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Algoma Steel Group Inc.
NASDAQ: ASTL Materials Metals 🔎 Screen
$507M
Market Cap
16.5
P/E
PEG
-47.7%
ROCE
-98.5%
ROE
1.87
D/E
-37.1%
OPM
-28.3%
% from 52W High
23
α RS
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for ASTL including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
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By Category
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About

Algoma Steel Group Inc. produces and sells steel products in Canada, the United States, and internationally.

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📈 Growth Pattern
📊 Quick Scorecard
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding ASTL
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 117.3K $484K 0.00% Mar 2026
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 73.9K $307K 0.00% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-30
Positive adjusted EBITDA was achieved, aided by insurance proceeds and a capacity utilization adjustment, despite lower shipment volumes and ongoing tariff headwinds. Plate sales hit a record, and the EAF transition nears completion, positioning for improved profitability as demand remains strong.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-13
Transition to electric arc furnace operations drove a challenging but strategically pivotal Q1 2026, with record plate sales, improved pricing, and a path to breakeven EBITDA by year-end. Liquidity remains strong, and strategic initiatives reinforce long-term growth.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-03-12
Q4 and full year 2025 saw significant losses due to U.S. tariffs, lower shipments, and operational transition, but the EAF ramp-up and strategic pivot to the Canadian market are progressing. Plate products remain a bright spot, and liquidity is strong for ongoing transformation.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-30
Q3 2025 saw a CAD 87.1M Adjusted EBITDA loss and a CAD 485.1M net loss, driven by U.S. tariffs, lower shipments, and a CAD 503M impairment. The company is accelerating its EAF transition, secured CAD 500M in government support, and expects significant working capital and tax inflows next year.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-30
Q2 2025 saw a net loss of CAD 110.6 million and adjusted EBITDA loss of CAD 32.4 million amid severe U.S. tariffs and weak steel markets. The company achieved first steel from its EAF project, maintained strong liquidity, and is actively seeking government support while focusing on domestic market opportunities.
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📊 Analysis Methodology

This comprehensive investment analysis was conducted using The Finmagine™ Stock Analysis & Ranking Methodology, a proprietary framework that systematically evaluates stocks across five critical dimensions: Financial Health, Growth Prospects, Competitive Positioning, Management Quality, and Valuation.

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

⚠️ Important Disclaimers — Please read without fail.

Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
The author and/or analyst may currently hold or have previously held positions in the securities discussed. Any such positions are not intended to influence the objectivity or independence of the analysis. This research is produced independently and is not sponsored, endorsed, or commissioned by any company or institution.

Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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