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Tesla, Inc.
S&P 500 Nasdaq 100
$1.31T
Market Cap
416.4
P/E
6.85
PEG
4.4%
ROCE
4.9%
ROE
0.08
D/E
4.6%
OPM
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for TSLA including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
Poor
By Category
Shareholding
About

Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📊 Sector Averages
📈 Growth Pattern
📊 Quick Scorecard
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding TSLA
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Cathie Wood ARK Investment Management 2.83M $1.1B 8.18% Mar 2026
Andreas Halvorsen Viking Global Investors 2.49M $927.0M 2.59% Mar 2026
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 211.3K $78.5M 0.12% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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3-Statement Financial Model
Bear / Base / Bull projections · DCF fair value · Reverse-DCF
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🎙 Management Tone Mixed → Stable 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
Mixed quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q1 2026
Auto Margin (ex-credits)
19.2%
+1.3pp QoQ
Energy Gross Margin
39.5%+
Record high (incl. one-time benefits)
Free Cash Flow
$1.4B
Positive, but expect negative for rest of 2026
FSD Paid Customers
1.3M
Growth driven by subscriptions
What Went Right
  • Auto margins improved to 19.2% (ex-credits) despite tariff and interest rate headwinds.
  • Record Q1 order backlog in over two years, with EMEA deliveries up >150% QoQ in France and Germany.
  • Robotaxi expanded to Dallas and Houston with zero safety incidents to date.
What to Watch
  • Energy storage deployments fell 38% sequentially to 8.8 GWh.
  • Net income hurt by $250M+ in one-time tariff benefits turning to headwinds and Bitcoin mark-to-market losses (down 22%).
  • CapEx guidance of $25B+ for 2026 will drive negative free cash flow for the remainder of the year.
Management Guidance
  • 2026 capital expenditures expected to exceed $25 billion.
  • Free cash flow expected to be negative for the rest of 2026 due to heavy investment phase.
  • FSD approvals expected: EU-wide in Q2 (after Netherlands approval), China by Q3.
  • Optimus production start in late July/August; initial ramp will be slow.
  • Unsupervised FSD to customer cars possibly in Q4 2026.
  • Energy storage deployments in 2026 expected to be higher than 2025.
Investor Lens
The thesis is modestly stronger after this call. Auto margin improvement and record order backlog signal healthy demand even as interest rates and tariffs bite. However, the massive CapEx increase ($25B+) and expected negative free cash flow will test investor patience, especially as new products (Cybercab, Semi, Optimus) face slow production ramps. FSD adoption and Robotaxi expansion are positive but near-term revenue impact remains low.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📊 MIXED Mixed Q1: margins improve, but heavy investment weighs.
Revenue
Not discussed.
Profitability
Net income was impacted by mark-to-market losses on Bitcoin holdings (down 22% QoQ) and unfavorable FX from intercompany borrowings. Auto margins (ex-credits) improved sequentially to 19.2% from 17.9%, helped by one-time warranty write-downs of ~$230M and tariff relief.
Margins
Auto margin ex-credits rose to 19.2% (up 1.3pp QoQ). Energy gross margins hit a record 39.5%+, boosted by >$250M in tariff reversals. Services margin improved to 9.2% from 8.8%.
Balance Sheet
Free cash flow ended the quarter at just over $1.4 billion. CapEx guidance for 2026 is over $25 billion, leading to expected negative free cash flow for the rest of the year.
Key Risks
Battery pack capacity remains the biggest production limiter. Energy storage gross margins expected to compress from here due to tariffs and competition. Hardware 3 cars cannot achieve unsupervised FSD, requiring costly retrofits or trade-ins.
Outlook
Management expects 2026 energy storage deployments to be higher than 2025. New product ramps (Cybercab, Semi, Optimus) will follow S-curves with slow initial production.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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📊 Analysis Methodology

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

⚠️ Important Disclaimers — Please read without fail.

Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
The author and/or analyst may currently hold or have previously held positions in the securities discussed. Any such positions are not intended to influence the objectivity or independence of the analysis. This research is produced independently and is not sponsored, endorsed, or commissioned by any company or institution.

Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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