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D.R. Horton
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S&P 500
$41.5B
Market Cap
14.6
P/E
6.46
PEG
12.3%
ROCE
14.3%
ROE
0.24
D/E
12.9%
OPM
-19.5%
% from 52W High
32
α RS
🔍 DHI is showing a multi-screen setup because it matches 6 of 39 tracked screener presets, Sector RRG has Consumer Discretionary in the Leading quadrant with the trail still strengthening, and it's within 19.5% of its 52-week high. The main caution: the Graham Defensive preset's Backtest win rate is only 46.4%. Net: Mixed signal stack, not a recommendation. ? Conviction RRG 52W High Backtest
Sources
Conviction 6/39 · Consumer Discretionary in Leading quadrant · 19.5% from 52W high · Backtest win rate 46.4%
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Ratio Health
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About

D.R. Horton, Inc. operates as a homebuilding company in East, North, Southeast, South Central, Southwest, and Northwest regions in the United States. It engages in the acquisition and development of land; and construction and sale of residential homes in 126 markets across 36 states under the names of D.R. Horton. The company also constructs and sells single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes and duplexes. In addition, it provides mortgage financing and title agency services; and engages in the residential lot development business. Further, the company develops, constructs, owns, leases, and sells multi-family and single-family rental properties; conducts insurance-related operations; and owns water rights and other water-related assets, as well as non-residential real estate, including ranch land and improvements. It primarily serves homebuyers. D.R. Horton, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Arlington, Texas.

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⭐ Superinvestors Holding DHI
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Manager Shares Value % of Fund Period
Jim Simons Renaissance Technologies LLC 279.5K $38.4M 0.06% Mar 2026

SEC Form 13F data. 45-day lag from quarter end.

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🎙 Management Tone Cautious ~ Volatile 5 quarters Full tone analysis in Intelligence →
Mixed quarter Investor Presentation One-Pager? Q3 2026
Consolidated Revenue
$9.2B
n/a
Consolidated Pre-Tax Income
$1.2B
n/a
Pre-Tax Profit Margin
13.3%
n/a
Net Income
$904.9M
-12% YoY
What Went Right
  • EPS was $3.20 and home sales gross margin of 20.7% came in above the high end of guidance, helped by stick and brick costs down 5% YoY.
  • Homes closed totaled 23,983, at the high end of guidance, and trailing 12-month operating cash flow of $3.4B was fully returned to shareholders via buybacks and dividends.
  • Inventory quality is manageable: only 600 completed unsold homes were older than six months, down from 800 sequentially, and cycle times improved roughly three weeks YoY.
What to Watch
  • Cancellation rate rose to 20% in Q3 from 17% in the prior year and 16% sequentially, with net sales orders flat YoY.
  • Demand softened during the quarter, leading D.R. Horton to trim FY2026 delivery guidance to 83,800-84,300 homes and plan Q4 starts below Q3.
  • SG&A deleveraged to 8.3% of revenue versus 7.8% a year ago as community count grew 9% but revenue stayed flat; incentives are expected to remain elevated.
Management Guidance
  • Q4 FY2026 consolidated revenues of $8.8B-$9.3B and homes closed of 22,500-23,000.
  • Q4 home sales gross margin of 20.5%-21.0% and consolidated pre-tax profit margin of 12.3%-12.8%.
  • FY2026 revenues of approximately $32.5B-$33.0B, homes closed of 83,800-84,300, tax rate around 25%, operating cash flow of at least $3B, repurchases of about $2.5B and dividends of roughly $500M.
Investor Lens
The thesis is mixed: D.R. Horton showed strong margin discipline, cost deflation and capital returns, but demand softened through the quarter and full-year volume guidance was cut. The higher cancellation rate and expected elevated incentives underscore affordability pressure, so the stock likely needs mortgage rates and consumer confidence to stabilize. A strong balance sheet, $6.1B liquidity and about 6.7 years of controlled land provide flexibility for the next upcycle.
From investor presentation · AI-generated analysis · Not investment advice
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📊 MIXED Solid execution on margin but softer demand; EPS $3.20, GM 20.7%.
Revenue
Consolidated revenue was $9.2B in Q3. Home sales revenue rose 1% YoY to $8.7B on 23,983 homes closed, up 4% YoY. Rental revenue was $266.1M and financial services revenue was $221M.
Profitability
Net income attributable to D.R. Horton was $904.9M, down 12% YoY, with EPS of $3.20 down 5% from $3.36. Consolidated pre-tax income was $1.2B, producing a pre-tax margin of 13.3%.
Margins
Home sales gross margin was 20.7%, above the high end of guidance, helped by stick and brick costs down 5% YoY and slightly lower incentives. SG&A as a percentage of revenue rose to 8.3% from 7.8% a year ago. Pre-tax margin was 13.3%.
Balance Sheet
Ended the quarter with $6.1B of liquidity, including $2.1B cash and $4.0B of credit capacity, and total debt of $7.1B. Homebuilding leverage was 23.0%. D.R. Horton repurchased 4.2M shares for $615.7M and paid $127.1M in dividends during the quarter.
Key Risks
Management flagged softer demand through the quarter, a cancellation rate up to 20%, and elevated incentive levels expected to continue. Lot costs were up 5% YoY with similar inflation anticipated in Q4, and SG&A remains a drag while revenue growth is flat.
Outlook
Q4 FY26 revenue guidance is $8.8B-$9.3B with homes closed of 22,500-23,000. Full-year FY26 revenue is guided to $32.5B-$33.0B and homes closed to 83,800-84,300.
Generated by AI · Q3 2026 results · Not investment advice
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✓ 📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5 quarters) submit a missing quarter
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📞 Earnings Call Transcripts (5)
Q3 2026 Q3 2026 2026-07-21
Q3 results featured $3.20 EPS, $905M net income, and 20.7% gross margin, with strong cash flow and disciplined capital returns. Guidance anticipates stable margins and revenues for Q4 and FY2026, while affordability and cautious consumer sentiment continue to impact demand.
Q2 2026 Q2 2026 2026-04-21
Q2 saw strong pre-tax income and revenue, with net sales orders up 11% year-over-year and a 35% reduction in unsold completed homes. Guidance for FY2026 was narrowed due to lower closings and ASP, but margins remain stable and capital returns robust.
Q1 2026 Q1 2026 2026-01-20
Q1 2026 saw $798M pre-tax income on $6.9B revenue, with net sales orders up 3% year-over-year and strong cash flow. Guidance for FY 2026 remains robust, with elevated incentives and a focus on capital efficiency amid affordability challenges.
Q4 2025 Q4 2025 2025-10-28
Q4 and FY25 saw strong cash flow, disciplined capital allocation, and solid returns despite affordability challenges. FY26 guidance anticipates stable revenues, elevated incentives, and continued focus on efficiency and shareholder returns.
Q3 2025 Q3 2025 2025-07-22
Q3 results featured $1 billion net income and 21.8% gross margin, with incentives rising to support sales amid affordability challenges. FY2025 guidance was reaffirmed, and share repurchase plans increased, while inventory and cost controls remain a focus.
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Financial Model
Projections are built from each company's audited annual financials (Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow) over the last 5 fiscal years. Forward assumptions — revenue growth %, EBITDA margin, D&A (USD millions), interest expense, tax rate, and capex — are AI-generated using historical context and refreshed twice a year: after the December results season and after the September/Q4 results season.

DCF Valuation
Fair Value = Σ(FCFt / (1+WACC)t) + Terminal Value. Terminal Value uses the Gordon Growth Model: FCF5 × (1+g) / (WACC−g). Default WACC: 10% (US risk-free ~4.5%, equity risk premium ~5.5%). Default terminal growth: 3% (long-run US nominal GDP proxy).

CAGR Tracker
Expected 5-year CAGR = (DCF Fair Value / Current Price)1/5 − 1. Assumes fair value is reached in exactly 5 years — a mechanical estimate only.

Data Sources & Limitations
Financial statements sourced from public filings. Prices updated daily. Forward assumptions are AI-generated. All monetary values in USD millions. Non-US ADR companies may have currency conversion inaccuracies. Models are point-in-time and do not update intra-quarter or account for M&A, macro shocks, or extraordinary items.

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