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ConocoPhillips
S&P 500
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$168.9B
Market Cap
14.7
P/E
8.13
PEG
8.4%
ROCE
12.4%
ROE
0.36
D/E
18.5%
OPM
-2.3%
% from 52W High
77
α RS
🔍 COP is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 9 of 37 tracked screener presets, Sector RRG has Energy in the Leading quadrant with the trail still rolling over, and RS Rating is 77. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RRG RS Rating
Sources
Conviction 9/37 · Energy in Leading quadrant · RS Rating 77
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for COP including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
Poor
By Category
📊 Sector Averages
About

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding COP
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 530.3K $70.0M 0.09% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Production
2,248 MBOED
-6% YoY
Adjusted EPS
$3.24
+128% YoY
Net Income
$3.9B
+95% YoY
Free Cash Flow
$4.2B
n/a
Cash from Operations
$7.2B
n/a
What Went Right
  • Production of 2,248 MBOED came in above the high end of guidance, with record Permian output surpassing 900,000 bpd.
  • Generated $4.2B of free cash flow and returned $3B to shareholders, including doubling share repurchases quarter-over-quarter.
  • Achieved the $5B disposition target ahead of schedule and expanded LNG offtake to 12 MTPA with new Iraq/Syria opportunities.
What to Watch
  • Qatar was largely shut in during Q2 due to the Middle East conflict and the Q3 guidance assumes a ramp with pace uncertainty.
  • NFE/NFS first-gas delays are expected to be months, not a year, though management says the free cash flow inflection is not impacted.
  • Commodity price volatility is acknowledged, and distribution timing is not managed quarter-to-quarter despite the 45% CFO payout target.
Management Guidance
  • Q3 production guidance: 2,290–2,320 MBOED.
  • Full-year guidance items unchanged; 2026 target remains 45% return of CFO to shareholders.
  • $7B free cash flow inflection by 2029 remains on track, with CapEx expected to move lower after Willow peaks.
Investor Lens
The thesis is stronger after this call: a clean operational beat, record Permian production, $4.2B of free cash flow, and a step-up in shareholder distributions. The $7B FCF inflection by 2029 is reaffirmed, with Willow peak capex behind and a structurally declining reinvestment rate. New conventional adds in Iraq/Syria and expanded LNG offtake provide upside without breaking the capital allocation framework. The main uncertainty remains Qatar's ramp pace, but management sees manageable project delays.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Strong beat: production above guidance, record Permian, $4.2B FCF.
Revenue
Total production was 2,248 MBOED, above the high end of guidance, and average realized price rose 36% YoY to $62.33/BOE. Lower 48 delivered 1,479 MBOED, including 720 MBOED from the Delaware Basin. Dollar revenue was not disclosed on the call.
Profitability
Reported net income was $3.9B, or $3.23 per share, and adjusted EPS was $3.24 versus $1.42 in the prior-year quarter. The increase was driven primarily by higher realized prices.
Margins
No explicit operating margin was disclosed. Realized price uplift and capital efficiency supported CFO of $7.2B; with $3.0B of capex, free cash flow was $4.2B.
Balance Sheet
Quarter-end cash and short-term investments were $8.1B, with $1.2B of liquid long-term investments. Leverage remained well below 1x. Shareholder distributions totaled $3.0B, split between $2.0B of buybacks and $1.0B of ordinary dividends.
Key Risks
Qatar production was largely shut in during Q2 because of the Middle East conflict, and Q3 guidance assumes a ramp with pace uncertainty. Management expects NFE/NFS delays to be measured in months, not a year. Commodity volatility remains a factor, and distributions are not managed on a quarterly basis.
Outlook
Q3 production guidance is 2,290–2,320 MBOED, with full-year guidance unchanged. The 2026 target remains 45% return of CFO, supporting the $7B free cash flow inflection by 2029.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-06
Q2 2026 saw record production, $4.2B in free cash flow, and increased shareholder returns. Strategic growth in LNG and the Middle East, plus a completed $5B asset sale, position the company for a $7B free cash flow inflection by 2029.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-30
Q1 2026 saw strong free cash flow and shareholder returns, with robust Lower 48 and Alaska performance and significant progress in LNG projects. Updated guidance reflects Middle East disruptions, while capital efficiency and cost reductions remain priorities.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-05
Delivered strong 2025 results with higher production, lower costs, and robust shareholder returns. Integration of Marathon Oil and progress on major projects, including LNG and Willow, position the company for significant free cash flow growth and lower breakeven costs through 2029.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-06
Q3 saw record production, reduced costs, and an 8% dividend increase. Willow project costs rose due to inflation, but major projects and LNG remain on track, supporting a $7B free cash flow inflection by 2029. 2026 guidance points to lower CapEx/OpEx and steady production.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-07
Q2 2025 saw strong execution, exceeding production guidance and completing the Marathon Oil integration with higher synergies and resource upgrades. Asset sales targets were raised to $5B, and free cash flow is set to inflect with lower CapEx and major project startups.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
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Information Sources:
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