πŸ“ Mastering the Financial Model

Build Bear / Base / Bull Projections, Run a DCF Valuation, and Track Your Conviction on Any NSE Stock

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Published: May 11, 2026  |  12 min read  |  Premium Feature Guide  |  Analysis Series

Financial Model Learning Hub

From zero to your first DCF valuation β€” the complete guide to Finmagine's 3-scenario financial modelling tool

What You Will Master

The Financial Model is Finmagine's most powerful analytical tool. It lets you build a forward-looking 3-statement model for any NSE stock across three scenarios β€” Bear, Base, and Bull β€” and derives a DCF fair value for each. This guide takes you from opening the tool to saving your first custom valuation.

What This Guide Covers:

  1. Opening the Model β€” how to search for a stock and what loads automatically
  2. Historical Financials Table β€” reading 5 years of Revenue, EBITDA, PAT, FCF, and key ratios
  3. Scenario Assumptions β€” the 7 drivers (or 2 for banking) and how to edit them
  4. Refine with Your AI β€” the one-prompt workflow for all 3 scenarios at once
  5. Projections Tables β€” P&L, Cash Flow, and Balance Sheet output
  6. DCF Valuation β€” fair value cards, implied CAGR, sensitivity matrix, reverse DCF
  7. Save to My Valuations β€” persisting your conviction for daily price-tracking
  8. Banking Model β€” how banks use PAT Γ— PE instead of DCF
Who This Is For: Premium subscribers who want to move beyond historical ratios into forward-looking valuation. You don't need to be a finance professional β€” the AI pre-fills the assumptions and you refine only what you disagree with.

Test Your Knowledge

Step 1

Opening the Financial Model

Navigate to /model/ from the nav (Analysis group) or directly from any stock page. The landing page shows a grid of all stocks with pre-generated AI assumptions β€” sorted by market cap, filterable by sector.

Searching for a Stock

Type any company name or NSE symbol in the search bar. As you type, autocomplete suggestions appear. Click a result or press Enter to load the model. The URL updates to /model/?symbol=SYMBOL β€” you can bookmark or share any model link directly.

What Loads Automatically

When you open a stock, the model fetches three things simultaneously from the database:

  1. Historical Financials β€” 5 years of P&L, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow data from Screener.in
  2. AI-Generated Assumptions β€” Bear, Base, and Bull scenario assumptions pre-generated by AI (updated quarterly)
  3. Current Market Price β€” used to compute implied CAGR from fair value
Premium Only: The Financial Model is available exclusively to premium subscribers. If you see the paywall, upgrade your subscription to access it.
Step 2

Historical Financials Table

The first table you see shows 5 years of audited financial data. This is your calibration baseline β€” before you accept or modify any projection, you need to understand where the company has been.

RowWhat It Tells You
RevenueTop-line growth trend β€” is the company growing, stagnating, or shrinking?
EBITDA & Margin %Operating profitability and pricing power β€” watch for margin compression trends
PAT & Margin %Bottom-line after interest and tax β€” the actual earnings delivered to shareholders
D&ANon-cash charge β€” high D&A relative to EBITDA indicates heavy fixed-asset businesses
InterestDebt-servicing cost β€” rising interest on flat earnings = leverage trap
CapexInvestment in future growth β€” compare to D&A; Capex > D&A means expanding asset base
FCFCash available after operations and capex β€” the only number that matters for DCF
Net DebtTotal Debt minus Cash β€” positive = net borrower, negative = net cash company
The 3-Year Average Rule: The AI uses 3-year historical averages of OPM, D&A %, and tax rate as anchors for its base scenario assumptions. If the company has had an unusual year (one-time write-off, spike in capex), the averages smooth it out. Always check if the 3-year average is representative of the business going forward.
Step 3

Scenario Assumptions

The assumptions matrix is the heart of the model. It shows 7 drivers across 5 forward years, for each of the 3 scenarios. Every cell is an editable input β€” click any number to change it, and projections update instantly.

🐻 Bear

Volume slowdown, margin pressure, input cost headwinds. The downside case if things go wrong.

Base

Continuation of recent trend with moderate improvement. The most likely outcome given current conditions.

πŸ‚ Bull

Market share gains, margin expansion, new segment success. The upside case if everything goes right.

The 7 Assumption Drivers (Non-Banking)

DriverUnitWhat to Consider
Revenue Growth% YoYIndustry growth rate + market share change. Bear < industry growth; Bull > industry growth.
EBITDA Margin% of RevenuePricing power + cost structure. Anchor near historical average; adjust for competitive dynamics.
D&A % of Revenue%Generally stable unless major capex cycle changes fixed-asset base. Use 3-year avg as anchor.
Interest (β‚ΉCr)β‚Ή CroreAbsolute amount, not a ratio. Rises if debt is taken on for growth; falls if debt repaid.
Tax Rate% of PBTEffective rate. Companies with deferred tax assets or MAT credit may show lower effective rates.
Capex (β‚ΉCr)β‚Ή CroreAbsolute spend. High capex companies (manufacturers) need larger amounts; asset-light can be minimal.
NWC DaysDaysNet Working Capital days = (Inventory + Receivables - Payables) / Daily Revenue. Negative = float business.
Common Mistake: Setting the Bull scenario Revenue Growth too high without adjusting EBITDA margin upward proportionally. Higher volume without margin improvement is not a bull case β€” it's just optimistic revenue with unchanged economics.

The Banking Model (2-Driver)

Banks and NBFCs use a simplified PAT Γ— PE valuation model instead of DCF, since their cash flows are fundamentally different. The two drivers are:

Fair Value = Year 5 EPS Γ— Target PE. This is simpler but requires careful judgment on the Target PE assumption.

Step 4

Refine with Your AI

This is the most powerful feature of the Financial Model. Instead of manually editing each assumption cell, you can get Claude or ChatGPT to research and refine all 3 scenarios for you β€” in a single prompt.

The Workflow

  1. Scroll to the "✦ Refine with your AI" accordion at the bottom of the model page
  2. Click it to expand. The prompt is pre-built with the company's historical financials and current AI-generated assumptions
  3. Click "πŸ“‹ Copy prompt" and paste it into Claude or ChatGPT
  4. The AI will research the company and return a JSON object with bear, base, and bull assumptions for all 7 drivers
  5. Paste the JSON response into the "Paste AI response here" box
  6. Click "Apply to Model" β€” all 3 scenarios update instantly
What the Prompt Contains: The prompt includes the company name, sector, industry, 3-year averages of key ratios, and a full historical financials table. The AI uses this as context to generate sector-appropriate, company-specific assumptions β€” not generic numbers.

Reading the AI Response

The AI returns a JSON object in this format:

{
  "bear": { "revenue_growth":[6,5,4,4,3], "ebitda_margin":[22,21,21,20,20], ... },
  "base": { "revenue_growth":[12,12,13,12,11], "ebitda_margin":[25,26,26,27,27], ... },
  "bull": { "revenue_growth":[16,18,18,16,15], "ebitda_margin":[27,28,29,30,30], ... },
  "wacc": 12,
  "terminal_g": 5
}

You don't need to understand every field β€” just paste it and click Apply. The model handles the parsing.

Best AI for This: Claude (claude.ai) gives the best results for this prompt β€” it reads financial tables accurately, reasons well about sector dynamics, and returns clean JSON. ChatGPT works well too.
Review Before Saving: The AI's numbers are a starting point, not gospel. Always scan the assumptions for sanity β€” does the bull scenario revenue growth look plausible given the company's addressable market? Does the bear scenario EBITDA margin reflect realistic downside?
Step 5

DCF Valuation & Fair Value

After assumptions are set, the model automatically computes a Discounted Cash Flow valuation for each scenario.

How the DCF Works

  1. Revenue β†’ EBITDA (via margin %) β†’ D&A β†’ EBIT β†’ Tax β†’ PAT
  2. PAT + D&A βˆ’ Ξ”Working Capital βˆ’ Capex = Free Cash Flow
  3. FCF is discounted at WACC for each of 5 years
  4. A terminal value (Gordon Growth Model) is added for Year 5+
  5. Net Debt is subtracted to get Equity Value
  6. Equity Value Γ· Shares Outstanding = Fair Value per Share

WACC and Terminal Growth

InputTypical Range (India)Guidance
WACC10–16%Large-cap stable: ~12%. Small-cap risky: ~15%. WACC must always exceed Terminal Growth.
Terminal Growth4–7%Use India's long-run nominal GDP growth (~6–7%) as the ceiling. Conservative: 4–5%.

Reading the Fair Value Cards

Each scenario shows a fair value card with three numbers:

The Margin of Safety Rule: Only the Base scenario fair value being 20–30% above the current price suggests a reasonable entry. If even the Bull case barely exceeds the current price, the stock is pricing in perfection β€” there is no margin of safety.

The Sensitivity Matrix

Below the fair value cards is a 5Γ—5 sensitivity table showing how fair value changes across Β±2% WACC and Β±2% terminal growth variations. This tells you how sensitive the valuation is to your discount rate assumptions β€” a critical check for capital-intensive or high-growth companies.

Reverse DCF

The Reverse DCF answers: "What revenue CAGR does the market currently price in?" If the implied revenue CAGR is higher than what's realistic for the sector, the stock is likely overvalued. If it's lower than even the bear case, the market may be mispricing the risk.

Step 6

Save to My Valuations

After applying your custom AI refinements, you can save your assumptions permanently using the "πŸ’Ύ Save to My Valuations" button. This persists your bear/base/bull conviction to your personal account.

What Gets Saved

How It Works After Saving

Once saved, visit My Valuations (appears in nav under Analysis after your first save). The page shows all your saved stocks with:

Re-Refining: Click ✏️ Edit on any row in My Valuations to reopen the Financial Model with that stock. Run the AI refinement again if the company has reported a new quarter. Click Save again β€” your assumptions update with the latest figures.
My Valuations vs. CAGR Tracker: CAGR Tracker shows platform-wide AI assumptions for all stocks (same for every user). My Valuations shows only YOUR custom assumptions β€” your personal conviction, not the platform's defaults. These are two distinct and complementary tools.

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