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Mattel, Inc.
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$5.3B
Market Cap
16.0
P/E
2.12
PEG
13.2%
ROCE
17.7%
ROE
1.20
D/E
11.0%
OPM
-21.8%
% from 52W High
74
α RS
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🌏 Global Investor Returns
Currency-adjusted total returns for MAT including FX impact
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📈 Price History
Ratio Health
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About

Mattel, Inc., a play and family entertainment company, designs, manufactures, markets, and sells toys, games, and other products in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers dolls and accessories, books, content, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, American Girl, Disney Princess, Disney Frozen, Monster High, Polly Pocket, and KPop Demon Hunters brands; die-cast vehicles, tracks, playsets, and accessories for kids, adults, and collectors under the Hot Wheels, Hot Wheels Monster Trucks, Hot Wheels RC, Matchbox, and Matchbox, and Cars brands; and infant, toddler, and preschool products comprising toys, content, live events, and other consumer products under the Fisher-Price, Little People, Thomas & Friends, and Power Wheels brands. It also provides action figures, building sets, games, and other products under the Masters of the Universe, Mattel Brick Shop, MEGA, UNO, Jurassic World, Minecraft, WWE, Toy Story, Star Wars, Pictionary, Skip-Bo, Phase 10, and Blokus brands; and licensor partner brands, including Disney Pixar, Microsoft, NBCUniversal, and WWE. The company sells its products to retailers, including omnichannel retailers, discount and free-standing toy stores, chain stores, department stores, and other retail outlets; wholesalers; and directly to consumers through retail spaces, boutique stores, agents and distributors, and its e-commerce platforms and third-party e-commerce channels. Mattel, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in El Segundo, California.

Key Ratios Snapshot
📈 Growth Pattern
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⭐ Superinvestors Holding MAT
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Steve Cohen Point72 Asset Management 2.22M $32.3M 0.04% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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3-Statement Financial Model
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📊 MIXED Mattel Q1 2026 net sales $862M (+4% reported), adjusted EPS loss $0.20
Revenue & Profitability
Q1 net sales $862M (+4% reported, +1% constant currency). Adjusted EPS loss $0.20 vs loss $0.02 prior year. Adjusted operating loss $70M vs loss $8M. Adjusted EBITDA loss $12M vs gain $57M. Free cash flow on trailing 12-month basis was $335M vs $582M. The company repurchased $200M of shares in the quarter. Full year 2026 guidance: adjusted operating income $580M-$630M, adjusted EPS $1.27-$1.39.
Outlook
Management expects the toy industry to grow in 2026, supported by a toyetic theatrical slate and further expansion of adult consumers. Per Circana, the toy industry grew in Q1. Mattel sees top line acceleration in Q2 to date and expects North America to grow in Q2 as U.S. retailer ordering patterns stabilize. Full year net sales growth guidance of 3-6% in constant currency remains unchanged.
Growth Drivers
Key growth drivers include Hot Wheels (double-digit growth), Mattel Brick Shop (expanding building sets), UNO, Little People, Masters of the Universe global theatrical release (movie June 5) and product line, Matchbox movie, major theatrical releases like Toy Story 5, new toy partnerships (KPop Demon Hunters, DC), self-published mobile games, and Mattel163 consolidation. Vehicles and challenger categories combined are expected to grow strongly in 2026.
Balance Sheet & CapEx
CapEx was $65 million in Q1, the highest for a first quarter since 2017, attributed to infrastructure investments. CapEx remains within the historical 3-4% of net sales range. The company is making strategic investments totaling approximately $150 million in 2026 in self-published mobile games, building sets, D2C, first-party data, and technology/infrastructure, expected to have high ROI and net positive contribution in 2027.
Margins
Adjusted gross margin was 45.1% in Q1, down 460 bps, driven by tariffs (240 bps), unfavorable FX (140 bps), and inflation (90 bps), partially offset by mitigation actions and OPG savings (30 bps). Full year adjusted gross margin guidance is approximately 50%, with sequential improvement expected in Q2 (still below 50%) and further improvement in H2. The Optimizing for Profitable Growth program achieved $16M savings in Q1 (cumulative $189M), targeting $50M in 2026 for a total of $225M.
Key Risks
Geopolitical events (war in Middle East) have had minimal impact to date but are being monitored. Tariff policies remain fluid; the company's guidance includes a range of assumptions and does not factor in potential refunds from IEEPA tariff rollback. Elevated commodity and freight costs (oil) could become headwinds if disruption persists. Other macroeconomic risks and regulatory actions impacting global trade are noted. The company said it is not immune to these factors.
Generated by AI · Q1 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-08-04
Net sales grew 10% year-over-year, led by strong performance in vehicles, action figures, and digital games, with Hot Wheels and Masters of the Universe as standouts. Guidance for 2026 is reiterated, with investments in digital and brand-centric strategies expected to drive significant growth in 2027.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-04-29
Q1 2026 saw 4% reported net sales growth and strong demand, led by vehicles and challenger categories, despite margin pressure from tariffs and FX. Strategic investments and digital expansion are on track, with guidance for 3%-6% sales growth and ~50% gross margin reaffirmed.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2026-02-10
Q4 2025 saw 6% gross billings growth, but full-year results missed expectations due to weak U.S. December sales. Strategic investments and the Mattel163 acquisition are set to drive digital expansion, with 2026 guidance for 3–6% sales growth and a return to 50% gross margin.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-10-21
Q3 saw net sales and operating income decline due to retailer order shifts, but consumer demand and POS grew in all regions. Vehicles and challenger categories performed well, and strong Q4 growth is expected, with full-year guidance reiterated.
Q2 2025 Q2 2025 2025-07-23
International growth and margin expansion offset U.S. trade headwinds, with net sales down 6% and flat EPS. Guidance resumed for 2025, projecting 1–3% sales growth and $1.54–$1.66 EPS, while cost savings and entertainment initiatives advance.
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📊 Analysis Methodology

This comprehensive investment analysis was conducted using The Finmagine™ Stock Analysis & Ranking Methodology, a proprietary framework that systematically evaluates stocks across five critical dimensions: Financial Health, Growth Prospects, Competitive Positioning, Management Quality, and Valuation.

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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

⚠️ Important Disclaimers — Please read without fail.

Investment Risk:
Investing in securities, including US equities and ETFs, involves inherent risks including the potential loss of principal. All investments are subject to market fluctuations, economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other factors that may affect their value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice under any circumstances.

No Investment Recommendation:
This analysis does not constitute, nor should it be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial products. Investors are strongly advised to conduct their own independent research and due diligence and to consult with a licensed financial advisor or an SEC-registered investment adviser before making any investment decisions, taking into account their individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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Conflict of Interest Disclosure:
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Information Sources:
The analysis is based on publicly available information including SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), annual reports, management commentary, and publicly available financial data. Information is believed to be accurate as of the date of publication but may be subject to change without notice. Readers are encouraged to independently verify all information before acting upon it.

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