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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
S&P 500 Nasdaq 100
$51.9B
Market Cap
32.4
P/E
2.88
PEG
21.0%
ROCE
23.9%
ROE
0.00
D/E
24.8%
OPM
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Currency-adjusted total returns for ODFL including FX impact
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Ratio Health
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By Category
Shareholding
About

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload motor carrier in the United States and North America.

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3-Statement Financial Model
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🎙 Management Tone Mixed → Stable 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
Mixed quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q1 2026
Revenue
$1.334B
-2.9% YoY
Operating Income
$317.3M
-6.1% YoY
Operating Margin
23.8%
-0.8pp YoY
Net Income
$238.3M
-6.4% YoY
What Went Right
  • LTL volumes accelerated with strong sequential tonnage growth in February (+4.9%) and March (+4.6%).
  • Best-in-class service maintained with 99% on-time and claims ratio below 0.1%.
  • LTL revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel increased 4.4% YoY, reflecting disciplined yield management.
What to Watch
  • Total revenue decreased 2.9% YoY due to a 7.7% decline in LTL tons per day.
  • Operating ratio worsened 80 basis points to 76.2% as overhead costs deleveraged.
  • April month-to-date LTL tons per day down 6.5% YoY, suggesting tempered near-term demand.
Management Guidance
  • Expect Q2 operating ratio to improve sequentially by 300–350 basis points, in line with 10-year average.
  • Effective tax rate for Q2 2026 expected to be approximately 25.0%.
  • Full-year 2026 capital expenditures planned at $265 million.
Investor Lens
The thesis remains largely intact: Old Dominion's service leadership and disciplined pricing allowed it to hold yields and capture share even amid a volume downturn. Management's confidence in sequential recovery (Q2 OR improvement of 300–350bps) and the return of truckload-to-LTL conversion suggest the cycle is turning. However, April's weaker tonnage and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty keep caution warranted. Investors should monitor whether the stronger February/March trend proves sustainable through Q2.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📊 MIXED Mixed quarter with revenue down but sequential volume momentum building.
Revenue
Total revenue was $1.334 billion, down 2.9% YoY. LTL services revenue declined 2.9% to $1.322 billion, driven by a 7.7% drop in LTL tons per day, partially offset by a 5.7% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight (excluding fuel: +4.4%). Other services revenue fell 8.7% to $12.8 million.
Profitability
Net income decreased 6.4% to $238.3 million, with diluted EPS of $1.14 (down 4.2% from $1.19). Operating income was $317.3 million, down 6.1% YoY.
Margins
Operating ratio increased 80 bps to 76.2%, meaning margin contracted. Overhead costs (general supplies + depreciation) rose as a percent of revenue, while direct operating costs improved due to focus on efficiency and revenue quality. Management noted Q2 sequential OR improvement of 300–350 bps is typical.
Balance Sheet
Cash from operations was $373.6 million in Q1. CapEx totaled $62.6 million, with full-year 2026 plan of $265 million. The company spent $88.1 million on share repurchases and $60.5 million on dividends. Cash and equivalents stood at $288.1 million at quarter end.
Key Risks
Management highlighted geopolitical uncertainty and potential for demand pullback. Fuel surcharge volatility could impact revenue comparability. Fringe benefit costs are expected to increase in Q2 vs Q1.
Outlook
For Q2, Old Dominion expects sequential OR improvement of 300–350 bps (in line with 10-year average), assuming volumes continue to improve. April month-to-date revenue per day is up ~7% YoY, but LTL tons per day are down ~6.5%.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

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