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Alcoa
NYSE: AA Materials Metals 🔎 Screen
$16.6B
Market Cap
12.2
P/E
1.24
PEG
1.5%
ROCE
19.8%
ROE
0.40
D/E
1.3%
OPM
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Currency-adjusted total returns for AA including FX impact
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Ratio Health
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About

Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally.

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⭐ Superinvestors Holding AA
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Stan Druckenmiller Duquesne Family Office 1.49M $99.1M 2.93% Mar 2026
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 598.7K $39.7M 0.06% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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3-Statement Financial Model
Bear / Base / Bull projections · DCF fair value · Reverse-DCF
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🎙 Management Tone Mixed → Stable 4 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
📊 MIXED Alcoa Q1 2026: $595M adjusted EBITDA, $1.4B cash, redeems $219M notes
Revenue & Profitability
Revenue was $3.2 billion, down 7% sequentially. Net income attributable to Alcoa was $425 million ($1.60 per share) versus $213 million in Q4 2025. Adjusted net income was $373 million ($1.40 per share). Adjusted EBITDA was $595 million. Free cash flow was -$298 million due to seasonal working capital build. Cash balance was $1.4 billion, and adjusted net debt was $1.8 billion.
Outlook
Management expects global aluminum demand to grow sequentially but at a slower pace due to the Middle East conflict, which has curtailed 2.5 million tonnes smelting capacity year-to-date. Inventories remain historically low. Supply disruptions outweigh softer demand. Packaging and electrical lead demand growth; automotive and construction are soft. North America and Europe remain in substantial deficit.
Growth Drivers
Growth levers include restart of San Ciprián smelter (completed April 7), increased production at Portland, Lista, and Alumar smelters, and higher value-add product volumes due to customers seeking secure supply. The company is repositioning inventory to maximize value-add production. Monetization of idle sites (Massena East data center project) is in advanced discussions.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
Capital expenditures were $119 million in Q1 2026, with the full-year outlook maintained. Environmental and ARO payments increased to approximately $360 million (from $325 million) due to Australian mine approval agreements. A potential restart of the Warrick smelter fourth line would cost ~$100 million and take 1-2 years but is not yet committed.
Margins
Adjusted EBITDA margin was approximately 18.6% on $3.2B revenue. Operating leverage benefits from higher metal prices and lower alumina costs. Value-add products yield higher margins. Cost structure is insulated from spot energy volatility. Alumina segment margins are pressured by lower API prices and higher diesel costs. Aluminum segment margins improved sequentially due to higher LME and Midwest premium pricing.
Key Risks
Management flagged the Middle East conflict causing supply disruptions, higher energy (diesel) and freight costs, and alumina price weakness. Section 232 tariffs on Canadian metal are expected to add ~$35 million in Q2 2026. Caustic soda prices are rising due to lower petrochemical processing. Diesel supply certainty extends only through end of May. The San Ciprián refinery is incurring significant losses, though the smelter is profitable.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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📊 Analysis Methodology

This comprehensive investment analysis was conducted using The Finmagine™ Stock Analysis & Ranking Methodology, a proprietary framework that systematically evaluates stocks across five critical dimensions: Financial Health, Growth Prospects, Competitive Positioning, Management Quality, and Valuation.

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
The author and/or analyst may currently hold or have previously held positions in the securities discussed. Any such positions are not intended to influence the objectivity or independence of the analysis. This research is produced independently and is not sponsored, endorsed, or commissioned by any company or institution.

Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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