📈 Price History

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About

agilon health, inc. provides healthcare services for seniors through primary care physicians in the communities of the United States.

Key Ratios Snapshot

📈 Growth Pattern

⚡ Latest Quarter —

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⭐ Superinvestors Holding AGL

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Manager	Shares	Value	% of Fund	Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC	149.0K	$1.2M	0.00%	Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

🔍 Concall Decoded

🎙 Management Tone Tracker Confident Specific ~ Volatile 4 quarters analysed

Q2 2025

Mixed

The tone is cautious and defensive as management admits underperformance ('clearly disappointed', 'execution was not adequate') and withdraws guidance, yet they also express confidence in the long-term model ('powerful model', 'strong foundation', 'confident in 2026'). They repeatedly emphasize decisive actions and improved execution ahead.

Q3 2025

Cautious

Management expresses cautious optimism, acknowledging current headwinds (lower RAF, exited market costs) but emphasizes forward-looking initiatives and 2026 tailwinds. Language like 'transformational year', 'we are optimistic', 'prudent approach' reflects a balanced but guarded tone.

Q4 2025

Confident Specific

Management uses specific operational metrics (e.g., 'full year cost trend 6.5%', '4.2 stars quality composite', 'net 40 bp BOI improvement') and clearly states 'expect material improvement year-over-year in medical margin and adjusted EBITDA'. They acknowledge 'not satisfied with 2025 financial performance' but repeatedly assert 'tangible progress' and provide detailed numerical guidance for 2026. The tone is direct and data-driven, not vague or evasive.

Q1 2026 latest

Confident Specific

Management used phrases like 'exceeded our expectations', 'strong first quarter performance', and 'increased expectations for full year 2026' to convey conviction. They backed it with specific drivers: improved data pipeline, clinical program outcomes, and disciplined payer contracting.

Guidance Reliability Pending · <3Q data

Investor Lens

The investment thesis is stronger after this call. The company delivered a clean beat on Q1 guidance and raised full-year expectations, demonstrating that operational improvements (data pipeline, clinical programs, disciplined contracting) are translating into financial results. The increased risk score estimate and new contract add credibility to the margin recovery story. However, the 7% cost trend assumption remains cautious, and Part D reserves pose uncertainty. The stock may re-rate higher if the cost trend materializes lower and 2027 payer contracting yields further margin expansion. Key metrics to watch next quarter: medical cost trend development for Q2, Part D reconciliation, and any early signs of 2027 contracting terms.

AI-generated concall tone analysis · Updated 2026-06-09 · Not investment advice

🎙 Management Tone Confident Specific ~ Volatile 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →

📊 MIXED agilon health Q1 2026: Revenue $1.42B, Adj. EBITDA $54M, guidance raised

Revenue & Profitability

Q1 2026 total revenue was approximately $1.42 billion, medical margin was $149 million, and Adjusted EBITDA was $54 million, exceeding guidance. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised: revenue midpoint ~$5.7 billion, medical margin ~$375 million, and Adjusted EBITDA ~$25 million. The company reported a cost trend of 7.4% for the quarter and expects full-year net cost trend of 7%.

Outlook

Management noted that CMS continues to support full-risk value-based care models. They see minimal exposure to unlinked chart reviews and believe they can offset the V28 normalization factor as they have in prior years. The 2027 final rate notice effective growth rate of 5.33% is seen as a starting point, with additional opportunities from burden of illness, quality, and contracting efforts.

Growth Drivers

Key growth drivers include scaling clinical programs (CHF, COPD, dementia) across the network, disciplined payer contracting focused on profitability, and improving data pipeline and AI capabilities to enhance revenue and cost management. In-market growth with existing physician partners is a priority; the company signed a new full-risk contract with a new payer in an existing market in Q1 2026.

Balance Sheet & CapEx

Not discussed in this earnings call.

Margins

Medical margin improved to $149 million in Q1 2026 from $128 million in Q1 2025, driven by higher revenue and lower medical expenses. Adjusted EBITDA was $54 million versus $21 million in the prior year, benefiting from higher medical margin, OpEx discipline, and strong ACO REACH performance. The company expects full-year 2026 medical margin of ~$375 million and Adjusted EBITDA of ~$25 million.

Key Risks

Management flagged limited paid claims visibility early in the year, leading to conservative cost trend assumptions. Part D costs for 2025 remain uncertain, with final reconciliation expected in Q3 2026. The company also noted exposure to Medicare Advantage membership decline from market exits and payer contract discipline, which reduced membership year-over-year.

Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice

✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter

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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)

Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-05

Second quarter results exceeded guidance, driven by improved risk adjustment, disciplined cost management, and operational execution. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised, with strong liquidity and continued investment in AI and clinical pathways supporting future growth.

Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-06

First quarter results exceeded expectations, driven by operational discipline, improved data, and AI integration. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised, with strong clinical program expansion and continued focus on cost management and payer contracting.

Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-25

2025 saw foundational transformation, cost discipline, and strategic contract exits, resulting in improved data analytics and quality initiatives. 2026 guidance targets breakeven EBITDA, $5.5B revenue, and $300M–$350M medical margin, with continued focus on cost control and value-based care.

Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-04

Q3 2025 saw revenue of $1.44B and adjusted EBITDA of -$91M, with full-year guidance reflecting ongoing headwinds from risk adjustment and exited markets. Strategic initiatives, cost discipline, and enhanced data analytics are expected to drive improved performance and margins in 2026.

Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-04

Leadership transition and strategic initiatives mark a challenging Q2, with revenue and membership declines, negative margins, and withdrawn 2025 guidance. Enhanced data and operational changes aim to drive profitability and growth in 2026.

📊 Analysis Methodology

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Investment Risk:
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