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NRG Energy, Inc.
NYSE: NRG Utilities Energy 🔎 Screen
S&P 500
$24.5B
Market Cap
39.7
P/E
0.26
PEG
7.2%
ROCE
41.5%
ROE
9.85
D/E
6.0%
OPM
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for NRG including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
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Good
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By Category
Shareholding
About

NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada.

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⭐ Superinvestors Holding NRG
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
David Tepper Appaloosa LP 1.73M $253.5M 4.27% Mar 2026
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 274.8K $40.2M 0.05% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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In-line quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q1 2026
Adjusted EBITDA
$1.08B
-4% YoY
Adjusted Net Income
$308M
-42% YoY
Adjusted EPS
$1.49
-44% YoY
GAAP Net Income
$125M
-83% YoY
What Went Right
  • Fleet achieved 94% in-the-money availability in ERCOT during Winter Storm Fern.
  • LS Power portfolio integration ahead of plan, adding immediate earnings contribution.
  • Texas Energy Fund project T.H. Wharton on track for May 2026 COD, on time and on budget.
What to Watch
  • Mild Texas weather caused 30% fewer heating degree days, pressuring retail volumes and power prices.
  • Winter Storm Fern increased East supply costs before LS Power closure, compressing margins.
  • Large load data center deals still complex; regulatory and infrastructure hurdles remain in both ERCOT and PJM.
Management Guidance
  • Reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $5.325B - $5.825B.
  • Reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance of $7.90 - $9.90.
  • Planned $1.0B in share repurchases and ~$407M in dividends for 2026.
Investor Lens
The quarter was soft due to mild weather and storm timing, but management reaffirmed all guidance and expressed high confidence in full-year delivery. The thesis is strengthening: the company has a unique platform combining retail, generation, demand response, and development capability. With 2 GW of potential uprates in PJM, 1.5 GW of TEF projects nearing completion, and active data center discussions, NRG is well positioned to capture multi-year demand growth. The disciplined capital allocation and deleveraging progress further support shareholder returns.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📊 IN-LINE In-line quarter with reaffirmed guidance; key numbers hold.
Revenue
Not explicitly reported in the call. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.08B, down 4% YoY from $1.126B, driven by mild Texas weather and storm impacts in the East partially offset by LS Power contribution.
Profitability
GAAP Net Income was $125M, down 83% YoY from $750M, primarily due to unrealized mark-to-market losses on hedges and higher interest/depreciation from LS Power. Adjusted Net Income was $308M, down 42% YoY. Adjusted EPS was $1.49, down 44%.
Margins
Operating margin not explicitly given. Adjusted EBITDA margin implied by $1.08B on unreported revenue. Cost drivers: higher East supply costs during Winter Storm Fern and increased interest and D&A from acquisition. Management emphasized fleet reliability and LT growth investments.
Balance Sheet
Free cash flow before growth investments was negative $66M in Q1, down from positive $293M YoY due to working capital timing. Subsequent to quarter end, NRG closed $3.5B refinancing, repaying $1.5B Lightning notes and reducing revolver, creating >$10M annual interest savings. Net leverage target remains 3.0x.
Key Risks
Mild weather and low volatility in Texas; Winter Storm Fern caused supply cost headwinds before LS Power assets were acquired; large load deal timelines still uncertain due to infrastructure and interconnection complexity.
Outlook
Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed, with summer weather and LS Power integration expected to drive stronger performance in remaining quarters. Management sees upside from data center deals and PJM uprates, but base plan does not rely on them.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
The author and/or analyst may currently hold or have previously held positions in the securities discussed. Any such positions are not intended to influence the objectivity or independence of the analysis. This research is produced independently and is not sponsored, endorsed, or commissioned by any company or institution.

Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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