 revenue and profitability driven by hyperscaler demand and strong AEC/IC growth. New products like ZeroFlap optics and ALCs expand market opportunity, with customer pull-in accelerating adoption. Guidance calls for continued robust growth and margin strength.
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2025-12-01
Record Q2 revenue and net income driven by AI cluster demand and AEC growth, with new product pillars expanding TAM to over $10B. Q3 guidance projects continued strong growth, while long-term gross margin is expected to normalize to 63%-65%.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2025-09-03
Record Q1 revenue and profitability driven by strong AI infrastructure demand, with robust growth in AEC, optical, and retimer segments. Customer base is diversifying, and guidance points to continued sequential and year-over-year growth, supported by strong margins and cash flow.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2025-06-02
Record fiscal 2025 revenue and profitability were driven by strong demand for high-speed connectivity, especially in AI and data center markets. Guidance for fiscal 2026 projects over 85% revenue growth, with continued customer diversification and margin expansion.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
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