📊 MIXED BlackSky Q1 revenue $20.8M, raises FY2026 guidance to $130M-$150M; Gen-3 driving 50%+ subscription growth.

Revenue & Profitability

First quarter 2026 revenue was $20.8M. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $5.1M. Full-year 2026 guidance raised: revenue $130M-$150M (over 30% growth at midpoint), adjusted EBITDA $12M-$24M. Total backlog was $351M at March 31, 2026, growing to ~$380M including early April contracts, with ~$90M already booked for 2026. Cash, restricted cash and short-term investments were $117.5M, with total liquidity over $195M.

Outlook

Management sees strong industry demand driven by geopolitical tensions and the need for assured, responsive space-based intelligence. The company's pipeline is growing, and customers are converting pilots into multi-year subscription contracts. U.S. government funding from the FY2026 budget is moving through the system, improving visibility. International demand is accelerating, particularly for sovereign satellite programs and Gen-3 capabilities.

Growth Drivers

Key growth levers include the ramp of Gen-3 subscription services (aiming for >50% growth in 2026), expansion of international sovereign programs, and increasing attach rates of AI analytics. The company is converting a pipeline of six- and seven-figure pilots into long-term contracts, including a $30M one-year subscription deal. International revenue is becoming a larger share, while U.S. government EOCL is assumed flat at current levels.

Balance Sheet & CapEx

Capital expenditure guidance is reaffirmed at $50M-$60M for 2026, unchanged despite raised revenue and EBITDA guidance. Cash CapEx in Q1 2026 was $15.8M. Investments are focused on expanding the Gen-3 constellation (at least eight satellites on orbit this year), developing AROS wide-area collection system, and advancing leap-ahead payload technologies with customer-funded R&D.

Margins

Subscription-based space-based intelligence and AI services deliver gross margins of approximately 80%. The business model shows strong operating leverage, with improving adjusted EBITDA margins driven by revenue growth and flat cash operating expenses. The company raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $12M-$24M (13% margin at midpoint), reflecting margin expansion from higher-margin subscription revenue.

Key Risks

Management flagged dependency on U.S. government EOCL funding, which was reduced last year and is assumed flat in guidance; improvements depend on FY2026 budget allocation. The timing of pipeline conversion into contracts is uncertain, though momentum is strong. No other specific risks were highlighted, but geopolitical events can amplify demand, not hinder it.

Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice

✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter

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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)

Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-06

Q2 2026 saw 50% year-over-year revenue growth, record adjusted EBITDA, and a strengthened balance sheet, driven by Gen-3 satellite adoption and expanding international demand. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance and is on track with satellite deployment and major contract milestones.

Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-07

Q1 2026 saw strong revenue growth, major contract wins, and rapid adoption of Gen-3 solutions, prompting raised full-year guidance. High-margin subscription services and international demand are driving over 50% projected growth in core business, with robust liquidity and operational momentum.

Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-26

Q4 2025 saw near-record results, driven by Gen-3 satellite adoption and strong international demand, with annual revenue up 16% and liquidity more than doubling. 2026 guidance projects 24% revenue growth, continued profitability, and major investments in satellite and AI capabilities.

Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-06

Strong international demand and Gen-3 contract wins drove momentum, with international revenue now half of total and a robust sales pipeline. Cash and liquidity more than doubled year-over-year, and guidance for 2025 is maintained, with a strong Q4 and 2026 outlook expected.

Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-07

Revenue grew 5.2% year-over-year to $51.7M in H1 2025, driven by strong international demand and Gen-3 satellite performance. Liquidity surged to $230M after a $185M convertible note, and guidance for 2025 is $105–$130M revenue with positive adjusted EBITDA expected in H2.

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