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Casey's General Stores, Inc.
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NASDAQ: CASY Consumer Discretionary Consumer 🔎 Screen
S&P 500
🏹 Trader: 🚀 Stage 2 + Near High 📈 Stage 2 🎯 Near 52W High | BRS 81 Ready View all →
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$30.9B
Market Cap
31.6
P/E
2.47
PEG
12.6%
ROCE
19.2%
ROE
0.71
D/E
5.9%
OPM
-9.9%
% from 52W High
80
α RS
🔍 CASY is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 5 of 37 tracked screener presets, RS Rating is 80, and an ECS of 52.1 last quarter. Net: Broad signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RS Rating ECS
Sources
Conviction 5/37 · RS Rating 80 · ECS 52.1
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for CASY including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
— Excellent
— Good
— Average
— Poor
By Category
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About

Casey's General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey’s General Store names in the United States.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q4 2026
Net Income
$162.7M
+65.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
$4.37
+66.2% YoY
EBITDA
$350.3M
+33.2% YoY
What Went Right
  • EPS up 66% to $4.37, beating prior year by $1.74 on stronger inside and fuel gross profits.
  • Fuel margin hit $0.469 per gallon, up $0.093 YoY, driving fuel gross profit up 29.1% to $397.4M.
  • Inside same-store sales rose 5.5% with margin up 120 bps to 42.4%; prepared food margin expanded 170 bps to 59.5%.
What to Watch
  • Operating expenses rose 10.1% in Q4, driven partly by higher incentive compensation and charitable contributions.
  • CEFCO store remodels cause 4-6 week closures; management sees FY27 store performance roughly neutral due to disruption.
  • Fuel demand softness could emerge near $5 per gallon; management noted early signs of premium-to-ethanol mix shifts.
Management Guidance
  • FY2027: Inside same-store sales +2%-5%, inside margin above 42%.
  • FY2027: Same-store fuel gallons -1% to +1%, total operating expenses +5%-7%.
  • FY2027: EBITDA +8%-10%, net interest ~$95M, D&A ~$490M, PP&E ~$800M, tax rate 24%-26%, 120+ new stores.
  • Q1 FY2027 operating expenses expected up high single digits, partly due to higher credit card fees.
Investor Lens
This quarter reinforces Casey's flywheel of strong inside-food margins and resilient fuel profitability. Record EBITDA, expanding margins, and a clear FY27 growth algorithm make the thesis stronger. The CEFCO conversion drag is well-flagged and should clear by next year, while fuel margin structural support appears durable. Watch fuel price volatility and OpEx inflation, but the overall trajectory remains bullish.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Record Q4: EPS $4.37, EBITDA $350M, inside margins strong
Revenue
Total revenue not disclosed, but inside sales rose 7.4% to $1.518B and fuel retail sales jumped ~$446M on higher prices and volumes. Inside same-store sales were up 5.5% with prepared food leading at +6.6%.
Profitability
Net income reached $162.7M, up 65.5% YoY; diluted EPS rose 66.2% to $4.37. EBITDA grew 33.2% to $350.3M, driven by robust gross profit expansion.
Margins
Inside margin expanded 120 bps to 42.4%, with prepared food margin up 170 bps to 59.5% on waste improvement and cheese cost tailwinds. Fuel margin reached $0.469 per gallon, up $0.093 YoY.
Balance Sheet
Total liquidity stood at $1.4B with debt/EBITDA at 1.5x. Quarterly free cash flow was $207M and full-year FCF reached $722M, including a ~$100M tax benefit from recent legislation.
Key Risks
Management flagged potential fuel demand destruction if retail prices approach $5/gallon, plus ongoing CEFCO remodel closures that temporarily limit store output. Q4 OpEx growth of 10.1% included one-off incentive comp and charitable giving, which should normalize.
Outlook
FY2027 guidance calls for 8%-10% EBITDA growth on mid-40s fuel margin modeling assumptions and inside comps of 2%-5%. Q1 operating expenses are expected up high single digits, partially due to higher credit card fees.
Generated by AI · Q4 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q4 2026 Q4 2026 2026-06-10
Record annual results with 31% EPS and net income growth, 23% EBITDA increase, and strong inside and fuel sales. Fiscal 2027 guidance calls for continued sales and EBITDA growth, robust store expansion, and margin strength, supported by operational efficiency and industry tailwinds.
Q3 2026 Q3 2026 2026-03-10
Q3 FY26 saw EPS up 50% and net income up 49% year-over-year, with strong inside sales and margin expansion. Guidance was raised for EBITDA and inside sales, while integration of acquisitions and new product rollouts continue to drive growth.
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2025-12-10
Q2 saw double-digit growth in EPS, net income, and EBITDA, with strong inside and fuel sales driving results. Guidance for FY26 was raised, and share repurchases increased, while market share gains and margin expansion continued across key categories.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2025-09-09
EPS grew 19% year-over-year, with net income and EBITDA up 20%. Revenue rose 11.5% to $4.6B, driven by strong inside and fuel sales. Margin expansion in grocery and market share gains in fuel offset SEFCO drag; guidance to be updated after Q2.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2025-06-10
Record fiscal 2025 results featured double-digit growth in net income, EBITDA, and store count, driven by strong inside sales and the Fikes/CEFCO acquisition. Fiscal 2026 guidance calls for continued EBITDA growth, stable margins, and at least 80 new stores.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
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Information Sources:
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