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Natera, Inc.
$29.1B
Market Cap
P/E
PEG
-32.6%
ROCE
-14.3%
ROE
0.12
D/E
-13.4%
OPM
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Currency-adjusted total returns for NTRA including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
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By Category
Shareholding
About

Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, engages in the development and commercialization of molecular testing services worldwide.

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⭐ Superinvestors Holding NTRA
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Stan Druckenmiller Duquesne Family Office 3.06M $612.7M 18.14% Mar 2026
Cathie Wood ARK Investment Management 684.3K $136.8M 1.06% Mar 2026
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 444.2K $88.8M 0.11% Mar 2026
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 197.5K $39.5M 0.06% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q1 2026
Revenue
$696.6M
+38.8% YoY
Gross Margin
64.7%
+1.6pp YoY
Operating Loss
$93.5M
+18.1% YoY
Net Loss
$85.1M
+27.2% YoY
What Went Right
  • First quarter with over 1 million tests processed (1,013,600), led by women's health and oncology records.
  • Oncology units grew 55% YoY to ~249,000, with record sequential increase of ~24,000 units.
  • Signatera ASP reached ~$1,250, another high, contributing to revenue growth above volume.
What to Watch
  • Transient gross margin headwind of ~2pp from higher work-in-progress at quarter end due to rapid volume surge.
  • DSO increased temporarily as bundled pricing updates delayed cash collections for Signatera.
  • R&D guidance raised by $50M to pull forward clinical trials, pressuring near-term profitability.
Management Guidance
  • FY2026 revenue raised to $2.74B - $2.82B (midpoint +$120M vs prior).
  • FY2026 gross margin guidance raised to 64% - 66% (midpoint 65%).
  • SG&A expected $1.125B - $1.225B; R&D expected $800M - $900M; net cash inflow positive.
Investor Lens
The call strengthens the bull case significantly. Record volumes and accelerating ASP momentum drove a $120M revenue guide raise, while gross margin expansion remains on track despite near-term noise. Key catalysts—FIND-ECD enrollment completion in Q3 2026, Japan launch, and additional Medicare coverage decisions—provide clear upside optionality. Management’s confidence in achieving a $2,000 Signatera ASP implies over $750M in incremental gross profit at current volumes. The thesis is stronger after this quarter.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Strong beat with record 1M tests, raised guidance.
Revenue
Total revenue was $696.6M, up 38.8% YoY, driven by 18.5% volume growth and higher ASPs across segments. Women's health saw 63,000 quarter-over-quarter unit growth (excluding most Fetal Focus orders), while oncology hit ~249,000 units (+55% YoY).
Profitability
Net loss widened to $85.1M (or $0.60 per share) from $66.9M in Q1 2025, due to higher R&D and SG&A spending. Operating loss was $93.5M vs $79.2M a year ago. However, the company generated positive cash inflow of $11.8M in the quarter.
Margins
Gross margin improved to 64.7% from 63.1% YoY, aided by higher ASPs and stable unit COGS. Management noted a temporary ~2pp headwind from work-in-progress build; normalized margins would have been ~66.7%. Full-year gross margin guidance was raised to 64%-66%.
Balance Sheet
Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash were $1,087.9M at March 31, 2026, slightly up from $1,076.1M at year-end 2025. Debt outstanding was $80.3M on a UBS credit line. DSO increased temporarily due to bundled pricing updates, but collections normalized in April.
Key Risks
Management flagged weather-related volume disruption in January, though the impact was not quantified. The rapid volume ramp caused a temporary increase in work-in-progress, affecting reported gross margins. Additionally, the Signatera ASP trajectory depends on continued coverage expansion from Medicare Advantage plans and new indications.
Outlook
For FY2026, revenue is now expected between $2.74B and $2.82B, with gross margin of 64%-66%. R&D is guided to $800M-$900M, up $50M to accelerate trial enrollment. Management expects positive net cash inflow for the year, with quarterly oncology volume growth in line with trailing twelve-month averages.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
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Information Sources:
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