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Aurora Innovation, Inc.
$11.5B
Market Cap
P/E
PEG
-104.7%
ROCE
-40.6%
ROE
0.03
D/E
-30,033.3%
OPM
-31.4%
% from 52W High
37
α RS
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for AUR including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
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About

Aurora Innovation, Inc. engages in the self-driving technology business in the United States.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding AUR
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Daniel Loeb Third Point LLC 1.03M $4.3B 0.20% Mar 2026
Daniel Loeb Third Point LLC 1.84M $365.2M 0.02% Mar 2026
Cathie Wood ARK Investment Management 6.45M $26.6M 0.21% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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📊 MIXED Aurora targets over 200 driverless trucks by end of 2026, with $80M revenue run rate.
Revenue & Profitability
Q1 2026 revenue was $1 million, up 10% sequentially from Q4 2025 and in line with full-year guidance of $14-16 million. Operating loss (including stock-based compensation) was $244 million. Excluding stock-based compensation of $46 million, R&D expense was $159 million, SG&A $34 million, and cost of revenue $6 million. Operating cash used was $159 million, and capital expenditures were $25 million. Liquidity stood at nearly $1.3 billion in cash and investments.
Outlook
Management sees strong industry tailwinds: rising driver costs, high fuel costs, and potential freight rate increases. They note growing inbound interest from customers, partly due to the value proposition of 15% fuel savings and doubled truck utilization. Regulatory progress in California enables a coast-to-coast operating environment, expanding the serviceable addressable market to 60 billion vehicle miles by 2028. The company projects autonomous freight as a step change in logistics.
Growth Drivers
Key growth levers include the launch of the second-generation hardware kit in Q2 2026, enabling driverless operations without an observer. The network has expanded to 12 routes, including new bi-directional routes between Dallas-Laredo and Dallas-Oklahoma City. The Driver-as-a-Service (DaaS) business model is set to commence in 2027, with Hirschbach's MOU for 500 trucks representing hundreds of millions in potential revenue. Revenue is back-end loaded, with Q4 2026 expected to contribute over half of full-year revenue.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
2026 CapEx is expected to total approximately $150 million, primarily for capacity expansion. This is considered peak capital spend, with CapEx declining significantly in 2027 as the DaaS model scales. Aumovio broke ground on a New Braunfels, Texas facility expansion (completion Q1 2027, production start H2 2027) to produce third-generation hardware kits for tens of thousands of trucks. Roush is being set up for capacity of 1,000 trucks per year initially.
Margins
Aurora targets gross profit breakeven at an $80 million revenue run rate, supported by a 50% hardware cost reduction from the second-generation kit. For TaaS, the target cost of goods sold is roughly $2 per mile. DaaS pricing is indicated around $0.85 per mile. The company expects to achieve double the utilization of traditional trucks (225,000+ miles per truck annually), driving improved economics. First quarter operating loss (ex-stock comp) was $199 million, with cost of revenue at $6 million.
Key Risks
Management highlighted forward-looking statement caveats, including risks described in their 10-K and 10-Q. In Q&A, analysts asked about technical bottlenecks and scaling quality; management noted no surprising bottlenecks and expressed confidence in the validation process. The company is supply-constrained in the near term but expects to unlock capacity through the Aumovio partnership. No specific macroeconomic or competitive risks were named.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-29
Q2 2026 saw major commercial progress with the launch of Aurora Driver 2, new customer agreements, and a scaling plan to reach 200 driverless trucks by year-end. Revenue guidance remains $14–$16 million, with strong liquidity and a transition to a DaaS model in 2027.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-06
Q1 2026 saw revenue rise 10% sequentially to $1M, with record commercial miles and strong customer momentum. Over 200 driverless trucks are targeted by year-end, supporting a projected 400% revenue increase for 2026 and a shift to a capital-light model in 2027.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-11
Achieved record driverless miles and expanded addressable market, driving 25% sequential revenue growth in Q4 2025. 2026 revenue is projected to rise 400% year-over-year, with over 200 driverless trucks expected by year-end and break-even gross margin targeted.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-28
Q3 2025 saw record driverless miles, 12% sequential revenue growth, and major lane expansions. Hardware cost reductions, new customer partnerships, and strong liquidity position support scaling plans for 2026, with positive gross profit targeted by early 2027.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-30
Launched first U.S. driverless commercial trucking operations, logging 20,000+ safe miles and generating $1M in Q2 revenue. Expanded customer pilots, maintained strong liquidity, and advanced hardware cost reductions, with operations funded into Q2 2027.
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📊 Analysis Methodology

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Information Sources:
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