📈 Price History

Ratio Health

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— Average

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📊 Sector Averages

About

AGNC Investment Corp. provides private capital to housing market in the United States.

Key Ratios Snapshot

📈 Growth Pattern

⚡ Latest Quarter —

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📊 Quick Scorecard

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⭐ Superinvestors Holding AGNC

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Manager	Shares	Value	% of Fund	Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC	1.84M	$18.5M	0.03%	Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

🔍 Concall Decoded

🎙 Management Tone Tracker Mixed ↓ Deteriorating 4 quarters analysed

Q2 2025

Confident Specific

Management consistently used phrases like 'we continue to have a very positive outlook' and 'we believe the outlook actually improved in the second quarter', while providing specific data points (liquidity $6.4B, leverage 7.6x, net spread $0.38/sh) and citing exact policy statements from the President and Treasury Secretary to support their bullish case.

Q3 2025

Confident Specific

Management uses precise figures (10.6% economic return, 7.5x leverage, 77% hedge ratio) and specific catalysts (four factors supporting MBS outlook), avoiding hedging language.

Q4 2025

Confident Specific

Management used emphatic language such as 'exceptional year', 'outstanding performance', and 'clearly demonstrates the value'. They provided precise figures for economic returns (11.6% Q4, 22.7% full-year), total stock return (34.8%), and specific spread ranges (120-160 bps to swaps, 90-130 bps to Treasuries), indicating a high degree of confidence grounded in data.

Q1 2026 latest

Mixed

Management acknowledged negative 1.6% economic return and increased geopolitical risk but emphasized improved spread levels, stronger technicals, and attractive long-term value. They balanced caution on near-term volatility with confidence in their positioning and outlook.

Guidance Reliability Pending · <3Q data

Investor Lens

The investment thesis for AGNC is slightly stronger after this call. While near-term headwinds from geopolitical uncertainty and interest rate volatility persist, the improvement in MBS spreads to historically attractive levels, combined with supportive policy actions (GSE purchases, reduced regulatory burden, better repo funding), suggests a more favorable risk/reward. Management’s disciplined approach to liquidity and leverage provides downside protection. Key to watch next quarter: resolution of Middle East conflict, further administration actions on housing, and actual deployment of raised capital into specified pools. If spreads tighten materially, book value could recover rapidly, as seen in April (+6% MTD).

AI-generated concall tone analysis · Updated 2026-06-08 · Not investment advice

🎙 Management Tone Mixed ↓ Deteriorating 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →

📊 MIXED AGNC reports Q1 2026 comprehensive loss of $0.18 per share; net spread income at $0.42

Revenue & Profitability

For Q1 2026, AGNC reported a comprehensive loss of $0.18 per common share. Net spread and dollar roll income was $0.42 per common share, up $0.07 from the prior quarter. The net interest spread increased 25 basis points to approximately 2.06%. Tangible net book value per share decreased by $0.50 during the quarter, partially offset by $0.36 in dividends declared. As of late April, tangible book value was up about 6% for the month.

Outlook

Management noted that the outlook for Agency MBS improved in Q1 due to favorable supply-demand dynamics, with lower expected net supply ($50-$70 billion reduction) and strong money manager demand (bond fund inflows ~2x prior pace). However, heightened geopolitical and macroeconomic risks, particularly from the Middle East conflict, have increased interest rate volatility and uncertainty around Fed rate cuts. The administration's focus on housing affordability could lead to further supportive actions.

Growth Drivers

Key growth drivers include potential improvements in housing affordability via more aggressive GSE MBS purchases or increased GSE portfolio limits, which could tighten mortgage spreads. The improvement in TBA implied financing levels (now at or better than repo) provides a new opportunity for dollar roll income. Additionally, bank regulatory capital proposals with lower requirements for high-quality mortgage credit could reduce GSE footprint and benefit AGNC.

Balance Sheet & CapEx

Not discussed in this earnings call.

Margins

Net spread and dollar roll income margin increased to 2.06% in Q1 from 1.81% in Q4, driven by lower repo costs, more favorable TBA implied financing, and higher asset yields. Management indicated near-term run-rate net spread/dollar roll income is expected in the high $0.30s to low $0.40s per common share, implying a sustainable return on equity around 15-17%.

Key Risks

Risks flagged include uncertainty from the Middle East conflict causing higher interest rate volatility and inflationary pressures, which could delay Fed rate cuts and widen MBS spreads. Management also noted that the timing of capital raises and deployment can create period-to-period earnings variability. Prepayment risk remains a concern, mitigated by a portfolio with 77% favorable prepayment characteristics and a positive duration gap.

Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice

✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter

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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)

Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-21

Economic return reached 6.7% for Q2 2026, driven by strong agency MBS performance and disciplined risk management. Leverage and liquidity remained stable, while favorable supply-demand dynamics and regulatory developments support a positive outlook for H2.

Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-21

Q1 2026 saw a -1.6% economic return, but Agency MBS outperformed other fixed income assets amid volatility. Net spread and dollar roll income rose, liquidity remained strong, and capital was raised opportunistically at accretive levels.

Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-01-27

Delivered a 22.7% full-year economic return and 34.8% total stock return in 2025, with strong Q4 results and robust dividend coverage. Favorable market conditions, prudent leverage, and a diversified investor base support a positive outlook for 2026.

Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-21

Delivered a 10.6% economic return in Q3 2025, supported by strong Agency MBS performance, stable leverage, and robust liquidity. Outlook remains positive with anticipated Fed rate cuts, strong demand, and enhanced earnings from recent capital actions.

Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-22

Economic return was -1% for the quarter, with a comprehensive loss of $0.13 per share and stable leverage. Strong liquidity and accretive capital raises enabled disciplined asset deployment. Policy clarity and regulatory reforms support a favorable outlook for agency MBS.

📊 Analysis Methodology

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