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NRG Energy, Inc.
NYSE: NRG Utilities Energy 🔎 Screen
S&P 500
$21.8B
Market Cap
39.7
P/E
0.92
PEG
10.8%
ROCE
41.5%
ROE
9.89
D/E
6.0%
OPM
-42.0%
% from 52W High
17
α RS
🔍 NRG is showing a high-conviction setup because it matches 3 of 39 tracked screener presets and magic_formula preset's Backtest win rate is 51.1% over 90 days. Net: Partial signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction Backtest
Sources
Conviction 3/39 · Backtest win rate 51.1%
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for NRG including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
Poor
By Category
📊 Sector Averages
About

NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy and home services company in the United States and Canada. It operates through the Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities segments. The company offers retail electricity, energy management, demand response and virtual power plant programs, carbon offsets, smart home security, and automation services. It also offers system power, distributed and backup generation, energy storage, energy management, renewable and low-carbon products, and carbon management solutions for large business and commercial customers; a cloud-based home platform, including hardware, software, sales, installation, customer service, technical support, and professional monitoring solutions; and generation portfolio includes fossil fuel and renewable generation assets diversified by fuel type and dispatch level, with ongoing development of new natural gas and renewable projects. In addition, the company trades in power, natural gas, and related products; environmental products; weather products; and financial products, including forwards, futures, options, and swaps. It offers its products and services under the NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint. It serves residential, commercial, government, industrial, data center, and wholesale customers. NRG Energy, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding NRG
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
David Tepper Appaloosa LP 1.73M $253.5M 4.27% Mar 2026
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 274.8K $40.2M 0.05% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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In-line quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Adjusted EBITDA
$1.217B
+34% YoY
Adjusted Net Income
$315M
-7% YoY
GAAP Net Income
$506M
+$610M YoY
Adjusted EPS
$1.49
-14% YoY
What Went Right
  • Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose 34% YoY to $1.217B, with FCFbG up $111M to $1.025B.
  • Advanced first 1.2GW BYOP project with a leading hyperscaler; expected $500M annual EBITDA at full run-rate and build multiple of ~6x.
  • Smart Home customers grew 8% YoY to 2.45M and segment EBITDA rose $42M.
What to Watch
  • Texas adjusted EBITDA fell $131M YoY as ERCOT Houston around-the-clock prices averaged $33/MWh vs the $52 planning assumption.
  • Virginia's return to RGGI adds an estimated $70M of incremental 2026 cost on the acquired LS Power fleet, not in original underwriting.
  • First-half results are tracking below the midpoint of guidance; LS Power portfolio carries pre-existing below-market hedges limiting near-term PJM upside.
  • BYOP project FID remains subject to final negotiations, land-related matters, internal approvals and customary conditions.
Management Guidance
  • Reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $5.325B-$5.825B.
  • Reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $7.90-$9.90.
  • Reaffirmed FY2026 FCFbG guidance of $2.800B-$3.300B and adjusted net income of $1.685B-$2.115B.
  • Maintained at least $1B annual share repurchases and ~$407M dividends; BYOP project COD targeted for late 2029.
Investor Lens
The thesis is stronger after this call: NRG converted its secured turbine/EPC capacity into a contracted 1.2GW BYOP project with an investment-grade hyperscaler, adding roughly $500M of run-rate EBITDA with 95% of project FCF backed by capacity payments. This structure reduces commodity exposure and creates a scalable template, while the at-least-$1B annual buyback is preserved. Near-term pressure remains from soft ERCOT prices, RGGI costs and under-market hedges, and final FID is not yet complete. Overall, the deal materially upgrades future cash-flow quality and growth visibility without derailing the base business.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📊 MIXED Q2 EBITDA +34% to $1.2B; BYOP 1.2GW secured
Revenue
Total revenue was not disclosed on the call. Adjusted EBITDA rose 34% YoY to $1.217B, helped by the LS Power portfolio, higher PJM capacity values and Smart Home growth; East segment EBITDA climbed $370M while Texas fell $131M.
Profitability
GAAP net income was $506M versus a $104M loss a year ago. Adjusted net income fell $24M to $315M and adjusted EPS declined to $1.49 from $1.73, driven by acquisition-related interest and D&A; FCFbG rose $111M to $1.025B.
Margins
Operating margin was not explicitly disclosed. Margin pressure came from lower ERCOT prices and higher retail supply costs, while RGGI added roughly $70M of 2026 cost; PJM upside was partly capped by pre-existing hedges.
Balance Sheet
Q2 cash from operations was $1.117B and FCFbG was $1.025B. The 1.2GW project requires $3.2B of total investment, with $0.8B expected by end-2026, funded via operating cash flow and lower liability management; long-term leverage target remains 3x, with deleveraging now expected by 2029.
Key Risks
ERCOT prices remain soft at $33/MWh Houston RTC versus the $52 underwriting assumption. RGGI re-entry adds $70M of 2026 cost, and BYOP FID still requires land, internal approvals and other customary conditions.
Outlook
FY2026 guidance was reaffirmed across adjusted EBITDA, EPS, FCFbG and adjusted net income; management sees first-half tracking below the midpoint but still expects to deliver within ranges. The 1.2GW BYOP plant is targeted to reach COD in late 2029 with $500M annual EBITDA and $375M annual FCFbG at full run-rate.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-04
Announced a 1.2 GW Texas data center project with a global hyperscaler, structured for long-term contracted cash flows and potential expansion. Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose 34% year-over-year, guidance reaffirmed, and capital allocation priorities maintained.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-05-06
Q1 2026 saw strong operational execution despite mild Texas weather and higher supply costs in the East, with reaffirmed full-year guidance and robust capital allocation. Integration of LS Power assets is on track, and the company is positioned to benefit from surging power demand, especially from AI and data centers.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-24
Record 2025 results exceeded guidance, driven by strong execution, LS Power integration, and robust demand growth. 2026 guidance and long-term targets reaffirmed, with at least 14% annual EPS and cash flow growth projected through 2030. Capital returns and disciplined investment remain priorities.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-11-06
Raised 2025 guidance and introduced 2026 outlook, driven by record financial results and strong growth in energy and smart home segments. Data center agreements and pipeline expanded, while the LS Power acquisition remains on track for Q1 2026 close.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-08-06
Second quarter and first half 2025 results were strong, with adjusted EPS and EBITDA up significantly year-over-year. Major data center agreements, asset acquisitions, and rapid VPP adoption support a positive outlook, with guidance reaffirmed at the high end of ranges.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
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