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ADT Inc.
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$7.3B
Market Cap
9.4
P/E
0.84
PEG
11.0%
ROCE
11.2%
ROE
2.24
D/E
25.4%
OPM
-0.1%
% from 52W High
82
α RS
🔍 ADT is showing a multi-screen setup because it matches 4 of 39 tracked screener presets, Sector RRG has Industrials in the Improving quadrant with the trail still strengthening, and RS Rating is 82. The main caution: the deleveraging preset's Backtest win rate is only 39%. Net: Mixed signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RRG RS Rating Backtest
Sources
Conviction 4/39 · Industrials in Improving quadrant · RS Rating 82 · Backtest win rate 39%
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for ADT including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
— Excellent
— Good
— Average
— Poor
By Category
📊 Peer Medians
About

ADT Inc. provides security, interactive, and smart home solutions in the United States. The company offers burglar and life safety alarms, smart security cameras, smart home automation systems, and video surveillance systems to detect intrusion; control access; sense movement, smoke, fire, carbon monoxide, leaks, temperature, and other environmental conditions and hazards; and address personal medical emergencies, such as injuries or unanticipated falls. It also provides routine maintenance and installation services for upgraded or additional equipment; and personal emergency response system products and services to sustain independent living, detect when a fall occurs, and provide protection while on the go with geolocation capability. In addition, the company offers ADT+ app, an interactive technology platform; Trusted Neighbor, which allows customers to grant access to their homes through homeowner-authorized credentials and the ADT+ app; automation and smart home solutions, which allow for the remote monitoring and managing of spaces through smartphone applications, customized web portals, and touchscreen panels; and professionally installed and DIY security and smart home solutions. Further, it operates monitoring centers that provide professional and outsourced monitoring services; and field and call centers. The company sells its products under the ADT, ADT Pulse, and ADT+ brands. It serves the residential and small business security and automation markets comprising owners and renters of single-family homes, apartments, and small businesses owners through customer referrals, door-to-door activities, lead generation partners, retail and e-commerce channels, network of field sales and service offices, third-party independent dealers, and authorized dealers. The company was formerly known as Prime Security Services Parent, Inc. and changed its name to ADT Inc. in September 2017. ADT Inc. was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📈 Growth Pattern
📊 Quick Scorecard
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 1.35M $8.9M 0.01% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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📊 MIXED ADT Q1 2026: Adjusted free cash flow $414M, EPS $0.23 up 10%, RMR $359M
Revenue & Profitability
Total revenue was $1.3 billion, up 1% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA rose 2% to $674 million, and adjusted EPS grew 10% to $0.23. Adjusted free cash flow (including swaps) reached $414 million, up $187 million (over 80%) from the prior year, driven by lower cash interest, working capital timing, and profitability. Installation revenue was $198 million, up 7%. The company returned $161 million to shareholders via share repurchases and had net debt of $7.3 billion with leverage of 2.7x adjusted EBITDA.
Outlook
Management expects full-year 2026 adjusted free cash flow growth of ~20%, with revenue and adjusted EPS approximately flat year-over-year. Second-quarter revenue and EPS are expected to be slightly lower sequentially due to higher advertising spending (e.g., ADT Blue launch) and other investments. Industry demand drivers include expansion into DIY-oriented customers (incremental TAM) and continued adoption of smart home security. Tariffs are incorporated as a headwind but are expected to be offset by AI-driven efficiency and cost discipline.
Growth Drivers
Key growth levers include expanding the ADT+ platform (30% of new additions in Q1, expected to reach over two-thirds after dealer transition), launching Blue by ADT for DIY/e-tail channels (own website in late May, Amazon over summer), and integrating Origin AI's sensing technology into core offerings. The company also sees opportunity in bulk account purchases and tuck-in M&A, though no bulk deals closed in Q1. AI improvements in marketing and sales (outbound lead conversion, pre-qualification) aim to drive more efficient subscriber acquisition.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Not discussed in this earnings call.
Margins
Adjusted EBITDA margin improved, with EBITDA up 2% on roughly flat revenue. AI virtual agents and automation are structurally lowering costs (chat containment rose to 60% by end-April, call containment to 25%). Management is targeting a revenue payback period of 2.0x or lower (from 2.3 years currently) through more efficient acquisition channels. Cost of debt is ~4.3% after recent refinancings. Higher credit loss allowances were partially offset by a favorable legal settlement recovery.
Key Risks
Risks highlighted include higher non-pay cancellations (slightly up year-over-year) leading to an increased allowance for credit losses. The company intentionally reduced reliance on high-cost channels and tightened credit standards, which may temporarily depress subscriber additions. Tariffs are a headwind, but management expects to offset them through AI-driven cost savings. Workforce transition and dependence on dealer network performance (one large dealer underperformed in Q1) were also noted. Leverage is manageable at 2.7x, but future acquisition or share repurchase activity could increase debt.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-30
Q2 2026 saw strong cash generation, 2% revenue growth, and robust capital returns, with adjusted free cash flow up 48% year-over-year. ADT Blu launched to target DIY customers, while AI initiatives improved efficiency and customer satisfaction. Full-year outlook was modestly raised.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-30
Strong Q1 results with adjusted free cash flow up 80% and EPS up 10% year-over-year. Strategic investments in AI, product innovation, and DIY offerings are expected to drive long-term growth, while 2026 guidance calls for flat revenue and EPS with robust cash generation.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-03-02
Solid 2025 results with 5% revenue and 19% EPS growth, strong cash generation, and $800M returned to shareholders. 2026 will be a transition year with flat revenue/EPS, major investments in AI, DIY, and new products, and a $1.5B share repurchase plan.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-04
Q3 2025 saw 4% revenue growth, strong cash flow, and 15% EPS growth year-over-year. Guidance for 2025 was tightened, with confidence in meeting targets despite macro headwinds. AI and product innovation, capital returns, and debt refinancing were key highlights.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-24
Strong Q2 results with 7% revenue growth, record recurring revenue, and robust cash flow. Guidance reaffirmed and EPS outlook raised, supported by efficient capital structure and successful bulk acquisitions.
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📊 Analysis Methodology

This comprehensive investment analysis was conducted using The Finmagine™ Stock Analysis & Ranking Methodology, a proprietary framework that systematically evaluates stocks across five critical dimensions: Financial Health, Growth Prospects, Competitive Positioning, Management Quality, and Valuation.

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
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Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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