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United Parcel Service, Inc.
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S&P 500
$80.5B
Market Cap
15.1
P/E
4.64
PEG
17.7%
ROCE
33.8%
ROE
1.76
D/E
9.7%
OPM
-17.3%
% from 52W High
58
α RS
🔍 UPS is showing a notable setup because it matches 2 of 39 tracked screener presets and it's within 17.3% of its 52-week high. The main caution: the Magic Formula preset's Backtest win rate is only 44.7%. Net: Mixed signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction 52W High Backtest
Sources
Conviction 2/39 · 17.3% from 52W high · Backtest win rate 44.7%
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Currency-adjusted total returns for UPS including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
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By Category
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About

United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding UPS
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 1.23M $121.5M 0.19% Mar 2026
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 33.4K $3.3M 0.00% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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🎙 Management Tone Confident Specific ~ Volatile 5 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
Good quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q2 2026
Revenue
$22.8B
+7.6% YoY
Adjusted Operating Profit
$2.1B
+12% YoY
Adjusted Operating Margin
9.2%
+0.4pp YoY
What Went Right
  • Completed Amazon glide-down and network reconfiguration on plan: removed ~2M pieces/day of lower-quality volume and ~$4.5B of related expense.
  • U.S. Domestic adjusted operating profit rose 21% YoY to $1.2B; adjusted operating margin expanded 100bps to 8.0%.
  • SMB average daily volume grew 4.3%, DAP revenue hit $1.4B, and healthcare revenue exceeded $3B for the second straight quarter.
What to Watch
  • International adjusted operating profit fell $59M YoY to $623M; fuel volatility and Middle East disruption pressured margins by ~120bps.
  • Total U.S. average daily volume was down 3.3% YoY and B2B ADV fell 3.2%, so growth still depends on mix shift to premium segments.
  • Q3 U.S. Domestic margin is guided to moderate to ~7% before re-accelerating in Q4; international volume remained soft in Europe.
Management Guidance
  • FY2026 consolidated revenue raised to ~$91.2B, adjusted operating profit to ~$8.65B, and adjusted diluted EPS to ~$7.22.
  • Q3 2026: U.S. Domestic revenue roughly flat YoY with operating margin ~7%; International revenue up mid-single digits with operating margin 13%-14%; SCS revenue up low double digits with operating margin 10%-11%.
  • Full-year capex still ~$3.0B, dividends ~$5.4B, free cash flow ~$5.5B, and pension contributions of $1.3B.
Investor Lens
The thesis is stronger after this call: UPS has fully executed the Amazon volume exit and network right-sizing, which is now showing up in domestic operating leverage and margin expansion. Management raised full-year guidance and expects ex-Amazon volume growth in 2H, while maintaining a 50-100bp spread between revenue-per-piece and cost-per-piece growth. Key watch items remain international fuel/geopolitical pressure, tariff-driven trade-lane volatility, and competitive dynamics around premium volume. Overall, the structural reset appears to be transitioning into a higher-quality, margin-accretive growth phase.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📈 STRONG Q2 op profit +12%; FY EPS guide raised to $7.22.
Revenue
Consolidated revenue was $22.8B, up 7.6% YoY. U.S. Domestic revenue grew 6% to $14.9B, International rose 12.5% to $5.0B, and Supply Chain Solutions increased 7.8% to $2.9B.
Profitability
Non-GAAP adjusted operating profit rose 12% YoY to $2.1B, and adjusted diluted EPS was $1.76. GAAP EPS was $0.71, including $891M of after-tax transformation charges related to the Driver Choice Program.
Margins
Consolidated adjusted operating margin expanded 40bps YoY to 9.2%, up 300bps sequentially. U.S. Domestic adjusted margin was 8.0%, up 100bps YoY; SCS margin was 10.2%, up 220bps; International margin was 12.4% with fuel headwinds of ~120bps.
Balance Sheet
UPS ended Q2 with $4.7B in cash and no outstanding commercial paper. Year-to-date cash from operations was $3.1B and free cash flow was $1.6B, including Driver Choice payments; full-year capex guidance remains ~$3.0B.
Key Risks
Management flagged fuel price volatility and Middle East conflict as drags on international margins. Tariffs and de minimis changes are still affecting trade lanes, particularly Canada-to-U.S. and Europe exports, while total U.S. average daily volume declined 3.3% YoY.
Outlook
UPS raised FY2026 revenue to ~$91.2B, adjusted operating profit to ~$8.65B, and adjusted EPS to ~$7.22. For Q3, the company guides U.S. Domestic operating margin to ~7%, International to 13%-14%, and SCS to 10%-11%, with ex-Amazon volume expected to grow in 2H.
Generated by AI · Q2 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-07-28
Q2 2026 saw strong revenue and profit growth, driven by network automation, premium segment focus, and successful Amazon glide down. Raised full-year guidance reflects momentum in SMB, healthcare, and international, with robust cash flow and disciplined capital allocation.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-28
Q1 2026 results exceeded expectations with strong revenue and profit, driven by premium segment growth, cost reductions, and network reconfiguration. 2026 guidance is reaffirmed, with margin expansion expected as cost actions and automation take effect.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-01-27
Fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results exceeded expectations, with strong revenue quality, margin expansion in key segments, and significant progress in network automation and cost reduction. 2026 guidance anticipates flat revenue and margin, with growth expected in SMB, B2B, and healthcare, and margin improvement in the second half as restructuring concludes.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-28
Q3 2025 saw $21.4B in revenue and $2.1B operating profit, with strong revenue per piece growth offsetting volume declines, especially from Amazon. Cost reductions, automation, and network reconfiguration are on track, with Q4 revenue expected at $24B and continued margin expansion.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-29
Second quarter revenue was $21.2B with operating margin at 8.8%, reflecting strategic cost actions amid macro uncertainty. U.S. and China-U.S. volumes declined, but international and healthcare segments showed growth. No forward guidance due to tariff and demand uncertainty.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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