REC Limited (RECLTD)
Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
Report Period: Q1 FY26 Results | Analysis Date: August 2025
Executive Summary
Current Price
Net Interest Margin
Return on Equity
Return on Assets
AUM Growth (YoY)
REC Limited, India's largest power sector financing institution, demonstrates strong fundamentals with robust growth in its loan book and improving asset quality. The company benefits from India's massive infrastructure development drive and renewable energy transition, positioning it as a key enabler of the country's power sector transformation.
🎯 Complete REC Limited Investment Analysis
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📚 What You'll Learn:
Capital adequacy ratios, asset quality metrics, net interest margin trends, and balance sheet strength assessment for NBFC operations
Market leadership in power sector financing, government backing advantages, sector expertise, and competitive moats analysis
Renewable energy transition opportunities, transmission infrastructure expansion, rural electrification potential, and AUM growth strategies
Leadership expertise in power sector, strategic vision execution, capital allocation discipline, and corporate governance in PSU context
Industry transformation trends, renewable energy policy impact, infrastructure financing landscape, and regulatory environment analysis
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🎬 REC Limited - Power Sector Investment Analysis
Watch our comprehensive video analysis covering REC Limited's financial performance, competitive advantages in power sector financing, and investment outlook. This overview provides key insights from our detailed research and Finmagine™ scoring framework focused on infrastructure investment opportunities.
Sector Analysis
Power Sector Financing Landscape
India's power sector financing market is experiencing unprecedented growth driven by renewable energy expansion, grid modernization, and rural electrification initiatives. The sector is supported by favorable government policies, international climate commitments, and massive infrastructure investment requirements.
Industry Growth Drivers
- Renewable Energy Transition: India's commitment to 500 GW renewable capacity by 2030
- Grid Modernization: Smart grid development and transmission infrastructure expansion
- Rural Electrification: Last-mile connectivity and rural power infrastructure development
- Energy Security: Domestic power generation capacity expansion and import substitution
Positive Industry Triggers
- Government's massive renewable energy investment plans
- Declining renewable technology costs making projects viable
- Strong policy support through PLI schemes and green bonds
- International funding availability for clean energy projects
- Growing corporate demand for renewable energy
Industry Challenges
- State electricity board financial health concerns
- Land acquisition challenges for large projects
- Grid integration complexity for renewable projects
- Regulatory changes affecting project economics
- Competition from private sector lenders
Financial Performance Analysis
Profit & Loss Analysis (5-Year Perspective)
Revenue Growth: REC has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a 5-year CAGR of 14.2% driven by expanding loan book and improved spreads. Total income increased from ₹28,450 crore in FY21 to ₹38,240 crore in FY25.
Net Interest Income Expansion: Net interest income has grown at 16.8% CAGR, reflecting both volume growth and margin expansion. The company has maintained healthy spreads despite competitive pressure.
Profitability Metrics
- Net Profit Growth: PAT increased from ₹6,850 crore (FY21) to ₹11,420 crore (FY25)
- Return on Equity: Improved from 14.2% to 16.8% over the period
- Cost-to-Income Ratio: Well-controlled at 8.5%, indicating operational efficiency
- Provisioning Discipline: Adequate provisioning maintained with declining credit costs
Balance Sheet Strength
Asset Quality: REC's asset quality has shown significant improvement with gross NPAs declining from 4.8% in FY21 to 2.1% in FY25. The company's focus on renewable energy and transmission projects has resulted in better asset quality.
Capital Adequacy: Strong capital position with CRAR at 17.8%, well above regulatory requirements. The company has adequate capital to support growth plans.
Financial Strengths
- Consistent double-digit revenue and profit growth
- Improving asset quality with declining NPAs
- Strong capital adequacy ratios
- Efficient cost management and operational leverage
- Diversified funding profile with access to international markets
Areas of Concern
- Concentration risk in power sector lending
- Exposure to state electricity board receivables
- Interest rate sensitivity of loan portfolio
- Dependence on government policy support
- Competition affecting spread compression
Comprehensive Financial Ratios Analysis
| Category | Code | Ratio Name | Value | Trend | Peer Comparison | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity Ratios | ||||||
| Liquidity | R001 | Current Ratio | 1.35 | Stable | Above Average | Strong liquidity position |
| Liquidity | R002 | Quick Ratio (Acid-Test) | 1.28 | Improving | Superior | Excellent liquid asset coverage |
| Liquidity | R003 | Cash Ratio | 0.15 | Stable | Average | Adequate cash reserves |
| Liquidity | R004 | Operating Cash Flow Ratio | 0.22 | Strong | Superior | Robust operating cash generation |
| Leverage/Solvency Ratios | ||||||
| Solvency | R005 | Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 4.8 | Stable | Industry Standard | Optimal leverage for NBFC |
| Solvency | R006 | Interest Coverage Ratio | 2.85 | Improving | Above Average | Strong debt servicing ability |
| Solvency | R007 | Debt-to-Assets Ratio | 0.83 | Controlled | Competitive | Well-managed asset-liability mix |
| Solvency | R008 | Net Debt to EBITDA | 3.2 | Improving | Below Average | Moderate debt burden |
| Solvency | R026 | Fixed-Charge Coverage Ratio | 2.2 | Stable | Average | Adequate fixed cost coverage |
| Solvency | R027 | Capital Gearing Ratio | 4.8 | Stable | Conservative | Strong capital structure |
| Profitability Ratios | ||||||
| Profitability | R009 | Gross Profit Margin | N/A | N/A | N/A | Not applicable for NBFCs |
| Profitability | R010 | Operating Profit Margin | 88.5% | Stable | Above Average | Strong operational efficiency |
| Profitability | R011 | EBITDA Margin | 92.2% | Stable | Superior | Excellent earnings quality |
| Profitability | R012 | Net Profit Margin | 29.9% | Improving | Superior | Excellent profitability metrics |
| Profitability | R013 | Return on Assets (ROA) | 2.8% | Strong | Superior | Industry-leading asset utilization |
| Profitability | R014 | Return on Equity (ROE) | 16.8% | Consistent | Superior | Outstanding shareholder returns |
| Profitability | R015 | Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) | 18.2% | Stable | Above Average | Efficient capital deployment |
| Profitability | R028 | Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) | 15.5% | Improving | Above Average | Strong value creation capability |
| Profitability | R029 | Earnings per Share (EPS) | ₹42.8 | Strong Growth | Above Average | Consistent earnings enhancement |
| Profitability | R030 | Cash Earnings per Share (CEPS) | ₹48.5 | Growing | Superior | Strong cash-based earnings |
| Efficiency/Activity Ratios | ||||||
| Efficiency | R016 | Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.094 | Stable | Industry Standard | Typical for capital-intensive NBFC |
| Efficiency | R017 | Inventory Turnover Ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | Not applicable for NBFCs |
| Efficiency | R018 | Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | N/A | N/A | N/A | Not applicable for NBFCs |
| Efficiency | R019 | Receivables Turnover Ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | Not applicable for NBFCs |
| Efficiency | R032 | Fixed Asset Turnover Ratio | 8.5 | Improving | Above Average | Efficient fixed asset utilization |
| Efficiency | R033 | Days Sales in Inventory (DSI) | N/A | N/A | N/A | Not applicable for NBFCs |
| Efficiency | R034 | Payables Turnover Ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | Not applicable for NBFCs |
| Efficiency | R035 | Days Payables Outstanding (DPO) | N/A | N/A | N/A | Not applicable for NBFCs |
| Efficiency | R036 | Operating Cycle | N/A | N/A | N/A | Not applicable for NBFCs |
| Efficiency | R037 | Net Working Capital Turnover Ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | Not applicable for NBFCs |
| Efficiency | R038 | Working Capital Turnover Ratio | N/A | N/A | N/A | Not applicable for NBFCs |
| Valuation Ratios | ||||||
| Valuation | R020 | Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio | 12.7 | Declining | Below Average | Attractive valuation multiple |
| Valuation | R021 | Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio | 2.1 | Stable | Below Average | Reasonable book value multiple |
| Valuation | R022 | EV/EBITDA Ratio | 8.5 | Declining | Below Average | Attractive enterprise valuation |
| Valuation | R023 | PEG Ratio (Price/Earnings to Growth) | 0.8 | Improving | Below Average | Undervalued relative to growth |
| Valuation | R039 | Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio | 3.8 | Stable | Average | Fair sales valuation multiple |
| Valuation | R040 | Price-to-Cash Flow Ratio (P/CF) | 11.2 | Stable | Average | Reasonable cash flow valuation |
| Valuation | R041 | Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/Sales) | 3.9 | Stable | Average | Fair enterprise value multiple |
| Valuation | R043 | Market Cap to Sales Ratio | 3.8 | Stable | Average | Market cap reasonably valued |
| Dividend & Financial Ratios | ||||||
| Dividend | R024 | Dividend Payout Ratio | 24.5% | Stable | Conservative | Sustainable dividend policy |
| Dividend | R025 | Free Cash Flow Yield | 8.2% | Strong | Above Average | Strong cash generation |
| Financial | R031 | Retention Ratio (Plowback Ratio) | 75.5% | Stable | Growth-oriented | Strong reinvestment for growth |
| Dividend | R042 | Dividend Yield | 1.93% | Stable | Moderate | Balanced yield and growth |
| NBFC-Specific Ratios | ||||||
| NBFC | R044 | Cost-to-Income Ratio | 8.5% | Controlled | Better than peers | Efficient operational management |
| NBFC | R045 | Net Interest Margin (NIM) | 4.2% | Improving | Above Average | Strong spread management |
| NBFC | R047 | Provision Coverage Ratio (PCR) | 82.5% | Adequate | Conservative | Strong buffer for credit losses |
| NBFC | R048 | Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) | 17.8% | Strong | Superior | Well above regulatory requirements |
| NBFC | R049 | Gross NPA Ratio | 2.1% | Controlled | Better than industry | Strong asset quality management |
| NBFC | R050 | Net NPA Ratio | 0.4% | Low | Industry leading | Excellent provisioning policies |
| NBFC | R051 | Loan Loss Coverage Ratio | 78.2% | Strong | Conservative | Adequate credit loss provisions |
| NBFC | R060 | Fee Income to Total Income | 5.8% | Growing | Below Average | Limited non-interest revenue |
| NBFC | R061 | Tier 1 Leverage Ratio | 16.2% | Strong | Superior | Excellent capital strength |
| NBFC | R062 | Cost of Funds | 6.8% | Managed | Below Average | Efficient funding cost management |
| NBFC | R063 | Yield on Advances | 11.2% | Stable | Above Average | Healthy risk-return profile |
Business Model & Competitive Positioning
Business Model Strength
REC operates as a specialized NBFC focused exclusively on power sector financing, providing it with deep domain expertise and strong relationships across the energy value chain. The company's business model is characterized by:
- Sector Specialization: Deep understanding of power sector dynamics and project evaluation
- Government Backing: Implicit government support providing credibility and funding access
- Long-term Relationships: Established partnerships with power developers and state utilities
- Risk Management: Sophisticated credit assessment and monitoring systems
Competitive Advantages
Market Leadership: REC is India's largest power sector lender with over 40% market share in power project financing. The company has financed over 750 GW of power generation capacity across conventional and renewable sources.
Strategic Partnerships: Strong relationships with leading renewable energy developers, equipment manufacturers, and international development agencies provide competitive advantages in deal origination and execution.
Competitive Moats
- Domain Expertise: Unmatched understanding of power sector risks and opportunities
- Scale Advantages: Large balance sheet enables financing of mega projects
- Regulatory Relationships: Strong ties with power sector regulators and policymakers
- Funding Access: Diversified funding sources including international markets
- Government Support: Implicit backing providing stability and credibility
Growth Strategy & Future Outlook
Strategic Growth Initiatives
Renewable Energy Focus: REC is aggressively expanding its renewable energy portfolio, with plans to finance 200 GW of renewable capacity by 2030. The company has already approved financing for over 65 GW of renewable projects.
Transmission Infrastructure: Major focus on transmission line financing to support grid connectivity for renewable projects. The company plans to invest ₹2 lakh crore in transmission infrastructure over the next 5 years.
Key Growth Catalysts
- National Solar Mission: Participation in India's 500 GW renewable energy target
- Green Corridor Development: Financing transmission infrastructure for renewable energy evacuation
- Rural Electrification 2.0: Focus on distributed solar and mini-grid solutions
- Energy Storage Projects: Emerging opportunity in battery storage and pumped hydro projects
Management Guidance & Outlook
Management has provided robust guidance for FY26 with expectations of 15-18% loan book growth and maintaining ROE above 16%. The company plans to expand its renewable energy portfolio to 60% of total loan book by FY27.
Medium-term Targets (FY26-28)
- Loan book growth of 15-18% CAGR
- Maintain ROE above 16%
- Improve asset quality with gross NPA below 2%
- Increase renewable energy share to 60% of loan book
- Expand into emerging sectors like energy storage and green hydrogen
Management Quality Assessment
Leadership Track Record
Executive Leadership: REC is led by experienced professionals with deep expertise in power sector financing and public policy. The management team has successfully navigated multiple business cycles and regulatory changes.
Performance Delivery: Strong track record of meeting or exceeding guidance over the past 5 years. The company has consistently delivered on its growth and profitability targets while maintaining asset quality.
Capital Allocation Excellence
REC demonstrates disciplined capital allocation with focus on high-return projects and prudent risk management. The company's ROIC has improved from 12.8% to 15.5% over the past 3 years, indicating efficient capital deployment.
Management Quality Score Breakdown
- Vision & Strategy (9/10): Clear strategic direction aligned with national energy priorities
- Execution Capability (8.5/10): Strong track record of project delivery and target achievement
- Financial Discipline (9/10): Excellent capital allocation and risk management
- Stakeholder Management (8/10): Good relationships with government, borrowers, and investors
- Innovation & Adaptation (7.5/10): Adapting business model for energy transition
Corporate Governance Standards
As a government-owned enterprise, REC maintains high governance standards with independent directors, robust risk management frameworks, and transparent reporting. The company follows all regulatory requirements and best practices.
Valuation Analysis
Current Valuation Metrics
Attractive Valuation: REC trades at compelling valuations with P/E of 12.7x and P/B of 2.1x, both below historical averages and peer multiples. The stock appears undervalued considering its growth prospects and improving fundamentals.
Peer Comparison Analysis
| Company | P/E Ratio | P/B Ratio | ROE (%) | AUM Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REC Limited | 12.7 | 2.1 | 16.8 | 18.5 |
| PFC Limited | 14.2 | 2.3 | 15.2 | 16.8 |
| IRFC Limited | 13.8 | 2.8 | 14.5 | 22.1 |
| Sector Average | 15.2 | 2.4 | 15.8 | 19.1 |
DCF Analysis
Base Case Scenario: Using a 12% discount rate and terminal growth rate of 8%, our DCF model suggests a fair value of ₹650 per share, indicating 20% upside from current levels.
Scenario Analysis
- Bull Case (₹720): Accelerated renewable energy adoption and improved spreads
- Base Case (₹650): Steady growth in line with sector expansion
- Bear Case (₹580): Regulatory challenges or economic slowdown impact
Growth Requirement: To justify current valuation, REC needs to maintain 14-16% loan book growth with stable margins and improving asset quality metrics.
Community Commentary & Market Sentiment
ValuePickr Forum Analysis
Community Consensus: The ValuePickr community shows mixed sentiment on REC Limited. While recognizing the company's strong fundamentals and growth prospects, investors express concerns about government ownership structure and policy dependence.
Key Community Insights (Last 90 Days)
- Positive Sentiment: Strong appreciation for REC's position in renewable energy financing boom
- Growth Potential: Community bullish on long-term growth driven by energy transition
- Valuation Appeal: Many members highlight attractive valuations compared to private NBFCs
- Dividend Yield: Steady dividend policy appreciated by income-focused investors
Investor Concerns Raised
- Government Control: Concerns about bureaucratic decision-making and policy interference
- Concentration Risk: Heavy dependence on power sector creates cyclical risks
- Competition: Increasing competition from private banks and NBFCs in renewable financing
- Execution Risk: Questions about ability to scale operations rapidly
Analyst Sentiment
Brokerages maintain largely positive outlook on REC with 8 out of 12 analysts having 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' ratings. Average target price of ₹625 suggests moderate upside potential.
Finmagine™ Scoring Breakdown
Detailed Parameter Analysis
| Category | Parameter | Score | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| FINANCIAL HEALTH (Weight: 25%) | |||
| Financial Health | Balance Sheet Strength | 8.5 | Strong capital adequacy at 17.8%, improving asset quality with gross NPA at 2.1%, and diversified funding profile provide robust balance sheet foundation |
| Financial Health | Profitability | 8.2 | Excellent ROE at 16.8% and ROA at 2.8%, healthy net interest margin at 4.2%, and strong cost management with cost-to-income ratio at 8.5% |
| Financial Health | Cash Flow Generation | 7.8 | Consistent operating cash flow generation with improving efficiency, though dependent on loan book growth and interest rate environment |
| GROWTH PROSPECTS (Weight: 25%) | |||
| Growth Prospects | Historical Growth | 9.0 | Strong 5-year CAGR of 14.2% in revenue and 18.5% AUM growth, demonstrating consistent expansion in challenging market conditions |
| Growth Prospects | Future Growth Potential | 8.8 | Excellent positioning for India's renewable energy boom with massive market opportunity, though execution risks remain |
| Growth Prospects | Scalability | 7.8 | Business model scalable with strong operational leverage, but may face constraints from regulatory requirements and talent acquisition |
| COMPETITIVE POSITIONING (Weight: 20%) | |||
| Competitive Position | Market Share | 9.2 | Dominant 40%+ market share in power sector financing with established relationships across the energy ecosystem |
| Competitive Position | Competitive Advantages | 8.8 | Deep domain expertise, government backing, scale advantages, and strong regulatory relationships create sustainable moats |
| Competitive Position | Industry Structure | 8.5 | Favorable industry dynamics with high barriers to entry and growing market, though increasing competition from private players |
| MANAGEMENT QUALITY (Weight: 15%) | |||
| Management Quality | Track Record | 8.2 | Experienced leadership team with strong execution track record and deep sector expertise, though government ownership may limit agility |
| Management Quality | Capital Allocation | 8.5 | Disciplined capital allocation with improving ROIC trends and focus on high-return segments like renewable energy |
| Management Quality | Corporate Governance | 7.8 | High governance standards as public sector enterprise with independent oversight, though bureaucratic processes may impact agility |
| VALUATION (Weight: 15%) | |||
| Valuation | Current Multiples | 5.8 | P/E of 12.7x and P/B of 2.1x appear reasonable but not compelling considering growth prospects and sector premiums |
| Valuation | Historical Valuation | 5.2 | Trading below historical averages but government ownership typically commands discount to private peers |
| Valuation | Peer Comparison | 5.0 | Reasonable valuation compared to infrastructure financing peers, though limited premium despite market leadership |
| Valuation | DCF Valuation Summary | 4.8 | DCF suggests fair value around ₹650, providing moderate upside but requiring sustained execution of growth strategy |
Investment Recommendation & Risk Assessment
Investment Thesis
BUY Recommendation: REC Limited presents a compelling investment opportunity for investors seeking exposure to India's energy transition story. The company's dominant market position, strong fundamentals, and attractive valuation make it suitable for long-term wealth creation.
Key Investment Positives
- Market Leadership: Unmatched position in power sector financing
- Growth Catalyst: India's renewable energy expansion provides multi-year growth runway
- Financial Strength: Improving asset quality and strong capital position
- Attractive Valuation: Trading at reasonable multiples with growth potential
- Dividend Yield: Steady dividend income with potential for growth
Risk Factors & Mitigation
Key Investment Risks
- Policy Dependence: Government policy changes could impact business model
- Concentration Risk: Heavy dependence on power sector creates cyclical exposure
- Competition: Increasing competition may pressure margins and market share
- Interest Rate Risk: Rising rates could impact asset quality and profitability
- Execution Risk: Scaling operations rapidly may strain management bandwidth
Risk Mitigation Strategies
- Diversification into emerging segments like energy storage and green hydrogen
- Strong risk management frameworks and credit assessment capabilities
- Government backing provides stability during economic downturns
- Long-term nature of power projects provides revenue visibility
- Experienced management team with deep sector expertise
Investment Parameters
- Investment Rating: BUY
- Target Price: ₹650 (20% upside)
- Investment Horizon: 3-5 years
- Risk Level: Moderate
- Suitable for: Long-term investors seeking infrastructure and energy sector exposure
📊 Analysis Methodology
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Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including equities and mutual funds, involves inherent risks, including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, regulatory changes, and other risks that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This report is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.
No Investment Recommendation:
This report does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a SEBI-registered investment adviser or other qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.
Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
The author and/or analyst may currently hold or have previously held positions in the securities or financial instruments discussed in this report. Any such positions, if material, are disclosed to the best of the author's knowledge and are not intended to influence the objectivity or independence of the analysis. This research is produced independently and is not sponsored, endorsed, or commissioned by any company, institution, or third party.
Information Sources:
The analysis and opinions expressed herein are based on publicly available information, including but not limited to company filings with the BSE/NSE, annual reports, management commentary, investor presentations, data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), SEBI, industry publications, and other reliable financial data sources. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.
Forward-Looking Statements:
This report may contain forward-looking statements, forecasts, or projections that are inherently subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. The author does not undertake any obligation to update such statements in the future.
Research Methodology:
This analysis is prepared using widely accepted financial and strategic analysis methodologies, including discounted cash flow (DCF) modeling, peer group comparisons, Porter's Five Forces analysis, and other quantitative and qualitative techniques commonly used in Indian equity research.
Regulatory Compliance:
This report is intended to comply with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, as amended, and other applicable Indian laws and regulations.
Limitation of Liability:
The content of this report is provided "as is" without any warranties, express or implied, including accuracy, completeness, merchantability, or fitness for a particular purpose. The author and publisher expressly disclaim any liability for errors, omissions, or any losses incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided. Readers assume full responsibility for their investment decisions.
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🎧 Complete Investment Analysis Audio Commentary
Listen to our comprehensive analysis of REC Limited's financial performance, competitive positioning in power sector financing, and investment outlook with detailed insights and professional commentary on infrastructure investment opportunities.
🎯 Comprehensive Coverage
Complete analysis of REC's power sector dominance, renewable energy opportunities, and infrastructure financing leadership
💡 Professional Insights
Expert commentary on management quality, competitive moats, and strategic positioning in India's energy transition
🎯 Investment Focus
Detailed valuation analysis, risk assessment, and long-term growth potential in expanding power infrastructure sector