📈 Price History

Ratio Health

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By Category

📊 Peer Medians

About

Blue Bird Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. It offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative power options through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses, as well as diesel engines. The company also sells replacement bus parts; and provides extended warranties related to its products. Blue Bird Corporation sells its products through drop ship and a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; independent service centers; and maintains a parts distribution center. It has a collaboration with Ford Motor Company to create the next generation of F-53/F-59 commercial stripped chassis. Blue Bird Corporation was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.

Key Ratios Snapshot

📈 Growth Pattern

⚡ Latest Quarter —

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📊 Quick Scorecard

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⭐ Superinvestors Holding BLBD

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Manager	Shares	Value	% of Fund	Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC	367.5K	$20.9M	0.03%	Mar 2026
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management	50.8K	$2.9M	0.00%	Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

🔍 Concall Decoded

🎙 Management Tone Tracker Confident Specific → Stable 4 quarters analysed

Q3 2025

Confident Specific

Management repeatedly used words like 'record', 'all-time record', 'beat guidance for the 11th consecutive quarter', and gave precise figures ($398M revenue, $58M adjusted EBITDA). They acknowledged tariff uncertainty but framed it as temporary and manageable, stating the business is 'well-positioned to navigate this situation to a margin-neutral outcome.'

Q4 2025

Confident Specific

Management repeatedly emphasized record results ('beat guidance on all metrics', 'record sales and Adjusted EBITDA'), provided specific figures (9,409 units, $1.48B revenue, $221M EBITDA), and expressed confidence in navigating tariff volatility ('margin-neutral outcome').

Q1 2026

Confident Specific

Management repeatedly emphasizes beating guidance for the 13th consecutive quarter, highlights a 45% order intake increase, and gives specific figures like $50M Adjusted EBITDA, 2,135 units sold, and $333M revenue. They also acknowledge tariff volatility but express confidence in managing it to a margin-neutral outcome.

Q2 2026 latest

Confident Specific

Management repeatedly emphasized beating guidance for the 14th consecutive quarter, described results as 'outstanding' and 'record', and provided specific positive metrics (e.g., $51M Adjusted EBITDA, $40M free cash flow). Language such as 'we continue to demonstrate credibility by delivering on our targets' and 'we are well-positioned to navigate tariff volatility to a margin-neutral outcome' conveys certainty.

Guidance Reliability Pending · <3Q data

Investor Lens

The investment thesis is strengthened after this call. Blue Bird delivered another quarter of beating guidance and raised its full-year revenue and EBITDA targets, showing operational consistency. The Micro Bird acquisition expands TAM by 78% and adds a new growth vector in commercial shuttle buses with Buy America certification. The new plant with automation and DOE grant reinforces a path to long-term margin expansion and production contingency. However, watch for tariff volatility (management aims for margin-neutral) and the ramp of Micro Bird shuttle bus revenue. The strong balance sheet ($418M liquidity) and active buyback support shareholder returns. Next quarter: focus on Micro Bird consolidation impact, order trends in Type A and commercial segments, and any EPA Clean School Bus Program updates.

AI-generated concall tone analysis · Updated 2026-06-09 · Not investment advice

🎙 Management Tone Confident Specific → Stable 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →

📊 MIXED Blue Bird Q2 2026: Record Adj EBITDA $51M, Revenue $353M, Backlog 3,600

Revenue & Profitability

Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue was $353 million, down $6 million year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was a record $51 million, up $1.6 million from prior year. Adjusted net income was $32.5 million, and adjusted free cash flow reached $40 million. Full-year fiscal 2026 guidance (post Micro Bird acquisition) is revenue of $1.725–$1.775 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $235–$255 million.

Outlook

Management views school bus market fundamentals as strong, with an aging fleet (over 180,000 buses older than 10 years) and pent-up demand from COVID. ACT Research forecasts approximately 6% CAGR over the next several years. The EPA Clean School Bus Program remains intact, with rounds four and five expected. Management expects to manage tariff volatility to a margin-neutral outcome.

Growth Drivers

Key growth drivers include the Micro Bird acquisition, which increases total addressable market by 78% through Type A school buses and Buy America commercial shuttle buses. EV demand is strong with over 900 units in backlog extending into 2027. The new plant will provide capacity of 9,000 Type C buses per year on one shift. The commercial stripped chassis market also offers additional growth.

Balance Sheet & CapEx

Blue Bird is investing over $300 million in a new 1-million-square-foot plant, with $80 million funded by a DOE MESC grant. Production is scheduled to start in Q4 calendar 2028. For fiscal 2026, extraordinary CapEx of $25 million is included for the company's 50% portion of the plant investment. Free cash flow guidance is $100–$125 million.

Margins

Q2 gross margin was a record 20%, up 30 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.4%, up 70 basis points. For full fiscal 2026 (post Micro Bird), guided Adjusted EBITDA margin is approximately 14%. Medium-term target is $275 million Adjusted EBITDA; long-term target is $325–$375+ million at 14%–15%+ margins.

Key Risks

Management identified tariff volatility from administration policies as a key risk, though they aim for margin-neutral outcomes. Healthcare cost increases and lower overhead absorption impacted Q2 results. In Q&A, EPA funding uncertainty was discussed, with potential shifts toward propane. Production scheduling is challenged by lower production days due to holidays.

Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice

✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter

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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)

Q3 2026 Q3 2026 2026-08-05

Record Q3 results exceeded guidance, driven by strong sales, disciplined pricing, and strategic moves including the Micro Bird acquisition and a major Ford collaboration. Raised full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance and long-term outlook, with robust liquidity and a growing presence in specialty vehicles.

Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-05-06

Record Q2 results with $353M revenue and $51M Adjusted EBITDA, raising full-year guidance post-Micro Bird acquisition. Strong cash flow, robust backlog, and strategic investments in automation and new plant position the company for long-term growth.

Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-02-04

Record Q1 results exceeded guidance, with revenue up 6% and Adjusted EBITDA at $50M. Strong order intake, robust EV and alt power performance, and a solid balance sheet support raised full-year guidance. Margin expansion and automation initiatives underpin a positive long-term outlook.

Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2025-11-24

Record fiscal 2025 results with $1.48B revenue, $221M Adjusted EBITDA, and strong free cash flow. Guidance for 2026 targets similar performance despite tariff and cost headwinds, with continued investment in automation, EVs, and new manufacturing capacity.

Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-08-06

Record Q3 results with revenue up 20% and adjusted EBITDA at $58M, driven by strong EV and alternative-powered bus sales. Raised full-year guidance, announced a $100M buyback, and continue to invest in automation and new products despite tariff-related order volatility.

📊 Analysis Methodology

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