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Churchill Downs Incorporated
$6.7B
Market Cap
21.5
P/E
1.82
PEG
8.4%
ROCE
35.7%
ROE
4.80
D/E
23.4%
OPM
-25.5%
% from 52W High
25
α RS
🔍 CHDN is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 7 of 37 tracked screener presets and it's hugging the 21 EMA. Net: Partial signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction Technicals
Sources
Conviction 7/37 · hugging 21 EMA
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for CHDN including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
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By Category
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About

Churchill Downs Incorporated operates live and historical racing entertainment venues, online wagering businesses, and regional casino gaming properties in the United States.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding CHDN
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 169.6K $15.2M 0.02% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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📊 MIXED Record Q1 2026: revenue $663M, EBITDA $257M, strong HRM growth, Derby expansion.
Revenue & Profitability
First quarter 2026 net revenues were a record $663 million and adjusted EBITDA a record $257 million. Free cash flow totaled $276 million, or $3.94 per share. Live and Historical Racing segment adjusted EBITDA grew 11% year over year, with Kentucky HRM EBITDA up 17% and Virginia HRM EBITDA up 6%. Wagering Services and Solutions EBITDA increased 8%. No net income or operating income figures were provided.
Outlook
Management is optimistic about the experience economy and sees growing international interest in the Kentucky Derby. The Virginia legislative environment was described as stable after the governor vetoed skill games and a new casino bill, and iGaming did not pass. Weather-related disruption and some softness in lower-value unrated segments outside Kentucky were noted as near-term headwinds. Overall, the company sees a long runway for HRM growth in Kentucky and Virginia.
Growth Drivers
Key growth levers include the rollout of roulette-based ETGs in Kentucky, with future plans for craps and blackjack variants. The Marshall Yards HRM venue opened in February 2026 and is performing well. In Virginia, The Rose HRM property is showing sequential GGR-per-machine-per-day increases. Derby Week expansion continues with a new Sunday race day and premium hospitality upgrades (Victory Run project for 2028). The Preakness IP acquisition and the Rockingham Grand Casino in New Hampshire (targeting mid-2027) are additional growth catalysts.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Project capital expenditures were $40 million in Q1 2026; full-year guidance is $180–$220 million. Maintenance capex was $19 million in Q1, with full-year guidance of $90–$110 million. Notable investments include the Victory Run premium suite project at Churchill Downs (completion for 2028 Derby) and the Rockingham Grand Casino in Salem, New Hampshire. The Preakness IP acquisition carries a base fee of $3 million (growing 2.5% annually from 2028) plus 2% of handle on race days.
Margins
Not discussed in this earnings call.
Key Risks
Legislative risk was a recurring theme: in Virginia, skill games and a proposed casino were vetoed, but iGaming remains a potential future threat. Geopolitical events (tariffs) affected Derby ticket sales last year but not in Q1 2026. Weather caused $2 million of disruption in January. Softness in lower-value unrated segments outside Kentucky was noted. The Preakness IP acquisition depends on state collaboration and a $525 million legislative funding package for Pimlico.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-30
Record Q2 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA were driven by a strong Kentucky Derby week, robust HRM and wagering growth, and strategic capital investments. Plans to sell nine regional gaming properties will fund debt reduction, reinvestment, and share repurchases.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-23
Record Q1 revenue and adjusted EBITDA driven by strong HRM and wagering growth, new venue openings, and strategic acquisition of Preakness IP. Kentucky and Virginia markets remain robust, with Derby Week expansion and hospitality upgrades fueling future growth.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-26
Record revenue and Adjusted EBITDA were achieved in 2025, driven by strong Derby performance, HRM expansion, and disciplined capital allocation. Outlook for 2026 is positive, with incremental Derby EBITDA, continued investment, and strong free cash flow expected.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-23
Record Q3 net revenue and adjusted EBITDA were driven by strong growth in live and historical racing, wagering, and regional gaming. Major capital projects and strategic investments are expected to fuel continued growth, with disciplined capital management and a positive outlook for 2026 and beyond.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-24
Q2 2025 delivered record revenue and adjusted EBITDA, driven by strong HRM and Derby performance. Growth catalysts include new NBC contract, capital investments, and expanding HRM footprint, with robust free cash flow and a new $500M share repurchase program.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Information Sources:
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