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CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
S&P 500
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$21.0B
Market Cap
8.6
P/E
0.28
PEG
19.8%
ROCE
23.4%
ROE
0.45
D/E
32.5%
OPM
-5.2%
% from 52W High
78
α RS
🔍 CF is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 22 of 37 tracked screener presets, Sector RRG has Materials in the Leading quadrant with the trail still strengthening, and RS Rating is 78. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RRG RS Rating
Sources
Conviction 22/37 · Materials in Leading quadrant · RS Rating 78
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for CF including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
Poor
By Category
📊 Sector Averages
About

CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding CF
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 247.6K $32.1M 0.05% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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📊 MIXED CF Industries Q1 2026: Adjusted EBITDA $983M, tight global nitrogen market
Revenue & Profitability
Net earnings attributable to common stockholders were approximately $615 million or $3.98 per diluted share. EBITDA was approximately $1 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $983 million, which includes a $170 million litigation settlement gain. Trailing 12-month net cash from operations was about $2.7 billion and free cash flow approximately $1.65 billion.
Outlook
Management expects global nitrogen markets to remain tight through 2026 and into 2027 due to the conflict with Iran and ongoing Russia-Ukraine disruptions. Lost Middle Eastern production cannot be recovered quickly, and trade flows will take time to recalibrate. India's urea import requirements could rise to 10-12 million metric tons in 2026, up 10-30% from 2025. Unmet demand is expected in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, leading to lower yields and higher crop prices.
Growth Drivers
Key growth levers include the Blue Point ammonia plant (over 1.5 million tons gross capacity) and decarbonization opportunities such as low-carbon ammonia and upgraded products. The company is seeding the market with low-carbon product from Donaldsonville and expects incremental free cash flow from these initiatives. Additionally, the structural shift in global risk perception strengthens mid-cycle economics and the value of CF's assets.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Consolidated capital expenditure projection for 2026 is approximately $1.3 billion. CF Industries' portion is about $950 million: $550 million sustaining CapEx plus $400 million related to the Blue Point joint venture and common infrastructure. Construction of the Blue Point ammonia plant is expected to commence this year once permits are received, with operations beginning late 2029.
Margins
Not discussed in this earnings call.
Key Risks
Management flagged geopolitical disruptions (Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz closure, Russia-Ukraine war) as major risks impacting supply and trade flows. Export restrictions by China and Egypt, as well as nationalistic moves to prioritize domestic agriculture, further constrain supply. Fragility in LNG feedstock and shipping logistics also pose risks. The company noted that while its North American network is resilient, a supply disruption of this magnitude has few global options to overcome.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-06
Adjusted EBITDA reached $2.2B in H1 2026, with strong operational performance and high asset utilization amid a tight global nitrogen market. Strategic projects like Blue Point and Yazoo City upgrades are advancing, and capital returns to shareholders remain robust.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-07
Adjusted EBITDA reached $983 million in Q1 2026, driven by strong operations and a tight global nitrogen market. Geopolitical disruptions and export restrictions are expected to keep nitrogen prices elevated through 2027, supporting robust free cash flow and disciplined capital allocation.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-19
Adjusted EBITDA reached $2.9B in 2025, with strong operational performance and robust free cash flow. The Yazoo City outage will reduce 2026 ammonia output, but insurance is expected to offset most losses. Blue Point JV and low-carbon initiatives are advancing, supporting a positive outlook.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-06
Adjusted EBITDA reached $2.1 billion for the first nine months of 2025, with strong free cash flow and a 25% reduction in GHG emissions intensity. Tight global nitrogen markets, robust demand, and premium pricing for low-carbon ammonia support a positive outlook, while share repurchases and strategic investments continue.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-07
Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.4 billion in H1 2025, with strong operational performance and robust capital returns. Tight global nitrogen supply-demand, successful CCS project launch, and continued share repurchases position the company for long-term value creation.
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📊 Analysis Methodology

This comprehensive investment analysis was conducted using The Finmagine™ Stock Analysis & Ranking Methodology, a proprietary framework that systematically evaluates stocks across five critical dimensions: Financial Health, Growth Prospects, Competitive Positioning, Management Quality, and Valuation.

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
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Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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