Growth Triggers: Conviction Tags & Trigger Scoreboard

How the v2.16.0 Upgrade Separates Confirmed Catalysts From Speculation — and Scores the Re-Rating Case in One View

New in v2.16.0 — Growth Triggers Section — Deep Research Template — Screener.in

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Published: April 6, 2026  |  v2.16.0  |  15 min read  |  Catalyst Analysis

The Problem With an Untagged Trigger List

Every growth trigger analysis produces a list. "Operating leverage kicking in as utilisation crosses 75%." "New plant coming online in Q2 FY27." "Export market entry — early-stage pipeline." "Premiumisation of product mix per management guidance." "Adjacent market opportunity identified in tier-2 cities."

Read that list and you have five things that could drive the stock. But you do not know which of them are already happening in the numbers, which are dependent on management delivering on stated plans, and which are unpriced possibilities that consensus has not modelled. Without that distinction, the trigger list is not analytical — it is a collection of stories.

The v2.16.0 upgrade to the Growth Triggers section addresses this directly. Every trigger now carries a conviction tag that tells you the evidentiary standard behind it. And the section closes with a Trigger Scoreboard that reduces the full catalyst picture to three numbers: Dominant Theme, Trigger Density, and Re-Rating Probability.

The Three Conviction Tags

Each growth trigger in the analysis is assigned exactly one of three tags, determined by the quality and source of the evidence behind it:

🔵 VISIBLE
The trigger is already showing up in reported financials or operational data. It is not a forecast — it is an observation from actuals. Revenue mix shifts, margin expansion already underway, utilisation rates already in the reported numbers.
How to use it: Highest confidence. Price this trigger into your base case with high probability. The question is not whether it is happening but how far it will run.
🟡 GUIDED
The trigger has been stated by management in concall transcripts or investor presentations but is not yet confirmed in actuals. It depends on management delivering on their stated plan.
How to use it: Medium confidence. Weight this trigger by the company's Credibility Pattern archetype (see Management Credibility template). A Reliable Executor's guidance gets higher probability than an Optimistic Narrator's.
🟢 OPTIONALITY
The trigger is a real possibility — structurally sound and plausible given the business — but it has not been confirmed in actuals and has not been specifically guided by management. Consensus has not modelled it. It is unpriced upside.
How to use it: Lowest confidence on its own, but highest potential value. Do not put it in your base case. Model it in your Bull Case. The re-rating upside from an OPTIONALITY trigger converting to VISIBLE can be substantial.
Rule #6 — Evidence Must Match the Tag: The conviction tag is not an expression of optimism — it is a claim about the evidence. A trigger tagged 🔵 VISIBLE must cite specific reported data. A trigger tagged 🟡 GUIDED must cite specific management commentary. A trigger tagged 🟢 OPTIONALITY must be structurally plausible but must not have been guided or confirmed. Mismatching tag and evidence is an analytical error the template is designed to prevent.

The Power of the Tag in Practice

Consider the same five triggers from the introduction, now tagged:

Trigger Tag Evidence basis Model treatment
Operating leverage kicking in as utilisation crosses 75% 🔵 VISIBLE Utilisation rate in Q3 FY26 concall: 76%. OPM expanded 180bps YoY in last 2 quarters. Base case — model continued OPM expansion through FY27
New plant coming online in Q2 FY27 🟡 GUIDED Management stated commissioning target in Q2 FY26 earnings call. Capex disbursements on track per balance sheet. Base case with 1-quarter delay buffer given Capex/Project track record
Export market entry — early-stage pipeline 🟡 GUIDED Management mentioned export conversations in Q3 FY26 call but no specific targets or timelines given. Bull case only — weak guidance without specific commitment
Premiumisation of product mix per management guidance 🔵 VISIBLE ASP has risen 8% over 4 quarters in the Quarterly P&L data. Realisation per unit visible in segment reporting. Base case — trend already established in actuals
Adjacent market opportunity in tier-2 cities 🟢 OPTIONALITY Structural case is sound given product-market fit in tier-1. Not guided. Not in any analyst model reviewed. Bull case only — unpriced but structurally credible

With tags, the five-item list becomes two base case drivers (both already in the numbers), two bull case items (one with weak guidance, one structural optionality), and one guided trigger requiring a delay buffer. That is a usable analytical framework. Without tags, it is noise.

The Trigger Scoreboard

The Growth Triggers section now closes with a Trigger Scoreboard — a summary that distils the complete catalyst picture into three outputs:

Scoreboard item What it is How to read it
Dominant Theme The single overarching growth driver that ties together the largest cluster of triggers This is the investment thesis in one phrase. If you can only hold one thing in your head about why this stock could re-rate, this is it.
Trigger Density The count and quality mix of triggers: how many VISIBLE, GUIDED, OPTIONALITY, and whether they are concentrated or spread across independent drivers High density with mostly VISIBLE tags = momentum play with multiple confirmed drivers. Low density with mostly OPTIONALITY = speculative; the re-rating depends on unpriced scenarios materialising.
Re-Rating Probability An assessed probability that the stock will attract a higher valuation multiple within the next 12 months, given the current trigger mix This is a qualitative probability (Low / Medium / High / Very High), not a quantitative prediction. It is based on the trigger density, tag quality, and whether the Dominant Theme is visible to the market or still unrecognised.

Sample Scoreboard Output

Here is what the Trigger Scoreboard looks like in practice for the illustrative manufacturing company used above:

▶ Trigger Scoreboard

Dominant Theme
Margin Re-Expansion Cycle
Trigger Density
5 triggers — 2 VISIBLE, 2 GUIDED, 1 OPTIONALITY
Re-Rating Probability
High — margin expansion already visible in actuals; new capacity adds earnings delta not in consensus

The Scoreboard is the section you cite in an investment note. Instead of listing all five triggers individually, you lead with: "Dominant Theme: Margin Re-Expansion Cycle. Two VISIBLE triggers already in the numbers; new capacity on a guided timeline. Re-Rating Probability: High." Then you reference the detailed trigger table for the evidence.

How Trigger Density informs position sizing: A stock with 4 VISIBLE triggers and 2 GUIDED ones has a dense, confirmed catalyst picture — warrant a full-size position if the business quality meets your threshold. A stock with 1 VISIBLE trigger and 3 OPTIONALITY ones has a thin confirmed base; warrant a half-size starter position and size up as OPTIONALITY triggers convert to VISIBLE or GUIDED over subsequent quarters.

How This Fits Into Your Research Workflow

The Growth Triggers conviction framework appears within the Deep Research template (Template 5 on Screener.in). This is the template that instructs the AI to browse and read the actual BSE PDF documents — concall transcripts, investor presentations, annual reports. The conviction tags are only as good as the evidence the AI can read in those documents.

This is why the template strongly recommends Gemini Deep Research as the primary AI platform for Deep Research runs. Gemini's document browsing capability is the best available for reading 12+ quarterly documents, extracting guidance items, and cross-referencing them against reported financials. Claude is the second choice — excellent at structured output and evidence citation, strong document browsing in projects.

Combining Conviction Tags with the Management Credibility Archetype

The conviction framework becomes more powerful when combined with the Management Credibility archetype from Template 3. The intersection of the two gives you the full picture:

Trigger tag + Credibility archetype = Investment treatment
🔵 VISIBLE Any archetype Base case regardless — it is already in the numbers. Archetype irrelevant here.
🟡 GUIDED Conservative Promiser or Reliable Executor Model in base case. High probability of delivery.
🟡 GUIDED Optimistic Narrator Model in base case with delay buffer or haircut. Apply to Bull case if strategic category.
🟡 GUIDED Erratic Bull case only. Do not anchor the base case to management's stated timeline.
🟢 OPTIONALITY Any archetype Bull case always. The upside case if the trigger materialises. Size position accordingly.
Do not confuse Re-Rating Probability with stock recommendation: A High Re-Rating Probability means the catalyst picture is strong and the market may assign a higher multiple. It does not account for current valuation. A stock trading at 60x PE with a High Re-Rating Probability is a different investment than one trading at 12x PE with the same Scoreboard. Always anchor the Scoreboard output to your valuation work.

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