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FedEx Corporation
S&P 500
$81.5B
Market Cap
13.0
P/E
1.22
PEG
5.4%
ROCE
14.7%
ROE
1.19
D/E
5.9%
OPM
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for FDX including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
Excellent
Good
Average
Poor
By Category
Shareholding
About

FedEx Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally.

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📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding FDX
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Andreas Halvorsen Viking Global Investors 1.93M $688.2M 1.93% Mar 2026
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 380.6K $135.6M 0.17% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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3-Statement Financial Model
Bear / Base / Bull projections · DCF fair value · Reverse-DCF
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🎙 Management Tone Mixed → Stable 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q3 2026
Revenue
$24.0B
+8% YoY
Operating Income
$1.62B
+7% YoY
Operating Margin
6.7%
-0.1pp YoY
Net Income
$1.26B
+16% YoY
What Went Right
  • FEC revenue grew 10% and adjusted operating margin expanded 50bps for the 6th consecutive quarter.
  • U.S. domestic package volume rose 5% with yield up 5%, driving highest quarterly domestic revenue since FY2022.
  • Achieved over $1B in structural cost savings; now expect to exceed target for FY2026.
  • Raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance by $1.80 at the midpoint reflecting strong momentum.
What to Watch
  • MD-11 grounding created $120M headwind in Q3 and up to $55M expected in Q4.
  • FedEx Freight adjusted operating income fell $127M YoY, pressured by LTL softness and $60M in spin costs.
  • Middle East conflict remains a modest headwind; management assumes no material escalation in Q4 outlook.
  • Sequential step-up in Q4 earnings expected to be smaller due to peak strength shifting profitability pattern.
Management Guidance
  • Full-year FY2026 revenue growth now 6.0%-6.5% (prior 5%-6%).
  • Full-year adjusted EPS raised to $19.30-$20.10 from $17.80-$19.00.
  • Q4 FEC revenue growth forecast ~8% at midpoint; Freight revenue flat to down slightly.
  • CapEx now expected no more than $4.1B, down from $4.5B prior.
Investor Lens
The thesis is stronger after this call. FEC is delivering sustained margin expansion and profitable volume growth, while cost transformation is exceeding targets. Freight remains a drag due to LTL weakness and separation costs, but the spin-off is on track and cash flow generation is improving. The raised guidance and disciplined CapEx outlook support the medium-term free cash flow targets, though geopolitical and freight headwinds require monitoring.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Strong Q3 beats, FEC drives margin expansion and guidance raised.
Revenue
Q3 consolidated revenue was $24.0B, up 8% YoY. FEC revenue grew 10%, driven by 10% domestic package growth and 8% international export package growth. FedEx Freight revenue declined 5% due to lower LTL volumes.
Profitability
Adjusted net income was $1.26B, up 16% YoY, and adjusted diluted EPS of $5.25 increased 16% YoY. The quarter included a $0.41 per share one-time tax benefit from Brazil restructuring.
Margins
Consolidated adjusted operating margin was 6.7%, down 10bps YoY due to mix and headwinds. FEC adjusted operating margin expanded 50bps to 8.5% (implied from commentary). Freight margins compressed due to volume drop and $60M in spin-related costs.
Balance Sheet
CapEx for FY2026 is now expected at no more than $4.1B, down from $4.5B, supporting improved free cash flow. Adjusted free cash flow expectation raised to $3.8B (prior $3.8B? Actually they said 'upside' to $3.8B). Freight completed $3.7B debt issuance in January; proceeds to be dividend to FedEx in connection with spin.
Key Risks
Management flagged continued LTL industry softness pressuring Freight volumes and margins. The MD-11 grounding will persist through Q4 with up to $55M headwind. Global trade policy changes and Middle East conflict are modest headwinds but being managed with network adjustments and surcharges.
Outlook
Full-year FY2026 adjusted EPS raised to $19.30-$20.10. Q4 revenue growth expected at 6%-7.5% consolidated, with FEC growing ~8% and Freight flat to down slightly. The sequential earnings step-up from Q3 to Q4 will be smaller due to peak shift and one-time items.
Generated by AI · Q3 2026 results · Not investment advice
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📊 Analysis Methodology

This comprehensive investment analysis was conducted using The Finmagine™ Stock Analysis & Ranking Methodology, a proprietary framework that systematically evaluates stocks across five critical dimensions: Financial Health, Growth Prospects, Competitive Positioning, Management Quality, and Valuation.

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

⚠️ Important Disclaimers — Please read without fail.

Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
The author and/or analyst may currently hold or have previously held positions in the securities discussed. Any such positions are not intended to influence the objectivity or independence of the analysis. This research is produced independently and is not sponsored, endorsed, or commissioned by any company or institution.

Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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