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AST SpaceMobile
$17.6B
Market Cap
P/E
PEG
-22.6%
ROCE
-30.1%
ROE
0.93
D/E
-405.7%
OPM
-53.2%
% from 52W High
53
α RS
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Currency-adjusted total returns for ASTS including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
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About

AST SpaceMobile, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and develops the constellation of BlueBird satellites in the United States.

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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 39.0K $3.2M 0.00% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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In-line quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Revenue
$31.5M
+>100% QoQ; YoY not disclosed
Revenue Backlog
$1.3B
Increased
Adjusted Operating Expenses
$119.1M
+30.6% QoQ
Pro Forma Cash & Restricted Cash
>$3.7B
Includes July convertible notes proceeds
What Went Right
  • Q2 revenue of $31.5M more than doubled Q1, driven by US government milestones and commercial gateway deliveries.
  • Revenue backlog increased to approximately $1.3B, including three new US government contract awards with funded near-term value over $100M.
  • Rakuten J-LEO preliminary award has total expected value up to ~$1B in non-dilutive, non-debt Japanese government capital.
  • Balance sheet fortified to over $3.7B pro forma cash, supported by $1.15B convertible notes at 1.625% due 2034.
  • BlueBirds 17 through 46 are in production; 13 satellites are in orbit with ~20,000 sq ft of combined aperture hardware.
What to Watch
  • Adjusted operating expenses climbed to $119.1M in Q2 from $91.2M in Q1, near the high end of guidance, and Q3 is expected to rise further.
  • Q2 capex was $610M, driven largely by launch payments; Q3 capex guidance is $350M-$425M, with quarterly variability expected to continue.
  • Management noted it is not betting on Blue Origin's return to flight in its numbers following the May anomaly, creating possible launch timing risk.
  • Full-year revenue is expected to be weighted toward Q4, and revenue recognition remains subject to satellite launches, gateway deliveries, and partner commercial activations.
Management Guidance
  • Full-year 2026 revenue reiterated at $150M-$200M, with sequential quarterly growth and Q4 weighting.
  • Q3 2026 adjusted operating expenses, excluding adjusted cost of revenues, expected between $105M and $115M.
  • Full-year 2026 adjusted OpEx, excluding adjusted cost of revenues, expected at approximately $400M.
  • Q3 2026 capital expenditures expected in the range of $350M-$425M.
  • Targeting approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027 and initial beta service in select markets later in 2026.
Investor Lens
The thesis looks stronger after this call: revenue is inflecting, backlog jumped to $1.3B, the US government pipeline is expanding with over $100M of new awards, and the ~$1B J-LEO award opens a large sovereign-constellation opportunity. The company also has a fortified >$3.7B cash position to fund manufacturing and launches. The main offsets are heavy operating expense growth and lumpy, elevated capex, which make 2027 margin and free-cash-flow visibility still dependent on launch cadence and commercial service ramp.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Q2 revenue more than doubles QoQ to $31.5M; backlog hits $1.3B
Revenue
Q2 revenue was $31.5M, more than double Q1, driven by US government service milestones and commercial gateway deliveries across 13 gateways to seven customers on five continents. Year-over-year growth was noted but not quantified.
Profitability
GAAP operating income, net income, and EPS were not disclosed on the call. Adjusted operating expenses, excluding adjusted cost of revenues, were $95.9M versus $79.8M in Q1, near the high end of the company's $85M-$95M guidance range.
Margins
No GAAP margin metrics were provided. Adjusted cost of revenues increased $11.9M quarter-over-quarter due to higher revenue, while adjusted OpEx excluding cost of revenues rose $16.1M sequentially on workforce expansion, facilities, professional fees, and AI investments.
Balance Sheet
Pro forma cash and restricted cash were over $3.7B as of June 30, 2026, including $1.15B gross proceeds from July 1.625% convertible notes due 2034, with a capped call raising the effective conversion price to $149.20. Q2 capex was approximately $610M, driven primarily by launch contracts and satellite materials/labor.
Key Risks
Management flagged launch provider risk, notably not relying on Blue Origin's return to flight in its plans, and noted capex and OpEx will remain elevated and lumpy. Revenue recognition also depends on satellite deployment, government milestone timing, MNO gateway purchases, and activation of commercial service.
Outlook
Management reiterated full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150M-$200M, with Q4 weighting, and guided Q3 adjusted OpEx of $105M-$115M and Q3 capex of $350M-$425M. The company expects to reach roughly 45 BlueBirds in orbit by early 2027 and to launch beta services with select MNO partners later in 2026.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-10
Q2 2026 revenue more than doubled sequentially, driven by government and commercial contracts, with a $1.3 billion backlog and over $3.7 billion in cash. Satellite production and global partnerships are scaling, with commercial service and significant government revenue expected to ramp in 2027.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-11
Q1 2026 saw strong operational progress, with $14.7M revenue, expanding MNO and government contracts, and a robust $3.5B cash position. The company targets 45 satellites in orbit by year-end, expects sequential revenue growth, and maintains 2026 guidance of $150–$200M.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-03-02
Achieved record 2025 revenue of $70.9M and raised $3.5B in capital, with strong commercial and government momentum. 2026 guidance targets $150M–$200M revenue and deployment of 45–60 satellites, with commercial service activation expected in the second half.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-10
Q3 2025 saw major commercial wins, over $1B in contracted revenue, and a strengthened cash position of $3.2B, fully funding a 100+ satellite constellation. Revenue ramped to $14.7M, with 2025 guidance of $50-75M and key launches on track.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-11
Q2 2025 saw major advances in satellite manufacturing, spectrum acquisition, and commercial partnerships, with over $1.5B in liquidity and guidance reaffirmed for $50M–$75M in H2 2025 revenue. The company is fully funded to reach 45–60 satellites for continuous service.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
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Information Sources:
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